2–1 Full time Sunday 25 October

Our pick0–1Missed

Chapecoense-sc vs Fluminense: Bottom side look for a way out of trouble

Chapecoense have lost four of their last five league games and sit at the foot of Serie A. Fluminense arrive comfortably placed in the top half, with a squad missing its own key names.

📍 Arena Condá

All Matchday 32 matches

Match report

Chapecoense-sc beat Fluminense 2-1 in Serie A Regular Season round 32. Yannick Bolasie opened the scoring in the 9th minute, with Giovanni Augusto providing the assist. Claudio Rodrigues Gomes equalised for Fluminense in the 30th minute, assisted by Hulk. Giovanni Augusto then restored the home side's lead in the 56th minute, assisted by Tulio Eduardo Silva De Oliveira. No red cards were shown.

Fluminense dominated possession with 74% and took 16 shots to Chapecoense-sc's 6, although only 4 of their efforts were on target, against 3 for the hosts. Their expected goals stood at 1.45 compared with 0.59, and they won six corners to three. Guga was the top-rated player of the match with 7.8. Before kickoff, the PreviaXI model had predicted a 0-1 away win, giving Fluminense 45%, a draw 28% and Chapecoense-sc 27%, so the 2-1 home victory differed from that forecast.

Goals

9'Yannick Bolasie · Giovanni Augusto · Chapecoense-sc
30'Claudio Rodrigues Gomes · Hulk · Fluminense
56'Giovanni Augusto · Tulio Eduardo Silva De Oliveira · Chapecoense-sc

Cards

37'Camilo Reijers de Oliveira · Chapecoense-sc
57'Yago Felipe · Chapecoense-sc
90+2'Guilherme Arana · Fluminense

Match stats

Chapecoense-scFluminense

26%Possession74%

6Shots16

3Shots on target4

0.59Expected goals (xG)1.45

3Corners6

12Fouls12

2Offsides0

3Saves1

⭐ Top-rated player: Guga (Fluminense) 7.8

Ratings and statistics: API-Football.

Confirmed lineups

Chapecoense-sc · 4-2-3-1

98AndersonG
20Bruno TubarãoD
3DomaD
4João PauloD
91Bruno PachecoD
27CamiloM
88Yago FelipeM
7MarcinhoM
10Giovanni AugustoM
31GarcezM
11Y. BolasieF

Coach: Rafael Lacerda

Fluminense · 4-2-3-1

1FábioG
23GugaD
4IgnacioD
21Igor RabelloD
13Guilherme AranaD
16NonatoM
35HérculesM
34Wesley NataM
10PH GansoM
90K. SernaM
7HulkF

Coach: Marcão

Match facts

Recent form

Chapecoense-scLDLLL

FluminenseLWWLL

Last 5 league games, latest on the right

Goals per game

·	Scored	Conceded
Chapecoense-sc	1.0	2.1
Fluminense	1.6	1.3

League position

Pos	Team	P	GD	Pts
5	Fluminense	31	+10	51
20	Chapecoense-sc	30	-32	18

Last meetings

2026Fluminense2-1Chapecoense-sc
2021Fluminense3-0Chapecoense-sc
2021Chapecoense-sc1-2Fluminense
2019Fluminense1-1Chapecoense-SC
2019Chapecoense-SC1-1Fluminense

Absences

Chapecoense-sc

OutHeitor · Hamstring Injury
OutKauan · Yellow Cards
OutRafael Carvalheira · Knee Injury
OutRobert Conceicao · Knee Injury
OutVinicius Balieiro · Knee Injury

Fluminense

OutAlisson · Hip Injury
OutJohn Kennedy · Knee Injury
OutMatheus Reis · Knee Injury
OutJ. Savarino · Yellow Cards
DoubtfulMartinelli · Inactive

PreviaXI model

Chapecoense-sc27%Draw28%Fluminense45%

Predicted score: 0-1
Expected goals (model): 1.06 – 1.46
Double chance: X2 · 73%1X 55% · 12 72%
Over 2.5 goals: 46%
Both teams score: 51%
Expected corners: 9.14.5 – 4.6 · Over 9.5: 43%
Expected cards: 4.22.4 – 1.8 · Over 3.5: 61%

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →

Chapecoense have lost four of their last five league matches, scoring three goals and conceding twelve in that stretch. That slide has left them rooted to the bottom of Serie A, and the home fixture against Fluminense is a chance to start edging away from the relegation zone.

Bottom of the table, and a long climb

Chapecoense sit 20th in the 20-team table with 18 points from 30 matches and a goal difference of -32. Fluminense are fifth with 51 points from 31 games and a +10 goal difference. The gap is wide, and every home point now carries extra weight for the hosts.

Home form tells the story

At the Arena Condá, Chapecoense have won two of 14 league games, drawn five and lost seven. They have scored 19 times there but conceded 33, and only two home matches have ended without them shipping a goal. Their problems are not confined to one part of the game: 25 of their 62 league goals conceded have come between the 46th and 75th minutes, when opponents have repeatedly found space.

Fluminense have been far more productive on their own pitch, winning 11 of 16 home games, but they have been less convincing on the road, with three wins in 15 trips. Their last five league games have brought two wins and three defeats, with nine goals scored and seven conceded.

Head-to-head

Fluminense have won three of the last five meetings. The most recent came in April, when they beat Chapecoense 2-1. Chapecoense have not taken a single win from the five matches, drawing twice in 2019 and losing the other three.

Five absences for Chapecoense

Chapecoense are missing Heitor (hamstring), Kauan (yellow cards), Rafael Carvalheira and Robert Conceicao (both knee problems), and Vinicius Balieiro (knee). Fluminense have their own concerns, with Alisson (hip), John Kennedy and Matheus Reis (both knee) and J. Savarino (yellow cards) all out. Martinelli is a doubt.

Our prediction

PreviaXI’s model favours Fluminense, and the football behind that lean is convincing. Fluminense have the more dangerous attack this season, with 49 goals against Chapecoense’s 30, and they have shown they can win the big moments in this fixture. Chapecoense’s list of absences trims options at both ends of the pitch, so expect a tight, cagey contest where one goal could settle it, with Fluminense’s greater quality edging it.

Chapecoense-sc 0-1 Fluminense

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