UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 4 
Atletico Madrid and Bayern München seek an edge in a tight Champions League race
Atletico Madrid have scored four goals across their three latest matches, while Bayern München have struck ten. With only one point separating them in the League Phase, the meeting offers both sides a chance to gain ground.
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All League phase, matchday 4 matchesFull head-to-head
Match facts
Recent form
Last 5 league games, latest on the right
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| Bayern München | 3.3 | 1.7 |
PreviaXI model
Model confidence: Medium
- Predicted score
- 1-2
- Expected goals (model)
- 1.49 – 2.27
- Double chance
- 12 · 79%1X 45% · X2 76%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 72%Over 1.5: 89% · Over 3.5: 52%
- Both teams score
- 70%
- Clean sheet
- 10% – 23%Atletico Madrid–Bayern München
- Half-time result
- 2 · 43%1 23% · X 34%
- Half-time / full-time
- 2/2 · 36%X/2 15% · 1/1 14%
- Expected corners
- 10.05.0 – 5.0 · Over 9.5: 54%
- Expected cards
- 3.51.8 – 1.7 · Over 3.5: 47%
- Most likely scores
- 1-29%
- 1-18%
- 1-37%
- 2-27%
- 0-26%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
Why the model leans towards Bayern München
- Power ratings: Atletico Madrid +2.06 goals per game (20th of 430 in Europe), Bayern München +4.07 (1st).
- Atletico Madrid's attack (2.81 goals per game) meets Bayern München's defence (0.68 conceded per game).
- Bayern München's attack (4.75) meets Atletico Madrid's defence (0.75).
- Home advantage in this competition: home sides score about 21% more goals.
- Put together, the model expects 1.49 – 2.27 goals: Atletico Madrid 24%, draw 21%, Bayern München 55%.
Key trends
- Bayern München are unbeaten in their last 18 matches.
- Atletico Madrid are unbeaten in their last 9 matches.
- Atletico Madrid have scored in each of their last 10 matches.
- Bayern München have scored in each of their last 10 matches.
- 8 of Bayern München’s last 8 matches had over 2.5 goals.
- Atletico Madrid are unbeaten in their last 7 home matches.
Absences
Atletico Madrid
- OutJ. Cardoso · Thigh Injury
- OutM. Hjulmand · Red Card
- OutKoke · Muscle Injury
Bayern München
- OutT. Buchmann · Knee Injury
- OutL. Diaz · Muscle Injury
- OutJ. Musiala · Muscle Injury
- OutM. Neuer · Foot Injury
- DoubtfulS. Gnabry · Injury
- DoubtfulM. Olise · Injury
- DoubtfulI. Saibari · Injury
Injury and suspension list from our data provider, updated every 6 hours. It can change before kick-off.
Chance to score
Atletico Madrid
- Álex Baena5 goals in 13 games20%
- J. David3 goals in 8 games16%
- Álex Grimaldo3 goals in 12 games14%
Bayern München
- M. Olise12 goals in 12 games39%
- H. Kane10 goals in 12 games34%
- A. Davies3 goals in 12 games11%
Model estimate: each player’s season goals per minute compared with his team’s, applied to the model’s expected goals for this match and his usual minutes. Players listed as out are left out.
Season stats
| · | Atletico Madrid | Bayern München | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | All | Home | All | Away |
| Won-drawn-lost | 9-1-1 | 4-1-0 | 5-3-0 | 2-2-0 |
| Goals scored per game | 2.00 | 2.20 | 3.38 | 1.75 |
| Goals conceded per game | 0.73 | 0.60 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| xG per game | 1.60 | 1.90 | 3.52 | 3.19 |
| xG against per game | 1.12 | 1.31 | 0.89 | 1.12 |
| Scored in | 91% | 100% | 88% | 75% |
| Clean sheets | 55% | 60% | 25% | 25% |
| Failed to score | 9% | 0% | 12% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 36% | 40% | 75% | 75% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | 80% | 88% | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 60% | 88% | 75% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | 40% | 75% | 50% |
| Shots per game | 17.4 | 19.8 | 23.2 | 22.5 |
| Shots on target per game | 6.1 | 6.8 | 9.5 | 7.5 |
| Shots on target | 35% | 34% | 41% | 33% |
| Possession | 59% | 58% | 66% | 70% |
| Passes per game | 584.0 | 572.0 | 670.6 | 726.5 |
| Pass accuracy | 88% | 89% | 89% | 91% |
| Corners per game | 5.7 | 5.0 | 8.6 | 8.8 |
| Corners against per game | 3.1 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 3.2 |
| Cards per game | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| Fouls per game | 11.5 | 13.2 | 10.6 | 9.2 |
League matches this season (La Liga / Bundesliga). Per-game averages; % = share of matches.
When goals come
Atletico Madrid
- 0-151 / 0
- 16-302 / 0
- 31-453 / 1
- 46-605 / 2
- 61-753 / 2
- 76-90+8 / 3
Usual formation: 4-4-2
Bayern München
- 0-151 / 1
- 16-305 / 0
- 31-454 / 0
- 46-605 / 2
- 61-754 / 2
- 76-90+6 / 1
Usual formation: 4-2-3-1
Goals scored (green) and conceded (orange) by 15-minute period, league matches this season.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain | 3 | +9 | 9 |
| 2 |  Aston Villa | 3 | +9 | 9 |
| 3 |  Liverpool | 3 | +5 | 9 |
| 4 |  Real Madrid | 3 | +5 | 9 |
| 5 |  Real Betis | 3 | +3 | 9 |
| 6 |  VfB Stuttgart | 3 | +5 | 7 |
| 7 |  Arsenal | 3 | +4 | 7 |
| 8 |  Barcelona | 3 | +5 | 6 |
| 9 |  Como | 3 | +5 | 6 |
| 10 |  Manchester City | 3 | +4 | 6 |
| 11 |  Club Brugge KV | 3 | +3 | 6 |
| 12 |  Sporting CP | 3 | +3 | 6 |
| 13 |  Borussia Dortmund | 3 | +1 | 6 |
| 14 |  Bayern München | 3 | +5 | 5 |
| 15 |  AS Roma | 3 | +3 | 4 |
| 16 |  Atletico Madrid | 3 | +1 | 4 |
| 17 |  Shakhtar Donetsk | 3 | +1 | 4 |
| 18 |  PSV Eindhoven | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 19 |  Villarreal | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 20 |  Inter | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 21 |  Manchester United | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 22 |  Napoli | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| 23 |  Galatasaray | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 24 |  Lask Linz | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 25 |  Sabah FA | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 26 |  Feyenoord | 3 | -4 | 3 |
| 27 |  Lens | 3 | -4 | 3 |
| 28 |  Bodo/Glimt | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 29 |  AEK Athens FC | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 30 |  RB Leipzig | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 31 |  Fenerbahçe | 3 | -6 | 2 |
| 32 |  Slavia Praha | 3 | -3 | 1 |
| 33 |  Viking | 3 | -4 | 1 |
| 34 |  FC Porto | 3 | -4 | 0 |
| 35 |  Lille | 3 | -6 | 0 |
| 36 |  Slovan Bratislava | 3 | -12 | 0 |
Table as of
Next matches
Atletico Madrid
- Sun 8 NovAtletico Madrid – BarcelonaLa Liga
- Sun 22 NovGetafe – Atletico MadridLa Liga
- Wed 25 NovAtletico Madrid – VikingUEFA Champions League
Bayern München
- Sat 7 NovFSV Mainz 05 – Bayern MünchenBundesliga
- Fri 20 NovBayern München – 1. FC KölnBundesliga
- Wed 25 NovLille – Bayern MünchenUEFA Champions League
Head-to-head: last 6 meetings
Atletico Madrid 2 wins · 1 draws · Bayern München 3 wins
- 01/12/2020Atletico Madrid1-1Bayern MünchenUEFA Champions League
- 21/10/2020Bayern München4-0Atletico MadridUEFA Champions League
- 06/12/2016Bayern München1-0Atletico MadridUEFA Champions League
- 28/09/2016Atletico Madrid1-0Bayern MünchenUEFA Champions League
- 03/05/2016Bayern München2-1Atletico MadridUEFA Champions League
- 27/04/2016Atletico Madrid1-0Bayern MünchenUEFA Champions League
One point separates them
Atletico Madrid’s recent run has brought four goals in three matches, and they now face a Bayern München side who have scored ten over the same number of games. The gap between the teams is just one point in the UEFA Champions League League Phase: Bayern are 14th on five points after three games, with Atletico 16th on four. In a 36-team table, a result in Madrid could give either side a valuable push up the standings.
Bayern bring the sharper attack
Atletico have scored four and conceded three across their last three matches. Bayern’s ten goals in that span underline their attacking threat, though they have also let in five. Their Champions League results offer a similar contrast: Atletico have one win, one draw and one defeat from three games, while Bayern have won once and drawn twice.
Atletico’s home results in this competition provide a reason for confidence: they won their one home match and kept a clean sheet. Bayern have yet to win away in the competition, drawing their only away game, but have scored three times on the road.
A mixed record between the sides
The most recent meeting ended 1-1 in December 2020. Bayern had won 4-0 earlier that season, and lead the five-match head-to-head record with three wins to Atletico’s one, alongside one draw.
Absences could shape the contest
Atletico are without J. Cardoso and Koke through injury, while M. Hjulmand is suspended. Bayern will miss T. Buchmann, L. Diaz, J. Musiala and M. Neuer through injury. S. Gnabry, M. Olise and I. Saibari are listed as questionable, leaving their availability uncertain.
Bayern’s scoring edge
Bayern’s ten goals across their three latest matches make their forward threat hard to overlook, even with several players unavailable or doubtful. Atletico’s home clean sheet in this competition offers a counterpoint, but Bayern’s stronger scoring return gives them the more convincing attacking case.
Our prediction
Bayern’s greater recent goal output points to the visitors having enough firepower to edge a close match, although Atletico’s home record in this competition suggests they can make it difficult. PreviaXI’s model favours Bayern, with both sides likely to find a way through.
Atletico Madrid 1-2 Bayern München
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