Serie A · Matchday 32 
Our pick1–0Missed
Sao Paulo's road struggles meet Mirassol's home strength
Sao Paulo travel to Mirassol with the better league position but a poor away record. Mirassol's home form and recent head-to-head results give the hosts the edge.
📍 José Maria de Campos Maia
Match report
Mirassol and Sao Paulo drew 1-1 in Serie A Regular Season round 32. Mirassol took the lead in the 7th minute through an own goal by Rafael. Sao Paulo equalised in the 39th minute, with Pedro Lima scoring from an assist by Damian Bobadilla.
Sao Paulo had more of the ball, 55% to 45%, while Mirassol took 18 shots to their 14 and had four on target to their three. Both sides won seven corners, and the expected goals were 1.32 for Mirassol and 1.13 for Sao Paulo. Pedro Lima was the top-rated player with 7.8. Before kickoff, PreviaXI's model had given Mirassol a 48% chance of winning, 28% for a draw and 24% for Sao Paulo, with a predicted score of 1-0. The match finished level.
Goals
- 7'Rafael (o.g.) · Mirassol
- 39'Pedro Lima · Damian Bobadilla · Sao Paulo
Cards
- 17'Djhordney Ferreira · Sao Paulo
- 26'Iago Amaral Borduchi · Sao Paulo
- 61'Carlos Eduardo de Oliveira Alve · Mirassol
- 70'Willian Estefani Machado · Mirassol
- 83'Wallisson · Mirassol
Match stats
⭐ Top-rated player: Pedro Lima (Sao Paulo) 7.8
Ratings and statistics: API-Football.
Confirmed lineups
Mirassol · 4-2-3-1
- 22WalterG
- 32Igor FormigaD
- 34João VictorD
- 3Willian MachadoD
- 6ReinaldoD
- 25Neto MouraM
- 27DenilsonM
- 95EdsonM
- 33EduardoM
- 77AlessonM
- 30Bruno SantosF
Coach: Rafael Guanaes
Sao Paulo · 3-4-2-1
- 23RafaelG
- 28NewtonD
- 5R. ArboledaD
- 54Osorio LuisD
- 32Pedro LimaM
- 48D. FerreiraM
- 8Marcos AntônioM
- 12IagoM
- 7Lucas MouraM
- 16D. BobadillaM
- 10LucianoF
Coach: Dorival Júnior
Match facts
Recent form
Last 5 league games, latest on the right
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Mirassol | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Sao Paulo | 1.2 | 1.1 |
League position
| Pos | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Sao Paulo | 31 | +1 | 42 |
| 14 | Mirassol | 31 | -8 | 36 |
Last meetings
- 2026Sao Paulo1-0Mirassol
- 2026Mirassol3-0Sao Paulo
- 2025Mirassol3-0Sao Paulo
- 2025Sao Paulo0-2Mirassol
- 2025Sao Paulo4-1Mirassol
Absences
Mirassol
- OutAndre Luis · Yellow Cards
- OutNegueba · Knee Injury
- DoubtfulJose Aldo · Muscle Injury
Sao Paulo
- OutN. Bosshardt · Inactive
- OutButa · Knee Injury
- OutCauly · Inactive
- OutD. Duarte · Knee Injury
- DoubtfulFerreira · Injury
PreviaXI model
- Predicted score
- 1-0
- Expected goals (model)
- 1.49 – 1.01
- Double chance
- 1X · 76%12 72% · X2 52%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 46%
- Both teams score
- 50%
- Expected corners
- 11.15.8 – 5.3 · Over 9.5: 65%
- Expected cards
- 4.62.3 – 2.3 · Over 3.5: 67%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
Sao Paulo head to Mirassol ninth in the table with 42 points, but their away record tells a different story. They have won only two of 15 road games this season, lost ten, and scored just 11 away goals. Mirassol are 14th on 36 points, yet they have been far more convincing at the José Maria de Campos Maia, winning seven of 16 home matches and scoring 23 times there.
Two sides, two different problems
Sao Paulo arrive with a mixed run, winning two of their last five (WWLLW), and they have kept only one clean sheet on the road all season. Their away defence has been the weak point, conceding 22 times in 15 games, with a worrying spell of goals between the 46th and 60th minutes.
Mirassol’s last five (WLDWD) show a team that is hard to beat but not always decisive. At home they have kept three clean sheets, and their attack averages 1.4 goals per game at the ground. The question is whether that home edge can overcome a Sao Paulo side that has struggled to score away from home.
Recent meetings tilt toward Mirassol
The head-to-head is closely balanced but leans towards the hosts. Mirassol have won three of the last five meetings, including a 3-0 win in October 2025 and another 3-0 win in January 2026. Sao Paulo’s best result in that run was a 1-0 win in April 2026, which shows they can win these games with a narrow margin.
Absences on both sides
Mirassol are without Andre Luis, who misses the match through yellow card suspension, and Negueba, sidelined by a knee injury. Jose Aldo is a doubt with a muscle problem.
Sao Paulo face a bigger list of absences. Buta and D. Duarte are out with knee injuries, while N. Bosshardt and Cauly are unavailable. Ferreira is a doubt through injury.
Our prediction
PreviaXI’s model favours Mirassol, and the football logic points the same way. The hosts have been much stronger at home, and Sao Paulo’s away attack has produced very little on the road. Expect a tight, low-scoring game in which the first goal could decide the result.
Mirassol 1-0 Sao Paulo
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