UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 4 
Lille under pressure after three straight defeats
Lille arrive at Bodo/Glimt with three losses from three in the Champions League league phase and a six-point deficit to their hosts. Bodo/Glimt’s home record in this competition offers a difficult test for a side seeking its first points.
📍 Aspmyra Stadion
Preview written: · Team news checked:
All League phase, matchday 4 matches
Match facts
Recent form
Last 5 league games, latest on the right
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Bodo/Glimt | 2.3 | 2.1 |
| Lille | 1.3 | 3.3 |
PreviaXI model
Model confidence: Medium
- Predicted score
- 2-1
- Expected goals (model)
- 1.79 – 1.14
- Double chance
- 1X · 76%12 76% · X2 48%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 56%Over 1.5: 79% · Over 3.5: 34%
- Both teams score
- 57%
- Clean sheet
- 32% – 17%Bodo/Glimt–Lille
- Half-time result
- 1 · 39%X 39% · 2 22%
- Half-time / full-time
- 1/1 · 33%X/1 17% · X/X 14%
- Expected corners
- 9.84.5 – 5.3 · Over 9.5: 51%
- Expected cards
- 4.01.5 – 2.5 · Over 3.5: 57%
- Most likely scores
- 1-111%
- 2-110%
- 1-09%
- 2-09%
- 1-26%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
Why the model leans towards Bodo/Glimt
- Power ratings: Bodo/Glimt +2.07 goals per game (18th of 430 in Europe), Lille +1.25 (91st).
- Bodo/Glimt's attack (2.94 goals per game) meets Lille's defence (0.79 conceded per game).
- Lille's attack (2.04) meets Bodo/Glimt's defence (0.87).
- Home advantage in this competition: home sides score about 21% more goals.
- Put together, the model expects 1.79 – 1.14 goals: Bodo/Glimt 52%, draw 24%, Lille 24%.
Absences
Bodo/Glimt
- OutH. Evjen · Knee Injury
- OutJ. Lund · Injury
- OutA. Mikkelsen · Groin Injury
- OutI. Sjong · Injury
Lille
- OutH. Igamane · Knee Injury
- OutE. Mbappe · Red Card
- OutT. Santos · Knee Injury
- OutA. Ueda · Foot Injury
Injury and suspension list from our data provider, updated every 6 hours. It can change before kick-off.
Chance to score
Bodo/Glimt
- A. Helmersen16 goals in 29 games32%
- K. Høgh7 goals in 12 games31%
- J. Hauge8 goals in 29 games18%
Lille
- O. Giroud3 goals in 11 games14%
- D. Bakwa2 goals in 10 games11%
- Alexsandro Ribeiro1 goals in 11 games6%
Model estimate: each player’s season goals per minute compared with his team’s, applied to the model’s expected goals for this match and his usual minutes. Players listed as out are left out.
Season stats
| · | All | Away |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-1 | 2-1-1 |
| Goals scored per game | 1.33 | 1.25 |
| Goals conceded per game | 0.67 | 0.75 |
| xG per game | 1.42 | 1.19 |
| xG against per game | 1.48 | 2.30 |
| Scored in | 100% | 100% |
| Clean sheets | 56% | 50% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 50% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67% | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 22% | 25% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 11% | 0% |
| Shots per game | 11.8 | 11.5 |
| Shots on target per game | 5.2 | 6.0 |
| Shots on target | 44% | 52% |
| Possession | 50% | 46% |
| Passes per game | 478.2 | 435.2 |
| Pass accuracy | 87% | – |
| Corners per game | 3.8 | 3.2 |
| Corners against per game | 4.7 | 5.8 |
| Cards per game | 1.6 | 2.0 |
| Fouls per game | 11.3 | 11.0 |
League matches this season (Ligue 1). Per-game averages; % = share of matches.
When goals come
Lille
- 0-152 / 1
- 16-304 / 0
- 31-451 / 0
- 46-600 / 0
- 61-752 / 2
- 76-90+4 / 2
Usual formation: 4-2-3-1
Goals scored (green) and conceded (orange) by 15-minute period, league matches this season.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain | 3 | +9 | 9 |
| 2 |  Aston Villa | 3 | +9 | 9 |
| 3 |  Liverpool | 3 | +5 | 9 |
| 4 |  Real Madrid | 3 | +5 | 9 |
| 5 |  Real Betis | 3 | +3 | 9 |
| 6 |  VfB Stuttgart | 3 | +5 | 7 |
| 7 |  Arsenal | 3 | +4 | 7 |
| 8 |  Barcelona | 3 | +5 | 6 |
| 9 |  Como | 3 | +5 | 6 |
| 10 |  Manchester City | 3 | +4 | 6 |
| 11 |  Club Brugge KV | 3 | +3 | 6 |
| 12 |  Sporting CP | 3 | +3 | 6 |
| 13 |  Borussia Dortmund | 3 | +1 | 6 |
| 14 |  Bayern München | 3 | +5 | 5 |
| 15 |  AS Roma | 3 | +3 | 4 |
| 16 |  Atletico Madrid | 3 | +1 | 4 |
| 17 |  Shakhtar Donetsk | 3 | +1 | 4 |
| 18 |  PSV Eindhoven | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 19 |  Villarreal | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 20 |  Inter | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 21 |  Manchester United | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 22 |  Napoli | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| 23 |  Galatasaray | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 24 |  Lask Linz | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 25 |  Sabah FA | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 26 |  Feyenoord | 3 | -4 | 3 |
| 27 |  Lens | 3 | -4 | 3 |
| 28 |  Bodo/Glimt | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 29 |  AEK Athens FC | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 30 |  RB Leipzig | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 31 |  Fenerbahçe | 3 | -6 | 2 |
| 32 |  Slavia Praha | 3 | -3 | 1 |
| 33 |  Viking | 3 | -4 | 1 |
| 34 |  FC Porto | 3 | -4 | 0 |
| 35 |  Lille | 3 | -6 | 0 |
| 36 |  Slovan Bratislava | 3 | -12 | 0 |
Table as of
Next matches
Bodo/Glimt
- Sun 8 NovTromso – Bodo/GlimtEliteserien
- Fri 20 NovMolde – Bodo/GlimtEliteserien
- Tue 24 NovBodo/Glimt – Lask LinzUEFA Champions League
Lille
- Sun 8 NovRennes – LilleLigue 1
- Sat 21 NovLille – LyonLigue 1
- Wed 25 NovLille – Bayern MünchenUEFA Champions League
Lille’s urgent need for a response
Lille’s Champions League campaign has started with three consecutive defeats, leaving them bottom of the 36-team league phase with no points. Their next test is away to Bodo/Glimt, who have three points from their opening three matches and sit 28th. With six points separating the sides, the pressure is firmly on Lille to halt their slide and get their campaign moving.
A worrying defensive trend
Lille have conceded 10 goals across their last three matches, an average of more than three per game, while scoring four. Their Champions League results have been defeats in all three outings.
Bodo/Glimt have scored 10 and conceded 10 across their last five matches, suggesting a more open run of games. In this competition, they have won three of their three home matches, scoring seven goals and conceding two. Lille, by contrast, have lost all three of their Champions League matches, including their only away fixture, in which they scored none and conceded three.
Team news and absences
Bodo/Glimt are without H. Evjen, J. Lund, A. Mikkelsen and I. Sjong. Lille are missing H. Igamane, E. Mbappe, T. Santos and A. Ueda. Evjen, Mikkelsen, Igamane, Santos and Ueda are out with injuries, while Mbappe is absent through suspension.
Bodo/Glimt have the home edge
Bodo/Glimt’s three home wins in this competition stand out against Lille’s three straight defeats. Lille have shown some attacking output across their last three matches, with four goals, but their defensive record makes it hard to trust them to control the game. Bodo/Glimt’s 10 goals in their last five also point to a side capable of making the most of that vulnerability.
Our prediction
Bodo/Glimt’s home strength in the Champions League and Lille’s run of defeats make the Norwegian side the more convincing pick. Lille may find a goal, but Bodo/Glimt look better placed to create the decisive chances and claim the points.
Bodo/Glimt 2-1 Lille
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