La Liga · Matchday 10 Osasuna's Seville test: a rivalry decided by a single goal
Osasuna head to Seville having won their most recent meeting with Sevilla 2-1. With both sides short of key players, the history between them suggests a tight, low-scoring contest.
📍 Estadio Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán
All Matchday 10 matchesFull head-to-head
Match facts
Recent form
Last 5 league games, latest on the right
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Sevilla | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| Osasuna | 1.1 | 2.0 |
PreviaXI model
- Predicted score
- 1-0
- Expected goals (model)
- 1.32 – 1.16
- Double chance
- 12 · 71%1X 68% · X2 61%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 45%Over 1.5: 72% · Over 3.5: 24%
- Both teams score
- 51%
- Clean sheet
- 31% – 27%Sevilla–Osasuna
- Half-time result
- X · 44%1 30% · 2 26%
- Half-time / full-time
- 1/1 · 23%X/X 18% · 2/2 18%
- Expected corners
- 7.84.9 – 2.9 · Over 9.5: 27%
- Expected cards
- 5.42.8 – 2.6 · Over 3.5: 77%
- Most likely scores
- 1-114%
- 1-010%
- 0-09%
- 0-19%
- 2-18%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
Why the model leans towards Sevilla
- Power ratings: Sevilla -0.26 goals per game (16th of 20 in La Liga), Osasuna -0.09 (12th).
- Sevilla's attack (1.17 goals per game) meets Osasuna's defence (1.38 conceded per game).
- Osasuna's attack (1.29) meets Sevilla's defence (1.43).
- Home advantage in this competition: home sides score about 29% more goals.
- Put together, the model expects 1.32 – 1.16 goals: Sevilla 39%, draw 29%, Osasuna 32%.
Absences
Sevilla
- OutJ. Guridi · Muscle Injury
- OutMarcao · Muscle Injury
- OutI. Munoz · Injury
- OutM. Sierra · Shoulder Injury
- DoubtfulL. Stassin · Injury
Osasuna
- OutA. Bonel · Groin Injury
- OutR. Del Castillo · Muscle Injury
- OutJ. Herrando · Muscle Injury
- OutA. Oroz · Hamstring Injury
Injury and suspension list from our data provider, updated every 6 hours. It can change before kick-off.
Chance to score
Sevilla
- Félix Correia1 goals in 5 games9%
- Y. Fofana1 goals in 6 games8%
- Juan Iglesias1 goals in 9 games7%
Osasuna
- A. Budimir7 goals in 9 games44%
- Asier Osambela1 goals in 7 games8%
- Raúl García1 goals in 9 games7%
Model estimate: each player’s season goals per minute compared with his team’s, applied to the model’s expected goals for this match and his usual minutes. Players listed as out are left out.
Trends
- Sevilla have scored in each of their last 9 matches.
- Both teams scored in 6 of Sevilla’s last 8 matches.
Season stats
| · | Sevilla | Osasuna | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | All | Home | All | Away |
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-3 | 2-0-2 | 3-2-4 | 1-0-3 |
| Goals scored per game | 1.56 | 1.25 | 1.11 | 1.50 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.78 | 1.75 | 2.00 | 3.75 |
| xG per game | 1.00 | 1.10 | 1.59 | 1.67 |
| xG against per game | 1.46 | 1.60 | 1.43 | 2.06 |
| Scored in | 100% | 100% | 67% | 75% |
| Clean sheets | 22% | 25% | 33% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | 33% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 78% | 75% | 44% | 75% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | 75% | 78% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 75% | 44% | 100% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 56% | 50% | 33% | 75% |
| Shots per game | 11.8 | 13.2 | 10.8 | 8.5 |
| Shots on target per game | 4.3 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 4.0 |
| Shots on target | 36% | 30% | 40% | 47% |
| Possession | 41% | 42% | 46% | 45% |
| Passes per game | 343.7 | 329.5 | 389.9 | 423.5 |
| Pass accuracy | 77% | 76% | 80% | 84% |
| Corners per game | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 2.0 |
| Corners against per game | 3.4 | 2.8 | 4.9 | 6.2 |
| Cards per game | 3.4 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 2.5 |
| Fouls per game | 14.7 | 14.0 | 14.7 | 13.5 |
League matches this season (La Liga). Per-game averages; % = share of matches.
When goals come
Sevilla
- 0-152 / 2
- 16-301 / 3
- 31-450 / 2
- 46-605 / 2
- 61-751 / 3
- 76-90+5 / 4
Usual formation: 4-2-3-1
Osasuna
- 0-151 / 3
- 16-301 / 3
- 31-451 / 2
- 46-605 / 3
- 61-752 / 3
- 76-90+1 / 3
Usual formation: 5-4-1
Goals scored (green) and conceded (orange) by 15-minute period, league matches this season.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 9 | +30 | 27 |
| 2 |  Atletico Madrid | 10 | +12 | 25 |
| 3 |  Real Madrid | 9 | +14 | 21 |
| 4 |  Real Betis | 9 | +2 | 19 |
| 5 |  Real Sociedad | 9 | 0 | 16 |
| 6 |  Sevilla | 9 | -2 | 14 |
| 7 |  Alaves | 10 | +3 | 12 |
| 8 |  Villarreal | 10 | +1 | 12 |
| 9 |  Celta Vigo | 9 | +3 | 11 |
| 10 |  Deportivo La Coruna | 10 | 0 | 11 |
| 11 |  Osasuna | 9 | -8 | 11 |
| 12 |  Racing Santander | 10 | -11 | 11 |
| 13 |  Levante | 9 | -2 | 10 |
| 14 |  Elche | 10 | -3 | 10 |
| 15 |  Athletic Club | 8 | -1 | 9 |
| 16 |  Getafe | 9 | -6 | 9 |
| 17 |  Rayo Vallecano | 9 | -8 | 9 |
| 18 |  Espanyol | 10 | -2 | 8 |
| 19 |  Valencia | 10 | -10 | 6 |
| 20 |  Malaga | 10 | -12 | 5 |
Next matches
Sevilla
- Sun 1 NovGetafe – SevillaLa Liga
- Fri 6 NovSevilla – AlavesLa Liga
- Sun 22 NovSevilla – Real BetisLa Liga
Osasuna
- Mon 2 NovDeportivo La Coruna – OsasunaLa Liga
- Sat 7 NovOsasuna – Athletic ClubLa Liga
- Sun 22 NovOsasuna – MalagaLa Liga
Head-to-head: last 10 meetings
Sevilla 1 wins · 4 draws · Osasuna 5 wins
- 26/04/2026Osasuna2-1SevillaLa Liga
- 08/11/2025Sevilla1-0OsasunaLa Liga
- 24/04/2025Osasuna1-0SevillaLa Liga
- 02/12/2024Sevilla1-1OsasunaLa Liga
- 28/01/2024Sevilla1-1OsasunaLa Liga
- 23/09/2023Osasuna0-0SevillaLa Liga
- 26/02/2023Sevilla2-3OsasunaLa Liga
- 25/01/2023Osasuna2-1SevillaCopa del Rey
- 12/08/2022Osasuna2-1SevillaLa Liga
- 05/02/2022Osasuna0-0SevillaLa Liga
Osasuna arrive at the Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán on Monday with the most recent result between these sides in their favour, a 2-1 win in April. Across the last five meetings, every game has been decided by a single goal or ended level, and that pattern makes this one hard to call.
Sixth against eleventh, five points apart
Sevilla sit sixth in the 20-team table with 14 points from nine matches. Osasuna are 11th with 11 points. Sevilla’s goal difference is -2, while Osasuna’s is -8, a gap that shows which side has been more exposed so far. For Sevilla, a home win would strengthen their hold on the European places, while Osasuna need points to climb away from the lower half.
Close margins in the head-to-head
The rivalry has been finely balanced. Osasuna have won two of the last five meetings, including 1-0 at El Sadar in April 2025 and the 2-1 win in April 2026. Sevilla’s only victory in that run came 1-0 at home in November 2025. The other two matches ended 1-1, both in the 2024 season. Scoring has been limited, with no meeting producing more than three goals.
Form: Sevilla’s home record against Osasuna’s travel woes
Sevilla have been more solid at home than away from it, winning two and losing two of their four league games at the Sánchez-Pizjuán, scoring five and conceding seven. They have scored seven and conceded ten in their last five matches overall.
Osasuna’s away form has been a concern. They have won one of four league games on the road and conceded 15 goals in those matches. Across their last five games, they have scored five and conceded twelve.
Injuries thin both squads
Sevilla will be without J. Guridi, Marcao, I. Munoz and M. Sierra, while L. Stassin is a doubt. Osasuna are missing A. Bonel, R. Del Castillo, J. Herrando and A. Oroz, so both coaches will need to rework their line-ups.
Our prediction
PreviaXI’s model favours Sevilla, and the football case agrees. Sevilla have the home advantage and the more productive attack over the season, and Osasuna’s away defence has been leaky. Expect a cagey match with few chances, where a single moment could settle it. The most likely outcome is a narrow home win.
Sevilla 1-0 Osasuna
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