Serie A · Matchday 8 
Inter vs Fiorentina: Can the Underdogs Trouble the Leaders?
Inter top Serie A on 19 points, while Fiorentina have four from seven and sit 18th. Can the visitors make San Siro uncomfortable?
📍 San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza
All Matchday 8 matchesFull head-to-head
Match facts
Recent form
Last 5 league games, latest on the right
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Inter | 3.0 | 1.3 |
| Fiorentina | 1.1 | 2.4 |
PreviaXI model
- Predicted score
- 2-1
- Expected goals (model)
- 2.40 – 1.01
- Double chance
- 1X · 85%12 83% · X2 32%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 66%
- Both teams score
- 58%
- Expected corners
- 9.46.4 – 3.0 · Over 9.5: 46%
- Expected cards
- 4.01.9 – 2.1 · Over 3.5: 57%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
Why the model leans towards Inter
- Power ratings: Inter +1.05 goals per game (1st of 20 in Serie A), Fiorentina -0.06 (11th).
- Inter's attack (2.12 goals per game) meets Fiorentina's defence (1.38 conceded per game).
- Fiorentina's attack (1.32) meets Inter's defence (1.07).
- Home advantage in this competition: home sides score about 15% more goals.
- Put together, the model expects 2.40 – 1.01 goals: Inter 68%, draw 17%, Fiorentina 15%.
Absences
Inter
- OutC. Jones · Thigh Injury
- OutLuis Henrique · Thigh Injury
- OutL. Martinez · Thigh Injury
- OutB. Pavard · Thigh Injury
- OutJ. Stones · Injury
Fiorentina
- OutF. Parisi · Knee Injury
- OutR. Sottil · Back Injury
- DoubtfulA. Atta · Abdominal strain
- DoubtfulL. Ranieri · Leg Injury
Injury and suspension list from our data provider, updated every 6 hours. It can change before kick-off.
Chance to score
Inter
- Carlos Augusto4 goals in 7 games28%
- M. Thuram4 goals in 9 games24%
- H. Çalhanoğlu3 goals in 8 games19%
Fiorentina
- Mateo Pellegrino3 goals in 8 games15%
- Franco Mastantuono3 goals in 9 games14%
- L. Ranieri1 goals in 5 games7%
Model estimate: each player’s season goals per minute compared with his team’s, applied to the model’s expected goals for this match and his usual minutes. Players listed as out are left out.
Trends
- Inter have scored in each of their last 20 matches.
- 7 of Inter’s last 8 matches had over 2.5 goals.
- 6 of Fiorentina’s last 8 matches had over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 6 of Inter’s last 8 matches.
- Both teams scored in 6 of Fiorentina’s last 8 matches.
Season stats
| · | Inter | Fiorentina | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | All | Home | All | Away |
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-0 | 4-0-0 | 1-1-5 | 1-0-2 |
| Goals scored per game | 3.00 | 3.75 | 1.14 | 1.67 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.29 | 1.50 | 2.43 | 2.67 |
| xG per game | 2.87 | 2.59 | 1.65 | 1.49 |
| xG against per game | 1.17 | 1.26 | 1.39 | 1.67 |
| Scored in | 100% | 100% | 71% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 25% | 0% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | 29% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 75% | 71% | 67% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 86% | 100% | 86% | 100% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 71% | 75% | 43% | 67% |
| Shots per game | 21.7 | 22.0 | 16.6 | 13.7 |
| Shots on target per game | 7.3 | 7.8 | 5.4 | 5.7 |
| Shots on target | 34% | 35% | 33% | 42% |
| Possession | 63% | 65% | 47% | 46% |
| Passes per game | 623.6 | 631.2 | 394.7 | 386.3 |
| Pass accuracy | 90% | 91% | 84% | 83% |
| Corners per game | 5.7 | 6.5 | 5.3 | 3.7 |
| Corners against per game | 3.4 | 2.5 | 3.9 | 2.3 |
| Cards per game | 1.6 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Fouls per game | 8.1 | 8.5 | 11.0 | 9.0 |
League matches this season (Serie A). Per-game averages; % = share of matches.
When goals come
Inter
- 0-153 / 3
- 16-302 / 2
- 31-453 / 1
- 46-605 / 2
- 61-753 / 0
- 76-90+5 / 1
Usual formation: 3-5-2
Fiorentina
- 0-150 / 2
- 16-302 / 4
- 31-451 / 3
- 46-602 / 3
- 61-751 / 3
- 76-90+1 / 3
Usual formation: 4-2-3-1
Goals scored (green) and conceded (orange) by 15-minute period, league matches this season.
Serie A table
Next matches
Inter
- Wed 28 OctVenezia – InterSerie A
- Sat 31 OctAC Milan – InterSerie A
- Tue 3 NovFeyenoord – InterUEFA Champions League
Fiorentina
- Thu 29 OctFiorentina – AtalantaSerie A
- Mon 2 NovSassuolo – FiorentinaSerie A
- Sun 8 NovFiorentina – JuventusSerie A
Head-to-head: last 10 meetings
Inter 6 wins · 2 draws · Fiorentina 2 wins
- 22/03/2026Fiorentina1-1InterSerie A
- 29/10/2025Inter3-0FiorentinaSerie A
- 10/02/2025Inter2-1FiorentinaSerie A
- 06/02/2025Fiorentina3-0InterSerie A
- 28/01/2024Fiorentina0-1InterSerie A
- 03/09/2023Inter4-0FiorentinaSerie A
- 24/05/2023Fiorentina1-2InterCoppa Italia
- 01/04/2023Inter0-1FiorentinaSerie A
- 22/10/2022Fiorentina3-4InterSerie A
- 19/03/2022Inter1-1FiorentinaSerie A
Fiorentina have four points from seven Serie A games and sit 18th in a 20-team table. Inter lead the league on 19 points with a goal difference of +12. On paper this is a title-chasing side against a team still searching for its first real foothold of the season, and the question for the visitors is whether that gap can become a problem for the hosts.
A gap that looks wide on paper
Inter have been almost untouchable at home. They have won all four of their league games at San Siro this season, scoring 15 and conceding six. Fiorentina’s record tells a harder story: their only win of the campaign came on the road, and they have lost five of seven overall.
Rhythm against a rocky spell
Inter arrive in good shape. Their last five league results read WWDWW, with 16 goals scored and eight conceded. Fiorentina’s recent run is LLDWL, with eight goals scored and ten conceded. The visitors have been leaking goals and struggling to create them, which makes their task at the other end of the pitch considerably harder.
Fiorentina have done this before
The head-to-head record favours Inter, who have won three of the last five meetings, with one draw and one Fiorentina win. That win, a 3-0 victory in Florence, is the reminder the visitors will lean on. The most recent meeting ended 1-1 in March, showing that Fiorentina have recently been able to hold their own against Inter.
Injury doubts on both sides
Inter will be without five players: C. Jones, Luis Henrique, L. Martinez and B. Pavard, all with thigh injuries, and J. Stones, who is out with an injury. Fiorentina are missing F. Parisi (knee) and R. Sottil (back), while A. Atta (abdominal strain) and L. Ranieri (leg) are both fitness doubts.
Our prediction
PreviaXI’s model favours Inter, and the football behind that lean is clear. Inter create far more chances at home, and their attack has the quality to punish a Fiorentina defence that has conceded at a steady rate on the road. Fiorentina have the know-how to make a contest of it, and the game should be open enough for them to carry a threat, but the hosts look the more likely side to take the three points.
Inter 2-1 Fiorentina
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