Major League Soccer · Matchday 31 Portland's Home Edge Meets Charlotte's Away Problems
Portland Timbers have conceded nine goals in their last five matches, a weakness that Charlotte's sharper league form could exploit at Providence Park. Both sides have plenty to prove in this Major League Soccer clash.
📍 Providence Park
Match facts
Recent form
Last 5 league games, latest on the right
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Portland Timbers | 1.7 | 1.9 |
| Charlotte | 1.8 | 1.5 |
PreviaXI model
- Predicted score
- 2-1
- Expected goals (model)
- 1.59 – 1.47
- Double chance
- 12 · 75%1X 65% · X2 60%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 59%Over 1.5: 81% · Over 3.5: 37%
- Both teams score
- 62%
- Clean sheet
- 23% – 20%Portland Timbers–Charlotte
- Half-time result
- X · 39%1 32% · 2 29%
- Half-time / full-time
- 1/1 · 24%2/2 21% · X/X 14%
- Expected corners
- 10.66.3 – 4.3 · Over 9.5: 60%
- Expected cards
- 4.52.2 – 2.3 · Over 3.5: 65%
- Most likely scores
- 1-111%
- 2-19%
- 1-28%
- 1-07%
- 0-16%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
Why the model sees a close match
- Power ratings: Portland Timbers -0.26 goals per game (24th of 30 in Major League Soccer), Charlotte -0.03 (15th).
- Portland Timbers's attack (1.40 goals per game) meets Charlotte's defence (1.57 conceded per game).
- Charlotte's attack (1.54) meets Portland Timbers's defence (1.66).
- Home advantage in this competition: home sides score about 25% more goals.
- Put together, the model expects 1.59 – 1.47 goals: Portland Timbers 40%, draw 25%, Charlotte 35%.
Absences
Portland Timbers
- OutA. Bonetig · Shoulder Injury
- OutB. Bye · Leg Injury
- OutZ. McGraw · Back Injury
- OutJ. Mosquera · Foot Injury
- DoubtfulAntony · Knee Injury
- DoubtfulH. Sulte · Lower-Body Injury
Charlotte
- OutN. Berchimas · Foot Injury
- OutB. Bronico · Groin Injury
- OutA. Goodwin · Foot Injury
- OutA. John · Shoulder Injury
- DoubtfulA. Doucoure · Inactive
Injury and suspension list from our data provider, updated every 6 hours. It can change before kick-off.
Chance to score
Portland Timbers
- K. Kelsy10 goals in 23 games28%
- K. Velde9 goals in 32 games21%
- A. Lassiter8 goals in 28 games20%
Charlotte
- I. Toklomati Giorno13 goals in 32 games26%
- Pep Biel11 goals in 32 games23%
- W. Zaha3 goals in 13 games15%
Model estimate: each player’s season goals per minute compared with his team’s, applied to the model’s expected goals for this match and his usual minutes. Players listed as out are left out.
Trends
- Portland Timbers have not won in their last 7 matches.
- 6 of Charlotte’s last 8 matches had over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 6 of Charlotte’s last 8 matches.
Season stats
| · | Portland Timbers | Charlotte | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | All | Home | All | Away |
| Won-drawn-lost | 9-7-14 | 7-4-4 | 13-8-9 | 5-4-6 |
| Goals scored per game | 1.70 | 2.07 | 1.77 | 1.60 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.87 | 1.67 | 1.50 | 1.93 |
| xG per game | 1.43 | 1.51 | 1.47 | 1.08 |
| xG against per game | 1.66 | 1.35 | 1.60 | 1.99 |
| Scored in | 77% | 87% | 80% | 87% |
| Clean sheets | 7% | 13% | 17% | 13% |
| Failed to score | 23% | 13% | 20% | 13% |
| Both teams scored | 73% | 80% | 70% | 73% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 93% | 87% | 80% | 93% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 80% | 70% | 73% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 47% | 53% | 47% | 40% |
| Shots per game | 13.2 | 13.1 | 11.7 | 9.4 |
| Shots on target per game | 4.7 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 3.8 |
| Shots on target | 36% | 39% | 43% | 40% |
| Possession | 51% | 52% | 47% | 45% |
| Passes per game | 499.3 | 518.5 | 454.6 | 450.2 |
| Corners per game | 4.7 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 3.5 |
| Corners against per game | 5.6 | 5.1 | 6.1 | 6.8 |
| Cards per game | 1.7 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.7 |
| Fouls per game | 9.8 | 10.2 | 9.3 | 9.7 |
League matches this season (Major League Soccer). Per-game averages; % = share of matches.
When goals come
Portland Timbers
- 0-157 / 11
- 16-308 / 14
- 31-457 / 11
- 46-605 / 6
- 61-759 / 4
- 76-90+13 / 12
Usual formation: 4-2-3-1
Charlotte
- 0-157 / 7
- 16-3011 / 8
- 31-456 / 4
- 46-609 / 8
- 61-7511 / 8
- 76-90+10 / 9
Usual formation: 4-2-3-1
Goals scored (green) and conceded (orange) by 15-minute period, league matches this season.
Major League Soccer table
Western Conference
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 30 | +32 | 55 |
| 2 |  St. Louis City | 30 | +15 | 51 |
| 3 |  FC Dallas | 30 | +8 | 51 |
| 4 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 30 | +10 | 48 |
| 5 |  Houston Dynamo | 30 | +2 | 47 |
| 6 |  Los Angeles FC | 31 | +15 | 46 |
| 7 |  Seattle Sounders | 30 | +2 | 42 |
| 8 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 31 | -9 | 40 |
| 9 |  Colorado Rapids | 30 | 0 | 39 |
| 10 |  Real Salt Lake | 30 | -3 | 36 |
| 11 |  Portland Timbers | 30 | -5 | 34 |
| 12 |  San Diego | 30 | -3 | 34 |
| 13 |  Minnesota United FC | 30 | -8 | 34 |
| 14 |  Austin | 30 | -18 | 31 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 30 | -39 | 22 |
Eastern Conference
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Nashville SC | 31 | +43 | 70 |
| 2 |  Inter Miami | 30 | +22 | 55 |
| 3 |  New England Revolution | 30 | +8 | 52 |
| 4 |  Chicago Fire | 30 | +8 | 48 |
| 5 |  Charlotte | 30 | +8 | 47 |
| 6 |  Philadelphia Union | 30 | +13 | 46 |
| 7 |  Orlando City SC | 30 | -12 | 41 |
| 8 |  FC Cincinnati | 30 | -9 | 39 |
| 9 |  Columbus Crew | 31 | +1 | 38 |
| 10 |  New York Red Bulls | 30 | -17 | 36 |
| 11 |  Toronto FC | 31 | -11 | 36 |
| 12 |  New York City FC | 30 | +2 | 34 |
| 13 |  DC United | 30 | -15 | 33 |
| 14 |  Atlanta United FC | 30 | -14 | 30 |
| 15 |  CF Montreal | 31 | -26 | 25 |
Next matches
Portland Timbers
- Thu 29 OctSt. Louis City – Portland TimbersMajor League Soccer
- Mon 2 NovPortland Timbers – Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
- Sun 8 NovAustin – Portland TimbersMajor League Soccer
Charlotte
- Thu 29 OctCharlotte – CF MontrealMajor League Soccer
- Sat 31 OctCharlotte – Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
- Sun 8 NovInter Miami – CharlotteMajor League Soccer
Head-to-head: last 2 meetings
Portland Timbers 0 wins · 0 draws · Charlotte 2 wins
- 15/02/2025Charlotte2-0Portland TimbersFriendlies Clubs
- 04/05/2024Charlotte2-0Portland TimbersMajor League Soccer
Portland Timbers have conceded nine goals in their last five matches, and that fragility sits at the heart of this Major League Soccer clash at Providence Park.
Mid-table Portland face a top-five visitor
Charlotte sit fifth in the Eastern Conference with 47 points and a goal difference of plus eight. Portland are 11th in the Western Conference on 34 points, with a goal difference of minus five. Both teams have played 30 games, so the gap in league quality is clear.
Home strength against a leaky road record
Portland are a different side at home, averaging 2.1 goals per game and winning seven of their 15 matches there. Their recent run, however, has produced only four goals in five games, and their form reads DLDLL. Late on, they pose a real threat: 13 of their 51 league goals have come between the 76th and 90th minutes.
Charlotte’s record is more mixed. They have won five and drawn four of their 15 away games, but they have also conceded 29 times on the road. Nine of their 45 goals against have arrived in that same final quarter-hour, so a late push from Portland could matter.
Charlotte’s two-goal habit in this fixture
Charlotte have won both recent meetings between these sides, each time 2-0 at home: a friendly in February 2025 and a Major League Soccer match in May 2024. Portland failed to score in either.
Portland’s injury list grows
Portland are missing A. Bonetig (shoulder), B. Bye (leg), Z. McGraw (back) and J. Mosquera (foot). Antony (knee) and H. Sulte (lower body) are doubtful. Charlotte are without N. Berchimas (foot), B. Bronico (groin), W. Cleary (illness), A. Goodwin (foot) and A. John (shoulder), with A. Doucoure also doubtful.
Our prediction
PreviaXI’s model narrowly favours Portland, and the football backs that up. Portland’s home attack and their habit of scoring late give them a path to victory, while Charlotte’s porous away defence keeps the game open. Charlotte’s superior league position is a real counterweight, so expect a tight, open contest in which both sides find the net.
Portland Timbers 2-1 Charlotte
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