Serie A · Matchday 8 
Genoa vs Venezia: Bottom-Table Rivals Fight for a Way Out
Venezia sit rock bottom of Serie A and need points quickly to start climbing out of the relegation zone when they travel to Genoa on Sunday. Genoa are only a few places and a handful of points better off, so neither side can afford another slip.
📍 Luigi Ferraris
All Matchday 8 matchesFull head-to-head
Match facts
Recent form
Last 5 league games, latest on the right
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Genoa | 0.7 | 1.9 |
| Venezia | 0.9 | 2.3 |
PreviaXI model
- Predicted score
- 2-1
- Expected goals (model)
- 1.78 – 1.24
- Double chance
- 12 · 77%1X 73% · X2 50%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 58%
- Both teams score
- 59%
- Expected corners
- 8.64.8 – 3.8 · Over 9.5: 36%
- Expected cards
- 4.51.6 – 2.9 · Over 3.5: 66%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
Why the model leans towards Genoa
- Power ratings: Genoa -0.21 goals per game (14th of 20 in Serie A), Venezia -0.64 (20th).
- Genoa's attack (1.11 goals per game) meets Venezia's defence (1.95 conceded per game).
- Venezia's attack (1.31) meets Genoa's defence (1.32).
- Home advantage in this competition: home sides score about 15% more goals.
- Put together, the model expects 1.78 – 1.24 goals: Genoa 50%, draw 23%, Venezia 27%.
Absences
Genoa
- OutL. Colombo · Ankle Injury
- OutL. Venturino · Knee Injury
- DoubtfulE. Havel · Ankle Injury
- DoubtfulF. Meichtry · Muscle Injury
- DoubtfulD. Sow · Thigh Injury
Venezia
- OutA. Adorante · Hernia
- OutG. Busio · Thigh Injury
- OutB. Franjic · Shoulder Injury
- OutM. Sverko · Hip Injury
- DoubtfulA. Bella-Kotchap · Thigh Injury
- DoubtfulT. Correia · Thigh Injury
Injury and suspension list from our data provider, updated every 6 hours. It can change before kick-off.
Chance to score
Genoa
- M. Osmajić3 goals in 6 games40%
- J. Vásquez2 goals in 8 games24%
- T. Baldanzi1 goals in 7 games13%
Venezia
- A. Adams4 goals in 9 games30%
- J. Yeboah2 goals in 8 games18%
- A. Hainaut2 goals in 8 games18%
Model estimate: each player’s season goals per minute compared with his team’s, applied to the model’s expected goals for this match and his usual minutes. Players listed as out are left out.
Trends
- Genoa failed to score in 4 of their last 8 matches.
Season stats
| · | Genoa | Venezia | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | All | Home | All | Away |
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-1-5 | 1-1-2 | 1-0-6 | 0-0-3 |
| Goals scored per game | 0.71 | 1.00 | 0.86 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.86 | 2.00 | 2.29 | 2.67 |
| xG per game | 0.91 | 1.20 | 1.55 | 1.82 |
| xG against per game | 1.25 | 1.32 | 2.32 | 2.10 |
| Scored in | 57% | 75% | 57% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | 14% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 43% | 25% | 43% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 75% | 43% | 67% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86% | 100% | 86% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 50% | 43% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 14% | 25% | 43% | 67% |
| Shots per game | 11.1 | 12.2 | 14.0 | 14.3 |
| Shots on target per game | 2.9 | 3.2 | 4.3 | 3.3 |
| Shots on target | 26% | 26% | 31% | 23% |
| Possession | 44% | 41% | 54% | 56% |
| Passes per game | 381.4 | 335.0 | 474.0 | 443.7 |
| Pass accuracy | 79% | 78% | 84% | 84% |
| Corners per game | 4.4 | 5.2 | 3.7 | 4.0 |
| Corners against per game | 4.7 | 5.5 | 5.1 | 5.0 |
| Cards per game | 3.0 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 3.0 |
| Fouls per game | 9.7 | 10.2 | 10.1 | 10.3 |
League matches this season (Serie A). Per-game averages; % = share of matches.
When goals come
Genoa
- 0-152 / 1
- 16-301 / 3
- 31-450 / 2
- 46-601 / 1
- 61-752 / 1
- 76-90+0 / 4
Usual formation: 3-4-2-1
Venezia
- 0-150 / 2
- 16-301 / 4
- 31-451 / 1
- 46-601 / 3
- 61-752 / 2
- 76-90+2 / 3
Usual formation: 3-5-2
Goals scored (green) and conceded (orange) by 15-minute period, league matches this season.
Serie A table
Next matches
Genoa
- Wed 28 OctGenoa – JuventusSerie A
- Sun 1 NovLecce – GenoaSerie A
- Sun 8 NovGenoa – AC MilanSerie A
Venezia
- Wed 28 OctVenezia – InterSerie A
- Sun 1 NovComo – VeneziaSerie A
- Fri 6 NovVenezia – UdineseSerie A
Head-to-head: last 8 meetings
Genoa 4 wins · 2 draws · Venezia 2 wins
- 17/02/2025Genoa2-0VeneziaSerie A
- 21/09/2024Venezia2-0GenoaSerie A
- 20/07/2024Venezia1-3GenoaFriendlies Clubs
- 22/07/2023Genoa1-4VeneziaFriendlies Clubs
- 16/01/2023Genoa1-0VeneziaSerie B
- 14/08/2022Venezia1-2GenoaSerie B
- 20/02/2022Venezia1-1GenoaSerie A
- 31/10/2021Genoa0-0VeneziaSerie A
Venezia are rooted to the foot of Serie A, and a trip to Genoa on Sunday is a chance to start climbing out of the relegation zone.
Relegation pressure at the Ferraris
Venezia are 20th with three points from seven matches and a goal difference of -10. Genoa are 17th with four points and a -8 record. The gap is narrow, but it is the difference between a side fighting its way back into contention and one still searching for its first real foothold. A win for either would give them breathing room, and a defeat could sink them deeper into the bottom three.
Venezia’s six-game slump
Venezia have lost six of their seven league matches, with their only win coming in the most recent stretch of the campaign. They have scored six times in their last five games but conceded 12, a pattern that has left them struggling to protect any lead. Genoa have also been inconsistent, picking up one win and one draw from their seven games and conceding 13 goals. Their recent run has brought five goals scored and ten conceded in five matches.
Serie A meetings split evenly
The last two league meetings produced home wins. Genoa beat Venezia 2-0 at the Ferraris in February 2025, while Venezia returned the favour 2-0 in September 2024. Genoa also won 1-0 in Serie B in January 2023, so the rivalry has been close and low-scoring.
Injury headaches on both sides
Genoa will be without L. Colombo (ankle) and L. Venturino (knee). E. Havel, F. Meichtry and D. Sow are all doubtful, with ankle, muscle and thigh problems respectively.
Venezia face a longer list of absentees. A. Adorante (hernia), G. Busio (thigh), B. Franjic (shoulder) and M. Sverko (hip) are all ruled out. A. Bella-Kotchap and T. Correia are doubtful with thigh injuries.
Our prediction
PreviaXI’s model favours Genoa, and the football logic supports it. Genoa have the stronger home record in this pairing, and their attacking threat has been more regular despite their defensive problems. Venezia’s injury list and recent struggles to keep clean sheets point to a game that could be open and tight, with Genoa edging the decisive moment.
Genoa 2-1 Venezia
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