Major League Soccer · Matchday 33 
Our pick2–1Correct result
Can New York Red Bulls upset dominant Nashville SC?
Eastern Conference leaders Nashville SC have built an imposing home record, but New York Red Bulls arrive with a recent head-to-head win. Can the underdogs find a way to trouble the favourites?
📍 Geodis Park
Preview written:
All Matchday 33 matchesFull head-to-head
Match report
Nashville SC came from two goals down to beat New York Red Bulls 3-2. Julian Hall opened the scoring in the 34th minute, assisted by Adri Mehmeti, and Rafael Mosquera made it 2-0 six minutes later, with Cade Cowell providing the assist. Tim Parker’s own goal in the 45th minute brought Nashville SC back into the match. Julian Bazan’s own goal levelled the score in the 78th minute, before Sam Surridge, assisted by Cristian Espinoza, scored in the 90+1st minute to complete the turnaround.
Nashville SC had 61% possession and led the shot count 21-14, while the sides recorded almost identical expected goals: 2.92 to 2.93. J. Hall of New York Red Bulls was the top-rated player, with a 7.8 rating. The result differed from the pre-match model’s 2-1 prediction for Nashville SC, which gave the home side a 62% win probability, a 21% draw probability and New York Red Bulls a 17% win probability.
Goals
- 34'Julian Hall · Adri Mehmeti · New York Red Bulls
- 40'Rafael Mosquera · Cade Cowell · New York Red Bulls
- 45'Tim Parker (o.g.) · Nashville SC
- 78'Julian Bazan (o.g.) · Nashville SC
- 90+1'Sam Surridge · Cristian Espinoza · Nashville SC
Cards
- 25'Sekou Kone · New York Red Bulls
- 45+2'Jorge Ruvalcaba · New York Red Bulls
Match stats
⭐ Top-rated player: J. Hall (New York Red Bulls) 7.8
Ratings and statistics: API-Football.
Confirmed lineups
Nashville SC · 4-3-3
- 99B. SchwakeG
- 31A. NajarD
- 4J. PalaciosD
- 3M. WoledziD
- 27R. Baker-WhitingD
- 8P. YazbekM
- 16M. CorcoranM
- 11E. SaadM
- 7C. EspinozaF
- 10H. MukhtarF
- 9S. SurridgeF
Coach: B. Callaghan
New York Red Bulls · 4-3-3
- 34E. HorvathG
- 3J. Marshall-RuttyD
- 26T. ParkerD
- 14J. BazánD
- 59D. PadelfordD
- 15A. MehmetiM
- 60S. KoneM
- 11J. RuvalcabaM
- 7C. CowellF
- 16J. HallF
- 17C. HarperF
Coach: Michael Bradley
Match facts
Recent form
Last 5 league games, latest on the right
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Nashville SC | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| New York Red Bulls | 1.3 | 1.8 |
League position
| Pos | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nashville SC | 32 | +43 | 71 |
| 10 | New York Red Bulls | 32 | -16 | 39 |
Last meetings
- 2026New York Red Bulls0-1Nashville SC
- 2025Nashville SC2-1New York Red Bulls
- 2025New York Red Bulls2-0Nashville SC
- 2024New York Red Bulls0-0Nashville SC
- 2024Nashville SC0-0New York Red Bulls
Absences
Nashville SC
- OutO. Presthus · Lower-Body Injury
- DoubtfulF. Camara · Lower-Body Injury
New York Red Bulls
- OutJ. Che · Knee Injury
- OutR. Donkor · Yellow Cards
- OutD. Nealis · Yellow Cards
PreviaXI model
Model confidence: Strong
- Predicted score
- 2-1
- Expected goals (model)
- 2.11 – 1.03
- Double chance
- 1X · 83%12 79% · X2 38%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 61%Over 1.5: 82% · Over 3.5: 38%
- Both teams score
- 57%
- Clean sheet
- 36% – 12%Nashville SC–New York Red Bulls
- Half-time result
- 1 · 46%X 36% · 2 18%
- Half-time / full-time
- 1/1 · 40%X/1 18% · X/X 12%
- Expected corners
- 9.15.4 – 3.7 · Over 9.5: 43%
- Expected cards
- 3.61.6 – 2.0 · Over 3.5: 50%
- Most likely scores
- 2-110%
- 1-110%
- 2-010%
- 1-09%
- 3-17%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
Nashville’s lead, New York’s challenge
With Nashville SC out in front in the Eastern Conference and New York Red Bulls sitting 10th, the stakes are clear: can the visitors disrupt the league leaders’ march at Geodis Park?
Nashville have 71 points from 32 matches, a 32-point advantage over the Red Bulls, and a goal difference of +43 compared with New York’s -16. The visitors have three regular-season matches remaining after this one, while Nashville have two. Nashville’s 14 wins in 16 home games, with no defeats, make the challenge especially steep.
Two contrasting recent runs
Nashville have scored 11 goals and conceded just two across their last five matches. They have three wins and two draws from their last five in the Eastern Conference, and they have won 14 of 16 at home.
New York’s recent record is less convincing: nine goals scored and eight conceded in their last five, with two wins and three defeats in that run. Their away record stands at five wins, three draws and eight defeats from 16 matches. Still, that recent scoring suggests they can pose a threat if Nashville give them openings.
Nashville have the recent edge
The latest meeting, in August, ended in a 1-0 Nashville win away to New York. Nashville also won the previous meeting at Geodis Park, 2-1 in May 2025. Across the last five encounters, Nashville have two wins, New York one, and two matches have finished goalless.
Absences to weigh
Nashville will be without O. Presthus, while F. Camara is questionable, both with lower-body injuries. New York are missing J. Che with a knee injury, while R. Donkor and D. Nealis are suspended after yellow cards.
Nashville’s home threat
Nashville’s 45 goals in 16 home matches underline the scale of the task for New York, while their 12 goals conceded at home point to a defence that has been difficult to break down. The Red Bulls have scored 19 times in 16 away games but conceded 30, a vulnerability Nashville’s attack will look to exploit.
New York’s recent win over Nashville offers a reason for belief, but the absences and the gap in home form make a repeat upset a tough ask.
Our prediction
Nashville’s home strength and sharper recent defensive record give them the advantage, though New York’s attacking threat could make this competitive. PreviaXI’s model favours the hosts, with Nashville’s greater chance creation pointing to a narrow home win.
Nashville SC 2-1 New York Red Bulls
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