3–2 Full time Sunday 25 October

Our pick1–0Correct result

Vasco vs Corinthians: Two Points and One Place Apart, One Edge to Find

Vasco DA Gama and Corinthians sit side by side in the Serie A table, separated by barely anything. Whoever gets the upper hand at São Januário could open a gap that the other spends weeks chasing.

📍 São Januário

All Matchday 32 matches

Match report

Vasco DA Gama beat Corinthians 3-2 in Serie A Regular Season round 32. Jose Luis Rodriguez opened the scoring for the home side in the 35th minute. Corinthians turned the match around between the 50th and 57th minutes: Gustavo Henrique equalised in the 50th, assisted by Breno Bidon, and Matheus Bidu put the visitors ahead in the 57th, assisted by Fabrizio Angileri. Marino Hinestroza struck in the 88th minute and then again in the 90th, assisted by David, to complete the comeback. No red cards were shown.

Vasco DA Gama had 63% possession and took 25 shots to Corinthians' 12, with 8 on target against 4. Expected goals were 1.79 for Vasco DA Gama and 0.77 for Corinthians, while corners were level at 3 each. Marino Hinestroza was the top-rated player with a 9.6 rating. The result differed from the pre-match view, which had predicted a 1-0 home win with a 48% probability for the home side.

Goals

35'Jose Luis Rodriguez · Vasco DA Gama
50'Gustavo Henrique · Breno Bidon · Corinthians
57'Matheus Bidu · Fabrizio Angileri · Corinthians
88'Marino Hinestroza · Vasco DA Gama
90'Marino Hinestroza · David · Vasco DA Gama

Cards

31'Rodrigo Garro · Corinthians
85'Fabrizio Angileri · Corinthians
90+6'Jesse Lingard · Corinthians
90+2'Marino Hinestroza · Vasco DA Gama

Match stats

Vasco DA GamaCorinthians

63%Possession37%

25Shots12

8Shots on target4

1.79Expected goals (xG)0.77

3Corners3

11Fouls14

2Offsides3

2Saves5

⭐ Top-rated player: M. Hinestroza (Vasco DA Gama) 9.6

Ratings and statistics: API-Football.

Confirmed lineups

Vasco DA Gama · 4-2-3-1

1Léo JardimG
2J. RodríguezD
4A. SaldiviaD
30Robert RenanD
66CuiabanoD
22A. LescanoM
5S. SosaM
11A. GómezM
23Thiago MendesM
9F. ColidioM
19Bruno DuarteF

Coach: Pedro Emanuel

Corinthians · 4-2-3-1

1Hugo SouzaG
2MatheuzinhoD
5André RamalhoD
13Gustavo HenriqueD
26F. AngileriD
61DieguinhoM
7BrenoM
49AndreM
8R. GarroM
21Matheus BiduM
9Yuri AlbertoF

Coach: C. Seedorf

Match facts

Recent form

Vasco DA GamaWWWDL

CorinthiansLLLLD

Last 5 league games, latest on the right

Goals per game

·	Scored	Conceded
Vasco DA Gama	1.2	1.4
Corinthians	1.0	1.3

League position

Pos	Team	P	GD	Pts
15	Vasco DA Gama	30	-7	35
16	Corinthians	31	-7	33

Last meetings

2026Corinthians1-0Vasco DA Gama
2025Vasco DA Gama1-2Corinthians
2025Corinthians0-0Vasco DA Gama
2025Vasco DA Gama2-3Corinthians
2025Corinthians3-0Vasco DA Gama

Absences

Vasco DA Gama

OutCauan Barros · Inactive
OutC. Cuesta · Inactive
OutMateus Carvalho · Knee Injury

Corinthians

OutKayke · Knee Injury
OutZ. Labyad · Knee Injury
OutRaniele · Inactive

PreviaXI model

Vasco DA Gama48%Draw28%Corinthians24%

Predicted score: 1-0
Expected goals (model): 1.47 – 0.96
Double chance: 1X · 76%12 72% · X2 52%
Over 2.5 goals: 44%
Both teams score: 48%
Expected corners: 9.35.5 – 3.8 · Over 9.5: 45%
Expected cards: 5.02.6 – 2.4 · Over 3.5: 72%

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →

Only two points and a single place separate Vasco DA Gama from Corinthians, which makes this Serie A meeting at São Januário in Rio de Janeiro far bigger than the two clubs’ positions suggest. Vasco are 15th with 35 points from 30 matches, while Corinthians are 16th on 33 from 31, and both carry the same goal difference of minus seven. In a 20-team table where every result shifts the picture, three points here would give one side a real edge in a race neither can afford to lose.

Vasco’s home comfort against Corinthians’ slump

Vasco arrive in better shape. They have won three of their last five matches and scored nine goals in that run, while conceding three. Corinthians have collected only one draw and four defeats in the same span, scoring five and shipping twelve.

Home form has been Vasco’s strength over the season. They have won seven of 15 games at São Januário and scored 21 of their 36 goals there. Corinthians have struggled on the road, winning three of 15 away matches and conceding 22 times.

Corinthians’ grip on the head-to-head

Corinthians have dominated recent meetings. They have won four of the last five against Vasco, with the only exception a goalless draw in the Copa do Brasil in December. Their most recent victory was a 1-0 win in April, and they also beat Vasco 3-0 in April 2025. Vasco have not taken a point from a league meeting with Corinthians in that period.

Absences on both sides

Vasco will be without Cauan Barros and C. Cuesta, who are both inactive, and Mateus Carvalho, who is out with a knee injury. Corinthians are also missing three players: Kayke and Z. Labyad with knee problems, and Raniele, who is inactive.

Our prediction

PreviaXI’s model favours the home side, and the outlook points to a tight, low-scoring contest. Vasco look more likely to create the openings at São Januário, and their home record gives them the stronger case for taking the lead. Corinthians have been struggling to score away from home and have conceded heavily on the road, so a narrow win for the hosts looks most likely.

Vasco DA Gama 1-0 Corinthians

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