Major League Soccer · Matchday 33 
Our pick1–0Correct result
Portland Timbers vs Houston Dynamo: Can Portland turn the rivalry around?
Houston have won three of the last five meetings, including both encounters in 2025. Portland’s home record offers a counterweight as the sides meet again in the Western Conference.
📍 Providence Park
Preview written:
All Matchday 33 matchesFull head-to-head
Match report
Portland Timbers beat Houston Dynamo 3-1. David Da Costa opened the scoring in the 25th minute, assisted by Vincent Janssen. Portland doubled the lead in the 65th minute through Kristoffer Velde, again with Janssen providing the assist. Houston pulled one back six minutes later, with Agustín Bouzat scoring from Duncan McGuire’s assist. Janssen then restored Portland’s two-goal advantage in the 78th minute, assisted by Da Costa. There were no red cards.
Portland had 16 shots to Houston’s eight and led shots on target 6-1. The xG figures were 3.35 for Portland and 0.55 for Houston, while both sides recorded six corners. V. Janssen was the top-rated player, with a 9.2 rating. The 3-1 result was more decisive than the pre-match model’s 1-0 prediction, which gave Portland a 44% chance of winning, a draw 27% and Houston a 29% chance.
Goals
- 25'David Da Costa · Vincent Janssen · Portland Timbers
- 65'Kristoffer Velde · Vincent Janssen · Portland Timbers
- 71'Agustín Bouzat · Duncan McGuire · Houston Dynamo
- 78'Vincent Janssen · David Da Costa · Portland Timbers
Cards
- 18'Ian Smith · Portland Timbers
- 40'Diadie Samassekou · Houston Dynamo
- 61'Agustin Resch · Houston Dynamo
- 90+3'Diego Chará · Portland Timbers
Match stats
⭐ Top-rated player: V. Janssen (Portland Timbers) 9.2
Ratings and statistics: API-Football.
Confirmed lineups
Portland Timbers · 4-3-3
- 41J. PantemisG
- 12R. HernándezD
- 20F. SurmanD
- 2J. WatermanD
- 23Ian SmithD
- 73Eric IzoitaM
- 30J. CaicedoM
- 10David Pereira da CostaM
- 7A. LassiterF
- 14V. JanssenF
- 99K. VeldeF
Coach: Martí Cifuentes
Houston Dynamo · 5-3-2
- 31J. BondG
- 11L. EnnaliD
- 21F. NegriD
- 34A. ReschD
- 5Lucas HalterD
- 24A. IbrahimD
- 18D. SamassékouM
- 6ArturM
- 30A. BouzatM
- 9L. FosterF
- 19M. BoguszF
Coach: Ben Olsen
Match facts
Recent form
Last 5 league games, latest on the right
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Portland Timbers | 1.8 | 1.9 |
| Houston Dynamo | 1.3 | 1.2 |
League position
| Pos | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Houston Dynamo | 32 | +3 | 51 |
| 11 | Portland Timbers | 32 | -3 | 40 |
Last meetings
- 2026Houston Dynamo3-2Portland Timbers
- 2025Houston Dynamo1-0Portland Timbers
- 2025Portland Timbers3-1Houston Dynamo
- 2024Portland Timbers2-2Houston Dynamo
- 2024Houston Dynamo1-0Portland Timbers
Absences
Portland Timbers
- OutA. Bonetig · Shoulder Injury
- OutB. Bye · Leg Injury
- OutZ. McGraw · Back Injury
- OutK. Miller · Red Card
- OutJ. Mosquera · Foot Injury
- OutT. Muse · Concussion
- DoubtfulAntony · Knee Injury
Houston Dynamo
- OutJ. Maurer · Back Injury
- OutM. Saracchi · Lower-Body Injury
- DoubtfulFelipe Andrade · Hamstring Injury
- DoubtfulGuilherme · Lower-Body Injury
- DoubtfulH. Herrera · Lower-Body Injury
PreviaXI model
Model confidence: Open game
- Predicted score
- 1-0
- Expected goals (model)
- 1.48 – 1.15
- Double chance
- 12 · 73%1X 71% · X2 56%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 49%Over 1.5: 74% · Over 3.5: 27%
- Both teams score
- 53%
- Clean sheet
- 32% – 23%Portland Timbers–Houston Dynamo
- Half-time result
- X · 42%1 34% · 2 24%
- Half-time / full-time
- 1/1 · 27%X/X 16% · 2/2 16%
- Expected corners
- 9.85.6 – 4.2 · Over 9.5: 51%
- Expected cards
- 4.62.1 – 2.5 · Over 3.5: 67%
- Most likely scores
- 1-113%
- 1-010%
- 2-19%
- 2-08%
- 0-18%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
Recent meetings set the tone
Houston Dynamo have won three of the last five meetings with Portland Timbers, and the two most recent encounters have gone their way. That run gives Houston a clear recent edge, though the latest clash was close: Houston beat Portland 3-2 in March.
Conference stakes
Both sides have played 32 matches in the Western Conference. Houston sit fourth with 51 points, while Portland are 11th on 40, leaving an 11-point gap between them. Portland will be looking to make home advantage count as they try to close the distance; Houston arrive with a stronger position in the standings.
Contrasting recent form
Portland have scored nine and conceded nine across their last five matches. Their season-long home record is more encouraging: eight wins and four draws from 16 games at Providence Park, with 34 goals scored.
Houston’s last five have produced eight goals for and seven against. Across 32 league matches, they have won 14 and drawn nine, and their 13 clean sheets underline a defensive record stronger than Portland’s two.
A rivalry with narrow margins
The head-to-head sequence features two Houston 1-0 wins, a 2-2 draw and two matches with four or more goals. Portland’s only win in the five meetings came at home, 3-1 in March 2025. The pattern is mixed, but Houston have avoided defeat in the last two clashes and taken all three points in both.
Absences at Providence Park
Portland are without A. Bonetig, B. Bye, Z. McGraw, K. Miller, J. Mosquera and T. Muse. Antony is questionable with a knee injury. Houston will be without J. Maurer and M. Saracchi, while Felipe Andrade, Guilherme and H. Herrera are questionable.
Portland’s home threat
Portland have scored 34 goals in 16 home league matches, compared with 23 in 16 away games. Their recent record at home offers a route to challenge Houston’s stronger overall numbers, while the visitors’ 25 goals conceded on the road leave room for Portland to find openings.
Our prediction
Houston’s recent head-to-head advantage and stronger conference position make them a difficult opponent, but Portland’s home scoring record shifts the balance slightly. PreviaXI’s model also leans toward the hosts, with a narrow result the likeliest outcome.
Portland Timbers 1-0 Houston Dynamo
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