Jupiler Pro League · Matchday 9 Union Saint-Gilloise Aim to Pile Pressure on Cercle Brugge's Relegation Fight
Union Saint-Gilloise arrive on a four-match winning run, while Cercle Brugge are rooted to the bottom of the Pro League and desperate for a result that starts their climb out of trouble.
📍 Stade Joseph Marien
All Matchday 9 matchesFull head-to-head
Match facts
Recent form
Last 5 league games, latest on the right
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Union St. Gilloise | 2.8 | 0.5 |
| Cercle Brugge | 1.1 | 2.0 |
PreviaXI model
- Predicted score
- 2-0
- Expected goals (model)
- 2.11 – 0.90
- Double chance
- 1X · 85%12 80% · X2 35%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 58%Over 1.5: 81% · Over 3.5: 35%
- Both teams score
- 52%
- Clean sheet
- 41% – 12%Union St. Gilloise–Cercle Brugge
- Half-time result
- 1 · 48%X 37% · 2 15%
- Half-time / full-time
- 1/1 · 43%X/1 19% · X/X 12%
- Expected corners
- 10.26.4 – 3.8 · Over 9.5: 57%
- Expected cards
- 4.11.8 – 2.3 · Over 3.5: 56%
- Most likely scores
- 2-011%
- 1-010%
- 2-110%
- 1-110%
- 3-08%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
Why the model leans towards Union St. Gilloise
- Power ratings: Union St. Gilloise +0.93 goals per game (2nd of 18 in Jupiler Pro League), Cercle Brugge +0.08 (8th).
- Union St. Gilloise's attack (1.80 goals per game) meets Cercle Brugge's defence (1.55 conceded per game).
- Cercle Brugge's attack (1.63) meets Union St. Gilloise's defence (0.87).
- Home advantage in this competition: home sides score about 20% more goals.
- Put together, the model expects 2.11 – 0.90 goals: Union St. Gilloise 65%, draw 20%, Cercle Brugge 15%.
Chance to score
Union St. Gilloise
- R. Florucz5 goals in 11 games20%
- Guilherme Henriques da Silva Carvalho4 goals in 13 games19%
- R. Mofokeng4 goals in 11 games19%
Cercle Brugge
- S. Ngoura2 goals in 8 games14%
- D. Vanzeir1 goals in 7 games8%
- L. Mondele1 goals in 8 games7%
Model estimate: each player’s season goals per minute compared with his team’s, applied to the model’s expected goals for this match and his usual minutes. Players listed as out are left out.
Trends
- Union St. Gilloise are unbeaten in their last 20 home matches.
- Union St. Gilloise are unbeaten in their last 15 matches.
- Cercle Brugge have not won in their last 10 matches.
- Union St. Gilloise have scored in each of their last 9 matches.
- Cercle Brugge have not won in their last 5 away matches.
Season stats
| · | Union St. Gilloise | Cercle Brugge | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | All | Home | All | Away |
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-0 | 2-2-0 | 0-3-5 | 0-2-2 |
| Goals scored per game | 2.75 | 2.25 | 1.12 | 1.25 |
| Goals conceded per game | 0.50 | 0.25 | 2.00 | 1.75 |
| xG per game | 1.99 | 1.76 | 1.59 | 1.54 |
| xG against per game | 1.06 | 1.08 | 1.63 | 1.83 |
| Scored in | 88% | 75% | 62% | 75% |
| Clean sheets | 62% | 75% | 0% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 12% | 25% | 38% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 25% | 62% | 75% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 88% | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 50% | 62% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | 25% | 38% | 50% |
| Shots per game | 17.4 | 17.5 | 14.4 | 12.0 |
| Shots on target per game | 7.2 | 6.0 | 4.2 | 3.8 |
| Shots on target | 41% | 34% | 29% | 32% |
| Possession | 52% | 57% | 44% | 39% |
| Passes per game | 467.6 | 500.5 | 377.9 | 326.8 |
| Pass accuracy | 82% | 83% | 77% | 74% |
| Corners per game | 5.9 | 7.0 | 7.5 | 7.0 |
| Corners against per game | 3.4 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 5.2 |
| Cards per game | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| Fouls per game | 11.6 | 11.2 | 12.6 | 14.8 |
League matches this season (Jupiler Pro League). Per-game averages; % = share of matches.
When goals come
Union St. Gilloise
- 0-152 / 2
- 16-302 / 2
- 31-453 / 1
- 46-604 / 0
- 61-753 / 1
- 76-90+6 / 0
Usual formation: 3-4-1-2
Cercle Brugge
- 0-151 / 2
- 16-303 / 2
- 31-451 / 3
- 46-600 / 2
- 61-751 / 2
- 76-90+3 / 5
Usual formation: 3-4-2-1
Goals scored (green) and conceded (orange) by 15-minute period, league matches this season.
Jupiler Pro League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Gent | 8 | +11 | 22 |
| 2 |  Club Brugge KV | 8 | +15 | 21 |
| 3 |  Charleroi | 9 | +6 | 21 |
| 4 |  Union St. Gilloise | 8 | +18 | 20 |
| 5 |  Anderlecht | 8 | +3 | 16 |
| 6 |  KVC Westerlo | 9 | +3 | 14 |
| 7 |  Genk | 8 | +4 | 12 |
| 8 |  Lommel United | 9 | 0 | 12 |
| 9 |  Standard Liege | 8 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 |  Zulte Waregem | 9 | -2 | 11 |
| 11 |  Antwerp | 9 | -5 | 10 |
| 12 |  SK Beveren | 9 | -6 | 10 |
| 13 |  St. Truiden | 8 | -1 | 8 |
| 14 |  RAAL La Louvière | 9 | -7 | 7 |
| 15 |  KV Mechelen | 8 | -8 | 6 |
| 16 |  OH Leuven | 9 | -8 | 6 |
| 17 |  Kortrijk | 8 | -16 | 3 |
| 18 |  Cercle Brugge | 8 | -7 | 3 |
Next matches
Union St. Gilloise
- Sat 31 OctSK Beveren – Union St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League
- Thu 5 NovCelta Vigo – Union St. GilloiseUEFA Europa League
- Sun 8 NovUnion St. Gilloise – GenkJupiler Pro League
Cercle Brugge
- Sun 1 NovCercle Brugge – AntwerpJupiler Pro League
- Sat 7 NovRAAL La Louvière – Cercle BruggeJupiler Pro League
- Fri 20 NovCercle Brugge – KVC WesterloJupiler Pro League
Head-to-head: last 10 meetings
Union St. Gilloise 5 wins · 3 draws · Cercle Brugge 2 wins
- 26/12/2025Cercle Brugge1-1Union St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League
- 22/11/2025Union St. Gilloise2-0Cercle BruggeJupiler Pro League
- 08/12/2024Cercle Brugge0-0Union St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League
- 27/10/2024Union St. Gilloise1-3Cercle BruggeJupiler Pro League
- 19/05/2024Cercle Brugge1-2Union St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League
- 07/04/2024Union St. Gilloise2-3Cercle BruggeJupiler Pro League
- 03/12/2023Union St. Gilloise2-1Cercle BruggeJupiler Pro League
- 24/09/2023Cercle Brugge0-2Union St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League
- 18/01/2023Cercle Brugge1-1Union St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League
- 09/10/2022Union St. Gilloise2-1Cercle BruggeJupiler Pro League
Union Saint-Gilloise have won four matches in a row and scored 14 goals in their last five league games, so the question for Sunday is how far they can stretch a lead that already looks comfortable.
Cercle’s fight to climb out
Cercle Brugge are at the other end of the picture. They sit 18th in the 18-team Pro League with three points from eight matches and a goal difference of -7, and they have lost four of their last five. Every point counts for a side this deep in the table, and a trip to Stade Joseph Marien in Brussels is a tough test of how far they have to go.
Union’s momentum
Union have been one of the league’s most consistent sides this season. They have six wins and two draws from eight games and have not lost yet, with 20 points and a goal difference of +18 in fourth place. Their attack has been productive wherever they play: nine goals at home and 13 on the road. They also have a habit of finishing games strongly, with 30% of their goals this season coming between the 76th and 90th minutes.
Cercle’s away record tells a harder story. They have collected only three draws in eight matches on the road this season, with five defeats, and they have conceded 16 goals in that time. In their last five games overall they have scored four and conceded ten.
Recent meetings
The rivalry has been close. Union have won two of the last five meetings and Cercle one, with two draws. The most recent clash ended 1-1 in Bruges in December, after Union had won 2-0 at home in November. Cercle did beat Union 3-1 in Brussels in October 2024, so this is a fixture where the visitors have shown they can win.
Our prediction
PreviaXI’s model favours Union, and the football reasons are clear: they create far more chances, they are strong at home, and Cercle have struggled to keep clean sheets or score away from home. Cercle will need to be compact and disciplined to stay in this game, but Union’s form and attacking depth should be enough to win comfortably.
Union Saint-Gilloise 2-0 Cercle Brugge
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