Serie A · Matchday 8 
Udinese vs AC Milan preview: can the struggling hosts trouble the favourites?
AC Milan arrive in Udine looking to strengthen their hold on a top-four place, while Udinese need to stop a run that has produced no points in five league games. Can the underdogs make the favourites uncomfortable?
📍 Bluenergy Stadium
All Matchday 8 matchesFull head-to-head
Match facts
Recent form
Last 5 league games, latest on the right
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Udinese | 1.3 | 2.3 |
| AC Milan | 2.0 | 1.0 |
PreviaXI model
- Predicted score
- 0-1
- Expected goals (model)
- 1.11 – 1.65
- Double chance
- 12 · 76%1X 50% · X2 74%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 52%
- Both teams score
- 54%
- Expected corners
- 8.34.4 – 3.9 · Over 9.5: 33%
- Expected cards
- 3.41.8 – 1.6 · Over 3.5: 45%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
Why the model leans towards AC Milan
- Power ratings: Udinese -0.34 goals per game (16th of 20 in Serie A), AC Milan +0.36 (6th).
- Udinese's attack (1.17 goals per game) meets AC Milan's defence (1.17 conceded per game).
- AC Milan's attack (1.53) meets Udinese's defence (1.51).
- Home advantage in this competition: home sides score about 15% more goals.
- Put together, the model expects 1.11 – 1.65 goals: Udinese 26%, draw 24%, AC Milan 50%.
Absences
Udinese
- OutD. Alaba · Calf Injury
- OutV. Bayo · Thigh Injury
- OutI. Gueye · Ankle Injury
- DoubtfulN. Zaniolo · Thigh Injury
AC Milan
- OutS. Chukwueze · Hip Injury
- OutM. Gabbia · Thigh Injury
- OutM. Gila · Ankle Injury
- OutD. Moreira · Thigh Injury
- OutA. Rabiot · Calf Injury
- OutA. Saelemaekers · Ankle Injury
- DoubtfulG. Ramos · Calf Injury
Injury and suspension list from our data provider, updated every 6 hours. It can change before kick-off.
Chance to score
Udinese
- J. Ekkelenkamp3 goals in 8 games20%
- H. Kamara2 goals in 9 games12%
- K. Davis1 goals in 8 games7%
AC Milan
- A. Cissè5 goals in 8 games31%
- Gonçalo Ramos3 goals in 9 games21%
- C. Pulišić1 goals in 6 games9%
Model estimate: each player’s season goals per minute compared with his team’s, applied to the model’s expected goals for this match and his usual minutes. Players listed as out are left out.
Trends
- Udinese have lost their last 5 matches.
Season stats
| · | Udinese | AC Milan | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | All | Home | All | Away |
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-1-5 | 0-1-3 | 4-3-0 | 1-3-0 |
| Goals scored per game | 1.29 | 0.50 | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Goals conceded per game | 2.29 | 1.75 | 1.00 | 1.25 |
| xG per game | 1.19 | 1.42 | 1.67 | 1.17 |
| xG against per game | 2.18 | 1.98 | 1.26 | 1.52 |
| Scored in | 71% | 50% | 100% | 100% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | 29% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 29% | 50% | 0% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 50% | 71% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86% | 75% | 100% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 50% | 57% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | 0% | 29% | 25% |
| Shots per game | 14.3 | 16.8 | 12.3 | 12.2 |
| Shots on target per game | 3.9 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 4.5 |
| Shots on target | 27% | 24% | 38% | 37% |
| Possession | 51% | 53% | 60% | 59% |
| Passes per game | 469.1 | 473.0 | 583.7 | 569.5 |
| Pass accuracy | 85% | 84% | 89% | 89% |
| Corners per game | 3.9 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 3.8 |
| Corners against per game | 5.7 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 3.5 |
| Cards per game | 1.9 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 2.8 |
| Fouls per game | 11.0 | 11.5 | 9.3 | 11.2 |
League matches this season (Serie A). Per-game averages; % = share of matches.
When goals come
Udinese
- 0-151 / 1
- 16-302 / 1
- 31-454 / 4
- 46-601 / 3
- 61-750 / 4
- 76-90+1 / 3
Usual formation: 3-4-2-1
AC Milan
- 0-151 / 1
- 16-301 / 0
- 31-451 / 1
- 46-601 / 0
- 61-759 / 2
- 76-90+0 / 4
Usual formation: 3-4-2-1
Goals scored (green) and conceded (orange) by 15-minute period, league matches this season.
Serie A table
Next matches
Udinese
- Wed 28 OctParma – UdineseSerie A
- Sat 31 OctUdinese – AS RomaSerie A
- Fri 6 NovVenezia – UdineseSerie A
AC Milan
- Wed 28 OctAC Milan – BolognaSerie A
- Sat 31 OctAC Milan – InterSerie A
- Thu 5 NovAC Milan – Ferencvarosi TCUEFA Europa League
Head-to-head: last 10 meetings
Udinese 3 wins · 2 draws · AC Milan 5 wins
- 11/04/2026AC Milan0-3UdineseSerie A
- 20/09/2025Udinese0-3AC MilanSerie A
- 11/04/2025Udinese0-4AC MilanSerie A
- 19/10/2024AC Milan1-0UdineseSerie A
- 20/01/2024Udinese2-3AC MilanSerie A
- 04/11/2023AC Milan0-1UdineseSerie A
- 18/03/2023Udinese3-1AC MilanSerie A
- 13/08/2022AC Milan4-2UdineseSerie A
- 25/02/2022AC Milan1-1UdineseSerie A
- 11/12/2021Udinese1-1AC MilanSerie A
AC Milan can use Sunday’s trip to Udine to tighten their grip on a top-four place, while Udinese must halt a slide that has yielded no points in five league matches.
Milan’s push against Udinese’s freefall
On paper, this is a classic favourite-versus-underdog fixture. Milan sit fourth with 15 points from seven games and a goal difference of plus seven. Udinese are 16th with four points and a goal difference of minus seven. The question for the hosts is whether they can make a side with far more quality than their current league position suggests look uncomfortable.
Udinese’s collapse, Milan’s momentum
Udinese have lost their last five league matches, scoring five goals and conceding 13 in that spell. They have yet to win at the Bluenergy Stadium this season, managing one draw and three defeats at home.
Milan have been much more reliable. They are unbeaten in seven league games, with four wins and three draws, and have scored 10 goals in their last five while conceding six. Their away record is similarly solid: one win and three draws on the road, with no defeats.
Milan’s recent edge, with one exception
Milan have won four of the last five meetings between the sides. Udinese’s only win in that stretch came in April, when they beat Milan 3-0 in Milan. Before that, Milan had won 4-0 in Udine in April 2025 and 3-0 in Udine in September 2025, with a 1-0 win and a 3-2 victory also in their favour.
Injuries on both benches
Udinese will be without D. Alaba (calf), V. Bayo (thigh) and I. Gueye (ankle), while N. Zaniolo is a doubt with a thigh problem.
Milan have their own problems. S. Chukwueze (hip), M. Gabbia (thigh) and A. Saelemaekers (ankle) are all ruled out, and G. Ramos (calf) is a question mark.
Our prediction
PreviaXI’s statistical model favours AC Milan, and the football behind that lean is clear. Milan have the more settled attack and the better defensive record away from home, while Udinese have struggled to score at their own ground and have been beaten in five successive matches. Udinese’s best chance is to stay compact and hope a set piece or a counter-attack can exploit the absences at the back, but the pattern of recent meetings suggests Milan will find a way to take the points.
Udinese 0-1 AC Milan
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