Serie A · Matchday 32 Santos vs Bahia: Three Draws in Five Meetings Set Up Another Tight Tussle
Bahia and Santos sit side by side in the Serie A table, separated by four points. Their recent meetings suggest another close, goal-filled contest.
📍 Estádio Urbano Caldeira
All Matchday 32 matchesFull head-to-head
Confirmed lineups
Santos · 4-2-3-1
- 1DiógenesG
- 23RodineiD
- 42João AlencarD
- 14Luan PeresD
- 22Á. BarrealD
- 48Gustavo Henrique PereiraM
- 8Gabriel BontempoM
- 7EvertonM
- 11Philippe CoutinhoM
- 10NeymarM
- 9Gabriel BarbosaF
Coach: Cuca
Bahia · 4-3-3
- 1RonaldoG
- 44Marcos VictorD
- 33David DuarteD
- 4KanuD
- 46Luciano JubaD
- 14ErickM
- 5N. AcevedoM
- 11Rodrigo NestorM
- 99C. OliveraF
- 9A. VélizF
- 16Erick PulgaF
Coach: Rogério Ceni
Match facts
Recent form
Last 5 league games, latest on the right
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Santos | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Bahia | 1.4 | 1.3 |
PreviaXI model
- Predicted score
- 2-1
- Expected goals (model)
- 1.60 – 1.21
- Double chance
- 12 · 74%1X 72% · X2 54%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 53%
- Both teams score
- 57%
- Expected corners
- 10.86.2 – 4.6 · Over 9.5: 61%
- Expected cards
- 5.62.9 – 2.7 · Over 3.5: 81%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
Why the model leans towards Santos
- Power ratings: Santos +0.13 goals per game (7th of 20 in Serie A), Bahia +0.23 (6th).
- Santos's attack (1.40 goals per game) meets Bahia's defence (1.25 conceded per game).
- Bahia's attack (1.48) meets Santos's defence (1.27).
- Home advantage in this competition: home sides score about 43% more goals.
- Put together, the model expects 1.60 – 1.21 goals: Santos 46%, draw 26%, Bahia 28%.
Absences
Santos
- OutArthur Melo · Muscle Injury
- OutG. Escobar · Inactive
- OutGabriel Brazao · Shoulder Injury
- OutLucas Verissimo · Injury
- OutVinicius Lira · Knee Injury
- OutWillian Arao · Inactive
Bahia
- OutR. Gomez · Yellow Cards
- OutJean Lucas · Yellow Cards
- OutLeo Vieira · Knee Injury
Injury and suspension list from our data provider, updated every 6 hours. It can change before kick-off.
Chance to score
Santos
- Gabriel Barbosa25 goals in 46 games44%
- Neymar10 goals in 26 games32%
- Gabriel Menino4 goals in 25 games14%
Bahia
- Luciano Juba10 goals in 31 games24%
- A. Véliz3 goals in 12 games17%
- Willian José6 goals in 27 games16%
Model estimate: each player’s season goals per minute compared with his team’s, applied to the model’s expected goals for this match and his usual minutes. Players listed as out are left out.
Trends
- Santos have scored in each of their last 10 matches.
- 7 of Santos’s last 8 matches had over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 7 of Santos’s last 8 matches.
Season stats
| · | Santos | Bahia | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | All | Home | All | Away |
| Won-drawn-lost | 12-9-10 | 6-5-4 | 13-10-8 | 6-4-5 |
| Goals scored per game | 1.55 | 1.47 | 1.42 | 1.40 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.48 | 1.33 | 1.26 | 1.47 |
| xG per game | 1.34 | 1.38 | 1.57 | 1.52 |
| xG against per game | 1.27 | 0.95 | 1.31 | 1.48 |
| Scored in | 90% | 87% | 84% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 19% | 20% | 29% | 27% |
| Failed to score | 10% | 13% | 16% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 74% | 67% | 61% | 60% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 90% | 93% | 81% | 73% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 53% | 52% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | 27% | 23% | 33% |
| Shots per game | 13.4 | 12.7 | 14.8 | 14.6 |
| Shots on target per game | 3.9 | 3.7 | 4.9 | 4.2 |
| Shots on target | 29% | 29% | 33% | 29% |
| Possession | 50% | 54% | 55% | 52% |
| Passes per game | 413.1 | 442.3 | 437.9 | 424.7 |
| Pass accuracy | 81% | 83% | 85% | 84% |
| Corners per game | 5.3 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 4.8 |
| Corners against per game | 5.3 | 3.9 | 5.7 | 6.7 |
| Cards per game | 3.2 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 2.4 |
| Fouls per game | 12.4 | 13.3 | 13.9 | 12.3 |
League matches this season (Serie A). Per-game averages; % = share of matches.
When goals come
Santos
- 0-152 / 4
- 16-308 / 6
- 31-456 / 8
- 46-6015 / 5
- 61-756 / 8
- 76-90+12 / 14
Usual formation: 4-2-3-1
Bahia
- 0-154 / 5
- 16-307 / 8
- 31-459 / 4
- 46-608 / 9
- 61-755 / 8
- 76-90+11 / 5
Usual formation: 4-3-3
Goals scored (green) and conceded (orange) by 15-minute period, league matches this season.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 31 | +36 | 67 |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 31 | +32 | 66 |
| 3 |  Cruzeiro | 32 | +5 | 54 |
| 4 |  Atletico Paranaense | 32 | +12 | 54 |
| 5 |  Fluminense | 31 | +10 | 51 |
| 6 |  Atletico-MG | 31 | +7 | 50 |
| 7 |  Bahia | 31 | +5 | 49 |
| 8 |  Santos | 31 | +2 | 45 |
| 9 |  Sao Paulo | 32 | +1 | 43 |
| 10 |  RB Bragantino | 31 | +3 | 41 |
| 11 |  Botafogo | 32 | -7 | 39 |
| 12 |  Coritiba | 31 | -11 | 39 |
| 13 |  Vitoria | 32 | -11 | 38 |
| 14 |  Mirassol | 32 | -8 | 37 |
| 15 |  Vasco DA Gama | 30 | -7 | 35 |
| 16 |  Internacional | 32 | -4 | 35 |
| 17 |  Corinthians | 31 | -7 | 33 |
| 18 |  Gremio | 31 | -10 | 31 |
| 19 |  Remo | 32 | -16 | 26 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 30 | -32 | 18 |
Next matches
Santos
- Thu 29 OctSantos – PalmeirasSerie A
- Tue 3 NovRB Bragantino – SantosSerie A
- Thu 19 NovCoritiba – SantosSerie A
Bahia
- Thu 29 OctBahia – Sao PauloSerie A
- Fri 6 NovCruzeiro – BahiaSerie A
- Thu 19 NovGremio – BahiaSerie A
Head-to-head: last 10 meetings
Santos 2 wins · 5 draws · Bahia 3 wins
- 25/04/2026Bahia2-2SantosSerie A
- 24/08/2025Bahia2-0SantosSerie A
- 06/04/2025Santos2-2BahiaSerie A
- 18/09/2023Bahia1-2SantosSerie A
- 31/05/2023Bahia1-1SantosCopa Do Brasil
- 17/05/2023Santos0-0BahiaCopa Do Brasil
- 10/05/2023Santos3-0BahiaSerie A
- 12/09/2021Santos0-0BahiaSerie A
- 29/05/2021Bahia3-0SantosSerie A
- 26/02/2021Bahia2-0SantosSerie A
Bahia are seventh and Santos eighth in Brazil’s 20-team Serie A, separated by just four points with 31 rounds played. A result here could shift the picture in the chase for the upper places.
Context & stakes
Bahia have 49 points and a goal difference of +5. Santos have 45 and +2. Neither side can afford to drift, and a win would open a useful gap over the other.
Form
Santos arrive with a WLDWW run over their last five matches, and they have scored nine goals in that spell while conceding seven. Bahia’s recent form is LWLLW, and their attack has gone quiet: four goals in five games, with only one win in that stretch.
Across the season, Bahia have the stronger defensive record, having conceded 39 goals to Santos’ 46 and kept nine clean sheets to Santos’ six. Santos, however, have been more productive at home, winning six league matches at the Urbano Caldeira and scoring 22 goals there.
Head-to-head
These two sides have produced plenty of goals between them. Every meeting in the last five has seen at least two goals, and three of the five ended level. The most recent, in Bahia in April 2026, finished 2-2, and the one before that in Santos ended the same way in April 2025.
The only one-sided result was a 2-0 Bahia win in August 2025. Earlier, Santos won 2-1 away at Bahia in September 2023, and the sides drew 1-1 in the Copa do Brasil that May. Bahia have been fortunate to keep pace, but the pattern is clear: neither side has dominated the other.
Team news
Santos will be without Arthur Melo (muscle injury), Gabriel Brazao (shoulder), Vinicius Lira (knee) and G. Escobar, while Lucas Verissimo is doubtful with an injury. Bahia must do without Leo Vieira (knee injury), R. Gomez and Jean Lucas, both sidelined after yellow cards.
Our prediction
PreviaXI’s model favours Santos, and the football reasons are easy to see. Santos have been the more potent side at home, and they have the better attacking numbers in recent weeks. Bahia’s defence is tougher on the road than Santos’ attack has been, but their own scoring has dropped off, and the list of absences is longer on their side. We expect a game that is open enough to produce goals, with Santos edging it on home ground.
Santos 2-1 Bahia
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