Major League Soccer · Matchday 33 
Our pick1–0Correct result
Atlanta United seek a standings lift against Toronto FC
Atlanta United are 14th in the Eastern Conference with two regular-season matches played beyond this one, while Toronto sit 12th. The hosts will look to turn home advantage into points after a difficult run.
📍 Atlanta Stadium
Preview written:
All Matchday 33 matchesFull head-to-head
Match report
Atlanta United FC beat Toronto FC 3-1. Miguel Almirón opened the scoring in the 22nd minute, assisted by Aleksey Miranchuk, and Cooper Sanchez made it 2-0 in the 40th, with Almirón providing the assist. Miranchuk scored Atlanta’s third in the 51st minute. Toronto FC pulled one back in the 79th minute through Lewis Morgan, assisted by Josh Sargent. There were no red cards.
Atlanta had 20 shots to Toronto’s 13 and led 8-3 in shots on target. The expected-goals figures were 4.29 to 1.31, while possession was 48% for Atlanta and 52% for Toronto. A. Miranchuk was the top-rated player, with a rating of 9.0. The 3-1 result was more decisive than the pre-match model’s 1-0 prediction for Atlanta, which had assigned the home side a 45% chance of winning, a draw 27%, and a Toronto win 28%.
Goals
- 22'Miguel Almirón · Aleksey Miranchuk · Atlanta United FC
- 40'Cooper Sanchez · Miguel Almirón · Atlanta United FC
- 51'Aleksey Miranchuk · Atlanta United FC
- 79'Lewis Morgan · Josh Sargent · Toronto FC
Cards
- 33'Dániel Sallói · Toronto FC
- 90+2'Alonso · Toronto FC
Match stats
⭐ Top-rated player: A. Miranchuk (Atlanta United FC) 9
Ratings and statistics: API-Football.
Confirmed lineups
Atlanta United FC · 4-3-3
- 1L. HoyosG
- 55T. JacobD
- 27P. DíazD
- 6J. AlonsoD
- 3E. BáezD
- 48C. SanchezM
- 14M. AmaroM
- 11G. GaloppoM
- 59A. MiranchukF
- 36B. EmboloF
- 10M. AlmirónF
Coach: G. Martino
Toronto FC · 4-4-2
- 1L. GavranG
- 22R. LaryeaD
- 13B. KuscevicD
- 15N. GomisD
- 3Matheus PereiraD
- 21J. OsorioM
- 6N. DorschM
- 10D. MihailovićM
- 20D. SallóiM
- 9J. SargentF
- 7T. CorbeanuF
Coach: R. Fraser
Match facts
Recent form
Last 5 league games, latest on the right
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Atlanta United FC | 1.3 | 1.8 |
| Toronto FC | 1.6 | 1.9 |
League position
| Pos | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Toronto FC | 32 | -10 | 39 |
| 14 | Atlanta United FC | 32 | -16 | 30 |
Last meetings
- 2026Toronto FC1-2Atlanta United FC
- 2025Atlanta United FC0-0Toronto FC
- 2025Toronto FC1-1Atlanta United FC
- 2024Atlanta United FC2-1Toronto FC
- 2024Toronto FC2-0Atlanta United FC
Absences
Atlanta United FC
- OutD. Chica · Knee Injury
- DoubtfulE. Mihaj · Hip Injury
- DoubtfulW. Reilly · Ankle Injury
Toronto FC
- OutK. Franklin · Shoulder Injury
- OutN. Palacio · Lower-Body Injury
- OutW. Zimmerman · Ankle Injury
PreviaXI model
Model confidence: Open game
- Predicted score
- 1-0
- Expected goals (model)
- 1.50 – 1.13
- Double chance
- 12 · 73%1X 72% · X2 55%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 49%Over 1.5: 74% · Over 3.5: 27%
- Both teams score
- 53%
- Clean sheet
- 32% – 22%Atlanta United FC–Toronto FC
- Half-time result
- X · 42%1 34% · 2 24%
- Half-time / full-time
- 1/1 · 27%X/1 16% · X/X 16%
- Expected corners
- 10.46.1 – 4.3 · Over 9.5: 58%
- Expected cards
- 3.92.0 – 1.9 · Over 3.5: 54%
- Most likely scores
- 1-113%
- 1-010%
- 2-19%
- 2-08%
- 0-08%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
A chance to climb
Atlanta United FC sit 14th in the Eastern Conference on 30 points after 32 matches, with Toronto FC ninth points ahead in 12th on 39. With both teams having played 32 games, Atlanta have an opportunity to narrow the gap and climb the standings, though Toronto arrive with the higher position and a nine-point cushion. Atlanta’s goal difference is -16, compared with Toronto’s -10.
Goals, but little consistency
Atlanta have scored eight goals across their last five matches, but conceded 11 in that spell. Their recent league form reads three losses, a win and another defeat, and their season record stands at eight wins, six draws and 18 losses.
Toronto have been more productive lately, scoring 11 goals in their last five while conceding nine. They have nine wins and 12 draws from 32 games, and their latest five-match sequence includes three wins and two losses. Away from home, however, they have won three of 15 matches.
Recent meetings have been close
Atlanta won 2-1 away to Toronto in the teams’ most recent meeting, in April. The previous three encounters included two draws and a 2-1 Atlanta home victory; Toronto’s other win in the last five was a 2-0 result in March 2024.
Injuries affect both squads
Atlanta will be without D. Chica because of a knee injury. E. Mihaj and W. Reilly are questionable with hip and ankle injuries respectively. Toronto are missing K. Franklin, N. Palacio and W. Zimmerman, with shoulder, lower-body and ankle injuries.
Atlanta’s home scoring edge
Atlanta have scored 23 goals in 16 home matches, averaging 1.4 per game, compared with Toronto’s 14 goals in 15 away games. Toronto have scored freely across their latest five, but their away scoring average for the season is 0.9. Atlanta’s home record is far from dominant—four wins and 10 losses—yet their scoring at home offers a route to the points they need.
Our prediction
Atlanta’s home scoring and the statistical model’s preference for the hosts point to a narrow home win. Toronto’s recent attacking output makes them a threat, but Atlanta can edge a close contest.
Atlanta United FC 1-0 Toronto FC
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