UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 4 
Paris Saint-Germain’s winning run faces a Villarreal test
Paris Saint-Germain arrive in Villarreal with three straight Champions League wins and top the league phase. Villarreal have taken three points from their opening three matches and will try to disrupt the visitors’ momentum.
📍 Estadio de la Cerámica
Preview written: · Team news checked:
All League phase, matchday 4 matches
Match facts
Recent form
Last 5 league games, latest on the right
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Villarreal | 2.7 | 2.7 |
| Paris Saint Germain | 4.7 | 1.7 |
PreviaXI model
Model confidence: Open game
- Predicted score
- 1-2
- Expected goals (model)
- 1.42 – 1.73
- Double chance
- 12 · 76%1X 55% · X2 69%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 61%Over 1.5: 83% · Over 3.5: 39%
- Both teams score
- 63%
- Clean sheet
- 18% – 24%Villarreal–Paris Saint Germain
- Half-time result
- X · 38%1 27% · 2 35%
- Half-time / full-time
- 2/2 · 27%1/1 18% · X/2 14%
- Expected corners
- 8.83.7 – 5.1 · Over 9.5: 39%
- Expected cards
- 3.11.7 – 1.4 · Over 3.5: 37%
- Most likely scores
- 1-111%
- 1-29%
- 2-17%
- 0-17%
- 2-26%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
Why the model leans towards Paris Saint Germain
- Power ratings: Villarreal +1.86 goals per game (29th of 430 in Europe), Paris Saint Germain +2.69 (6th).
- Villarreal's attack (2.66 goals per game) meets Paris Saint Germain's defence (0.69 conceded per game).
- Paris Saint Germain's attack (3.38) meets Villarreal's defence (0.80).
- Home advantage in this competition: home sides score about 21% more goals.
- Put together, the model expects 1.42 – 1.73 goals: Villarreal 31%, draw 24%, Paris Saint Germain 45%.
Key trends
- Paris Saint Germain have scored in each of their last 41 matches.
- Paris Saint Germain have won their last 9 matches.
- Paris Saint Germain are unbeaten in their last 7 away matches.
- 6 of Paris Saint Germain’s last 8 matches had over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 6 of Paris Saint Germain’s last 8 matches.
Absences
Villarreal
- OutI. Akhomach · Muscle Injury
- OutN. Saliba · Injury
- DoubtfulG. Moreno · Injury
Paris Saint Germain
- OutO. Dembele · Thigh Injury
- OutK. Kvaratskhelia · Knee Injury
- OutA. Longoni · Injury
- OutMarquinhos · Thigh Injury
- OutN. Mendes · Muscle Injury
Injury and suspension list from our data provider, updated every 6 hours. It can change before kick-off.
Chance to score
Villarreal
- G. Mikautadze5 goals in 14 games22%
- P. Gueye3 goals in 13 games16%
- N. Pépé2 goals in 8 games15%
Paris Saint Germain
- Ferran Torres7 goals in 12 games24%
- D. Doué4 goals in 12 games15%
- A. Hakimi3 goals in 13 games11%
Model estimate: each player’s season goals per minute compared with his team’s, applied to the model’s expected goals for this match and his usual minutes. Players listed as out are left out.
Season stats
| · | Villarreal | Paris Saint Germain | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | All | Home | All | Away |
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-5 | 1-1-3 | 6-2-1 | 4-2-0 |
| Goals scored per game | 1.36 | 1.20 | 2.33 | 2.50 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.36 | 1.40 | 1.11 | 1.17 |
| xG per game | 1.97 | 2.12 | 2.50 | 2.48 |
| xG against per game | 1.09 | 1.06 | 1.25 | 1.43 |
| Scored in | 64% | 60% | 100% | 100% |
| Clean sheets | 9% | 20% | 22% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 36% | 40% | 0% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 64% | 60% | 78% | 83% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 64% | 60% | 89% | 83% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 60% | 78% | 83% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45% | 40% | 56% | 67% |
| Shots per game | 16.4 | 17.2 | 19.8 | 19.3 |
| Shots on target per game | 5.7 | 6.0 | 7.9 | 7.2 |
| Shots on target | 35% | 35% | 40% | 37% |
| Possession | 61% | 61% | 68% | 68% |
| Passes per game | 570.0 | 594.4 | 721.9 | 713.0 |
| Pass accuracy | 89% | 89% | 90% | – |
| Corners per game | 7.3 | 7.6 | 5.6 | 5.5 |
| Corners against per game | 4.5 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 2.3 |
| Cards per game | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Fouls per game | 11.3 | 11.4 | 6.7 | 6.7 |
League matches this season (La Liga / Ligue 1). Per-game averages; % = share of matches.
When goals come
Villarreal
- 0-150 / 1
- 16-302 / 1
- 31-455 / 7
- 46-601 / 2
- 61-752 / 1
- 76-90+4 / 4
Usual formation: 4-4-2
Paris Saint Germain
- 0-151 / 1
- 16-303 / 3
- 31-451 / 1
- 46-601 / 2
- 61-758 / 2
- 76-90+7 / 1
Usual formation: 4-3-3
Goals scored (green) and conceded (orange) by 15-minute period, league matches this season.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain | 3 | +9 | 9 |
| 2 |  Aston Villa | 3 | +9 | 9 |
| 3 |  Liverpool | 3 | +5 | 9 |
| 4 |  Real Madrid | 3 | +5 | 9 |
| 5 |  Real Betis | 3 | +3 | 9 |
| 6 |  VfB Stuttgart | 3 | +5 | 7 |
| 7 |  Arsenal | 3 | +4 | 7 |
| 8 |  Barcelona | 3 | +5 | 6 |
| 9 |  Como | 3 | +5 | 6 |
| 10 |  Manchester City | 3 | +4 | 6 |
| 11 |  Club Brugge KV | 3 | +3 | 6 |
| 12 |  Sporting CP | 3 | +3 | 6 |
| 13 |  Borussia Dortmund | 3 | +1 | 6 |
| 14 |  Bayern München | 3 | +5 | 5 |
| 15 |  AS Roma | 3 | +3 | 4 |
| 16 |  Atletico Madrid | 3 | +1 | 4 |
| 17 |  Shakhtar Donetsk | 3 | +1 | 4 |
| 18 |  PSV Eindhoven | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 19 |  Villarreal | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 20 |  Inter | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 21 |  Manchester United | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 22 |  Napoli | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| 23 |  Galatasaray | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 24 |  Lask Linz | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 25 |  Sabah FA | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 26 |  Feyenoord | 3 | -4 | 3 |
| 27 |  Lens | 3 | -4 | 3 |
| 28 |  Bodo/Glimt | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 29 |  AEK Athens FC | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 30 |  RB Leipzig | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 31 |  Fenerbahçe | 3 | -6 | 2 |
| 32 |  Slavia Praha | 3 | -3 | 1 |
| 33 |  Viking | 3 | -4 | 1 |
| 34 |  FC Porto | 3 | -4 | 0 |
| 35 |  Lille | 3 | -6 | 0 |
| 36 |  Slovan Bratislava | 3 | -12 | 0 |
Table as of
Next matches
Villarreal
- Sun 8 NovVillarreal – GetafeLa Liga
- Sun 22 NovBarcelona – VillarrealLa Liga
- Wed 25 NovSlavia Praha – VillarrealUEFA Champions League
Paris Saint Germain
- Sat 7 NovParis Saint Germain – Estac TroyesLigue 1
- Sat 21 NovNice – Paris Saint GermainLigue 1
- Wed 25 NovParis Saint Germain – AS RomaUEFA Champions League
A test of PSG’s perfect start
The last meeting between Villarreal and Paris Saint-Germain is the one ahead of them: the clubs are set to meet in the Champions League league phase on Tuesday. PSG arrive with a perfect record after three matches, while Villarreal will look to make home advantage count at Estadio de la Cerámica.
The contrast is clear in the standings. PSG are first with nine points and a goal difference of plus nine; Villarreal sit 19th with three points and a goal difference of zero. With 36 teams in the league phase, another win would keep PSG’s strong start on track, while Villarreal need a result to climb the table.
PSG’s scoring surge
PSG have won all three of their Champions League matches, scoring 14 goals and conceding five. Their recent three-match sample also shows 14 goals scored and five conceded, underlining the attacking force behind their winning run.
Villarreal’s three-match sample is more uneven: eight goals scored and eight conceded. In the Champions League, they have won once and lost twice, with their three points leaving little margin for another setback. Their home victory in this competition offers encouragement, but PSG’s unbeaten start presents a major challenge.
No previous meeting to lean on
There is no recent head-to-head result to shape the preview, so the focus falls on current form. PSG’s three straight wins set the benchmark; Villarreal must find a way to contain an attack that has been producing goals at a remarkable rate.
Injuries thin both squads
Villarreal will be without I. Akhomach and N. Saliba, while G. Moreno is questionable. PSG are missing O. Dembele, K. Kvaratskhelia, A. Longoni, Marquinhos and N. Mendes. The visitors’ absences include several notable names, but their results so far show they have kept winning.
A chance for Villarreal to answer
Villarreal have scored eight times across their recent three matches, suggesting they can offer a threat of their own. PSG, however, have scored 14 in the same span and lead the league phase, making their attacking output the central concern for the home defence.
Our prediction
Villarreal’s home support could make this competitive, but PSG’s three wins from three and far greater scoring output point to the visitors having the edge. PreviaXI’s model also leans towards a PSG victory, with both sides capable of finding the net.
Villarreal 1-2 Paris Saint Germain
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