Bundesliga · Matchday 7 Freiburg vs Bayern: Top-four rivals fight for the summit
Two of the Bundesliga's top four meet in Freiburg on Sunday, with first place and a place at the front of the title race on the line. Bayern arrive with the better attack, while Freiburg have built their season around a fortress at the Europa-Park Stadion.
📍 Europa-Park-Stadion
All Matchday 7 matchesFull head-to-head
Match facts
Recent form
Last 5 league games, latest on the right
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| Bayern München | 3.7 | 0.8 |
PreviaXI model
- Predicted score
- 1-2
- Expected goals (model)
- 1.38 – 2.35
- Double chance
- 12 · 80%1X 41% · X2 79%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 72%
- Both teams score
- 68%
- Expected corners
- 8.53.6 – 4.9 · Over 9.5: 34%
- Expected cards
- 3.41.6 – 1.8 · Over 3.5: 42%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
Why the model leans towards Bayern München
- Power ratings: SC Freiburg +0.22 goals per game (6th of 18 in Bundesliga), Bayern München +1.89 (1st).
- SC Freiburg's attack (1.63 goals per game) meets Bayern München's defence (1.23 conceded per game).
- Bayern München's attack (3.12) meets SC Freiburg's defence (1.41).
- Home advantage in this competition: home sides score about 30% more goals.
- Put together, the model expects 1.38 – 2.35 goals: SC Freiburg 21%, draw 20%, Bayern München 59%.
Absences
SC Freiburg
- DoubtfulY. Engelhardt · Injury
- DoubtfulB. Yilmaz · Lacking Match Fitness
Bayern München
- OutT. Buchmann · Knee Injury
- OutL. Diaz · Muscle Injury
- OutKim Min-Jae · Knee Injury
- OutJ. Kimmich · Personal Reasons
- OutJ. Musiala · Muscle Injury
Injury and suspension list from our data provider, updated every 6 hours. It can change before kick-off.
Chance to score
SC Freiburg
- I. Matanović6 goals in 11 games19%
- M. Eggestein4 goals in 11 games14%
- Y. Suzuki4 goals in 10 games14%
Bayern München
- H. Kane10 goals in 11 games38%
- M. Olise9 goals in 10 games37%
- A. Pavlović2 goals in 10 games10%
Model estimate: each player’s season goals per minute compared with his team’s, applied to the model’s expected goals for this match and his usual minutes. Players listed as out are left out.
Trends
- Bayern München are unbeaten in their last 13 matches.
- Bayern München are unbeaten in the last 7 meetings with SC Freiburg.
- SC Freiburg have won their last 5 home matches.
- 7 of SC Freiburg’s last 8 matches had over 2.5 goals.
- 7 of Bayern München’s last 8 matches had over 2.5 goals.
- Bayern München have scored in each of their last 7 matches.
Season stats
| · | SC Freiburg | Bayern München | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | All | Home | All | Away |
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-1 | 3-0-0 | 4-2-0 | 1-2-0 |
| Goals scored per game | 2.50 | 3.67 | 3.67 | 1.33 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.67 | 0.83 | 1.00 |
| xG per game | 1.94 | 2.04 | 3.48 | 3.24 |
| xG against per game | 0.94 | 0.35 | 0.92 | 1.17 |
| Scored in | 100% | 100% | 83% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% | 33% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | 17% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 67% | 67% | 67% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | 100% | 83% | 67% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 83% | 100% | 83% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 50% | 67% | 67% | 33% |
| Shots per game | 16.2 | 16.0 | 24.3 | 24.3 |
| Shots on target per game | 5.3 | 6.0 | 10.3 | 7.0 |
| Shots on target | 33% | 38% | 42% | 29% |
| Possession | 53% | 55% | 69% | 75% |
| Passes per game | 464.7 | 486.3 | 706.5 | 794.3 |
| Pass accuracy | 83% | 86% | 89% | 91% |
| Corners per game | 5.2 | 6.3 | 9.7 | 9.7 |
| Corners against per game | 3.5 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 2.7 |
| Cards per game | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| Fouls per game | 9.5 | 10.3 | 10.5 | 8.7 |
League matches this season (Bundesliga). Per-game averages; % = share of matches.
When goals come
SC Freiburg
- 0-152 / 1
- 16-304 / 2
- 31-452 / 1
- 46-603 / 0
- 61-750 / 0
- 76-90+4 / 2
Usual formation: 4-2-3-1
Bayern München
- 0-151 / 1
- 16-304 / 0
- 31-453 / 0
- 46-605 / 2
- 61-754 / 2
- 76-90+4 / 1
Usual formation: 4-2-3-1
Goals scored (green) and conceded (orange) by 15-minute period, league matches this season.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Borussia Dortmund | 7 | +8 | 17 |
| 2 |  Bayern München | 6 | +17 | 14 |
| 3 |  SC Freiburg | 6 | +9 | 13 |
| 4 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 6 | +7 | 13 |
| 5 |  RB Leipzig | 7 | +9 | 12 |
| 6 |  Werder Bremen | 7 | +1 | 12 |
| 7 |  FSV Mainz 05 | 7 | +3 | 10 |
| 8 |  SV Elversberg | 7 | -3 | 10 |
| 9 |  FC Augsburg | 7 | +4 | 9 |
| 10 |  Hamburger SV | 7 | -10 | 9 |
| 11 |  1. FC Köln | 7 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 |  SC Paderborn 07 | 7 | -3 | 8 |
| 13 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 7 | -7 | 8 |
| 14 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 6 | -3 | 6 |
| 15 |  VfB Stuttgart | 7 | -3 | 6 |
| 16 |  FC Schalke 04 | 7 | -3 | 6 |
| 17 |  Union Berlin | 7 | -12 | 6 |
| 18 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 7 | -11 | 3 |
Next matches
SC Freiburg
- Sat 31 OctFC Augsburg – SC FreiburgBundesliga
- Thu 5 NovTrabzonspor – SC FreiburgUEFA Europa Conference League
- Sun 8 NovSC Freiburg – Union BerlinBundesliga
Bayern München
- Sat 31 OctBayern München – Borussia DortmundBundesliga
- Tue 3 NovAtletico Madrid – Bayern MünchenUEFA Champions League
- Sat 7 NovFSV Mainz 05 – Bayern MünchenBundesliga
Head-to-head: last 10 meetings
SC Freiburg 1 wins · 1 draws · Bayern München 8 wins
- 04/04/2026SC Freiburg2-3Bayern MünchenBundesliga
- 22/11/2025Bayern München6-2SC FreiburgBundesliga
- 25/01/2025SC Freiburg1-2Bayern MünchenBundesliga
- 01/09/2024Bayern München2-0SC FreiburgBundesliga
- 01/03/2024SC Freiburg2-2Bayern MünchenBundesliga
- 08/10/2023Bayern München3-0SC FreiburgBundesliga
- 08/04/2023SC Freiburg0-1Bayern MünchenBundesliga
- 04/04/2023Bayern München1-2SC FreiburgDFB Pokal
- 16/10/2022Bayern München5-0SC FreiburgBundesliga
- 02/04/2022SC Freiburg1-4Bayern MünchenBundesliga
Sunday’s trip to the Europa-Park Stadion is more than a regular-season fixture: two top-four sides meet with the summit of the Bundesliga at stake. Bayern München lead the table on 14 points from six games, while SC Freiburg sit third on 13, a single point behind. A home win would carry Freiburg above the champions on points, so the stakes are high for both sides.
Form that points in different directions
Freiburg have been formidable at home. They have won all three of their league games in the Europa-Park Stadion this season, scoring 11 times and conceding only twice. Their only defeat this season came on the road.
Bayern have been even more prolific. They have not lost in six league games, winning four and drawing two, and their last five matches have produced 17 goals and just four against. Their away record is less emphatic, with four goals scored in three trips, but they have found a way to win away from home.
Head-to-head
Bayern have dominated recent meetings. They have won four of the last five Bundesliga clashes, with the other ending 2-2 in March 2024. Their most recent visit to Freiburg ended 2-3 in April, and they beat Freiburg 6-2 in Munich last November. Freiburg have not beaten Bayern in that run.
Team news
Freiburg face fitness doubts over Y. Engelhardt, who is injured, and B. Yilmaz, who is short of match fitness.
Bayern are missing several key men. T. Buchmann (knee), L. Diaz (muscle) and J. Musiala (muscle) are all ruled out. Kim Min-jae (knee) and J. Kimmich (personal reasons) are both doubtful.
Our prediction
PreviaXI’s statistical model favours Bayern, and the football reasoning supports that lean. Bayern’s attack has been the most potent in the league, and their absences in defence and midfield are a concern, but they have the stronger creative threat and a habit of scoring in multiple phases. Freiburg’s home resilience should keep this tight and physical, and they will have chances, but Bayern’s quality in front of goal should decide it.
SC Freiburg 1-2 Bayern München
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