UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 4 
Barcelona seek to cut Aston Villa’s Champions League lead
Aston Villa arrive second in the league phase with a perfect record, three points ahead of eighth-placed Barcelona. A home win would bring the sides level on points and sharpen the race near the top.
📍 Spotify Camp Nou
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All League phase, matchday 4 matches
Match facts
Recent form
Last 5 league games, latest on the right
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Barcelona | 3.7 | 2.0 |
| Aston Villa | 4.0 | 1.0 |
PreviaXI model
Model confidence: Strong
- Predicted score
- 2-1
- Expected goals (model)
- 2.37 – 1.22
- Double chance
- 1X · 82%12 80% · X2 38%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 70%Over 1.5: 88% · Over 3.5: 48%
- Both teams score
- 64%
- Clean sheet
- 29% – 9%Barcelona–Aston Villa
- Half-time result
- 1 · 48%X 34% · 2 18%
- Half-time / full-time
- 1/1 · 41%X/1 17% · X/X 10%
- Expected corners
- 9.65.9 – 3.7 · Over 9.5: 48%
- Expected cards
- 3.81.8 – 2.0 · Over 3.5: 50%
- Most likely scores
- 2-19%
- 1-18%
- 2-08%
- 3-17%
- 1-06%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
Why the model leans towards Barcelona
- Power ratings: Barcelona +3.31 goals per game (2nd of 430 in Europe), Aston Villa +1.87 (28th).
- Barcelona's attack (4.04 goals per game) meets Aston Villa's defence (0.76 conceded per game).
- Aston Villa's attack (2.63) meets Barcelona's defence (0.73).
- Home advantage in this competition: home sides score about 21% more goals.
- Put together, the model expects 2.37 – 1.22 goals: Barcelona 62%, draw 20%, Aston Villa 18%.
Key trends
- Barcelona have scored in each of their last 16 matches.
- 8 of Barcelona’s last 8 matches had over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 7 of Barcelona’s last 8 matches.
- 6 of Aston Villa’s last 8 matches had over 2.5 goals.
Absences
Barcelona
- OutR. Bardghji · Knee Injury
- OutA. Christensen · Muscle Injury
- OutX. Espart · Ankle Injury
- OutD. Olmo · Groin Injury
- DoubtfulE. Garcia · Muscle Injury
- DoubtfulJ. Kounde · Ankle Injury
Aston Villa
- OutB. Madjo · Off the roster
- OutA. Onana · Knee Injury
- OutM. Ruggeri · Muscle Injury
- OutA. Wan-Bissaka · Muscle Injury
Injury and suspension list from our data provider, updated every 6 hours. It can change before kick-off.
Chance to score
Barcelona
- Raphinha19 goals in 13 games49%
- Lamine Yamal10 goals in 13 games31%
- Fermín5 goals in 12 games17%
Aston Villa
- N. Jackson7 goals in 11 games29%
- J. Manzambi3 goals in 7 games17%
- R. Barkley4 goals in 14 games13%
Model estimate: each player’s season goals per minute compared with his team’s, applied to the model’s expected goals for this match and his usual minutes. Players listed as out are left out.
Season stats
| · | Barcelona | Aston Villa | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | All | Home | All | Away |
| Won-drawn-lost | 10-0-1 | 5-0-1 | 3-3-3 | 2-1-1 |
| Goals scored per game | 4.18 | 4.00 | 1.11 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.09 | 1.17 | 1.44 | 1.50 |
| xG per game | 3.46 | 3.41 | 1.22 | 1.25 |
| xG against per game | 1.06 | 1.04 | 1.71 | 1.74 |
| Scored in | 100% | 100% | 67% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 36% | 33% | 22% | 50% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | 33% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 64% | 67% | 56% | 25% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 100% | 100% | 67% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 91% | 83% | 56% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 73% | 50% | 33% | 50% |
| Shots per game | 20.2 | 22.0 | 11.9 | 12.2 |
| Shots on target per game | 8.1 | 8.2 | 3.0 | 2.5 |
| Shots on target | 40% | 37% | 25% | 20% |
| Possession | 70% | 72% | 46% | 47% |
| Passes per game | 704.5 | 708.2 | 401.4 | 425.8 |
| Pass accuracy | 91% | 91% | 82% | – |
| Corners per game | 6.9 | 9.7 | 3.7 | 3.0 |
| Corners against per game | 2.8 | 3.5 | 4.9 | 5.8 |
| Cards per game | 1.5 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 2.0 |
| Fouls per game | 10.5 | 10.8 | 11.4 | 10.0 |
League matches this season (La Liga / Premier League). Per-game averages; % = share of matches.
When goals come
Barcelona
- 0-157 / 1
- 16-308 / 3
- 31-455 / 2
- 46-605 / 3
- 61-759 / 1
- 76-90+10 / 4
Usual formation: 4-3-3
Aston Villa
- 0-153 / 1
- 16-300 / 2
- 31-452 / 1
- 46-601 / 3
- 61-752 / 0
- 76-90+2 / 4
Usual formation: 4-2-3-1
Goals scored (green) and conceded (orange) by 15-minute period, league matches this season.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain | 3 | +9 | 9 |
| 2 |  Aston Villa | 3 | +9 | 9 |
| 3 |  Liverpool | 3 | +5 | 9 |
| 4 |  Real Madrid | 3 | +5 | 9 |
| 5 |  Real Betis | 3 | +3 | 9 |
| 6 |  VfB Stuttgart | 3 | +5 | 7 |
| 7 |  Arsenal | 3 | +4 | 7 |
| 8 |  Barcelona | 3 | +5 | 6 |
| 9 |  Como | 3 | +5 | 6 |
| 10 |  Manchester City | 3 | +4 | 6 |
| 11 |  Club Brugge KV | 3 | +3 | 6 |
| 12 |  Sporting CP | 3 | +3 | 6 |
| 13 |  Borussia Dortmund | 3 | +1 | 6 |
| 14 |  Bayern München | 3 | +5 | 5 |
| 15 |  AS Roma | 3 | +3 | 4 |
| 16 |  Atletico Madrid | 3 | +1 | 4 |
| 17 |  Shakhtar Donetsk | 3 | +1 | 4 |
| 18 |  PSV Eindhoven | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 19 |  Villarreal | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 20 |  Inter | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 21 |  Manchester United | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 22 |  Napoli | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| 23 |  Galatasaray | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 24 |  Lask Linz | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 25 |  Sabah FA | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 26 |  Feyenoord | 3 | -4 | 3 |
| 27 |  Lens | 3 | -4 | 3 |
| 28 |  Bodo/Glimt | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 29 |  AEK Athens FC | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 30 |  RB Leipzig | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 31 |  Fenerbahçe | 3 | -6 | 2 |
| 32 |  Slavia Praha | 3 | -3 | 1 |
| 33 |  Viking | 3 | -4 | 1 |
| 34 |  FC Porto | 3 | -4 | 0 |
| 35 |  Lille | 3 | -6 | 0 |
| 36 |  Slovan Bratislava | 3 | -12 | 0 |
Table as of
Next matches
Barcelona
- Sun 8 NovAtletico Madrid – BarcelonaLa Liga
- Sun 22 NovBarcelona – VillarrealLa Liga
- Wed 25 NovSabah FA – BarcelonaUEFA Champions League
Aston Villa
- Sun 8 NovManchester United – Aston VillaPremier League
- Sat 21 NovAston Villa – SunderlandPremier League
- Tue 24 NovGalatasaray – Aston VillaUEFA Champions League
A three-point gap in the top eight
Aston Villa travel to Barcelona sitting second in the Champions League league phase, with nine points from three matches and a goal difference of +9. Barcelona are eighth on six points, with a +5 goal difference. With both clubs among the leading sides, the result at Spotify Camp Nou carries direct weight in the qualification race: a Barcelona victory would draw them level with Villa on points, while the visitors can preserve their three-point advantage with another win.
Villa perfect, Barcelona recovering
Villa have won all three of their Champions League matches, scoring 12 goals and conceding three. Barcelona have taken two wins and one defeat, scoring 11 and conceding six. Those figures point to two dangerous attacks, but Villa’s tighter defensive record gives them an edge in the early league-phase standings.
Barcelona’s three-match run in this competition includes one home match and two away fixtures; they have won twice overall. Villa have also won all three of their matches in the competition, including their sole away fixture.
No recent meeting to draw on
There is no recent head-to-head record to shape the build-up, leaving the current league-phase table and form as the clearest guide to the stakes.
Barcelona’s injury concerns
Barcelona will be without R. Bardghji, A. Christensen, X. Espart and D. Olmo, while E. Garcia and J. Kounde are questionable. Aston Villa are missing B. Madjo, A. Onana, M. Ruggeri and A. Wan-Bissaka.
Two prolific attacks
Villa’s 12 goals in three Champions League matches make them the more prolific side so far, while Barcelona have scored 11. Both teams have also conceded, setting up a contest in which the home side will need to balance attacking intent with the defensive discipline Villa have shown.
Our prediction
Barcelona’s home advantage and attacking output give them a route to a result, even against a Villa side that has started the league phase with three straight wins. PreviaXI’s model leans towards the hosts, with Barcelona projected to create more of the decisive chances, though Villa’s scoring form suggests they can get on the scoresheet.
Barcelona 2-1 Aston Villa
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