Major League Soccer · Matchday 31 Can Real Salt Lake trouble table-topping St. Louis City?
St. Louis City arrive in Sandy second in the Western Conference, 15 points clear of a Real Salt Lake side that has struggled for consistency. Can the hosts turn a clear underdog role into a result?
📍 Rio Tinto Stadium
All Matchday 31 matchesFull head-to-head
Match facts
Recent form
Last 5 league games, latest on the right
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Real Salt Lake | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| St. Louis City | 1.9 | 1.4 |
PreviaXI model
- Predicted score
- 1-2
- Expected goals (model)
- 1.47 – 1.47
- Double chance
- 12 · 75%1X 62% · X2 63%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 56%Over 1.5: 80% · Over 3.5: 34%
- Both teams score
- 60%
- Clean sheet
- 23% – 23%Real Salt Lake–St. Louis City
- Half-time result
- X · 40%1 30% · 2 30%
- Half-time / full-time
- 1/1 · 22%2/2 22% · X/X 14%
- Expected corners
- 10.45.4 – 5.0 · Over 9.5: 59%
- Expected cards
- 4.62.4 – 2.2 · Over 3.5: 68%
- Most likely scores
- 1-112%
- 1-28%
- 2-18%
- 0-17%
- 1-07%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
Why the model sees a close match
- Power ratings: Real Salt Lake -0.12 goals per game (20th of 30 in Major League Soccer), St. Louis City +0.24 (7th).
- Real Salt Lake's attack (1.41 goals per game) meets St. Louis City's defence (1.44 conceded per game).
- St. Louis City's attack (1.68) meets Real Salt Lake's defence (1.53).
- Home advantage in this competition: home sides score about 25% more goals.
- Put together, the model expects 1.47 – 1.47 goals: Real Salt Lake 37%, draw 25%, St. Louis City 38%.
Absences
Real Salt Lake
- OutJ. J. Arias · Hamstring Injury
- OutE. Eneli · Knee Injury
- OutD. Luna · Knee Injury
- DoubtfulG. Dillon · Foot Injury
- DoubtfulL. Engel · Hamstring Injury
- DoubtfulJ. Glad · Groin Injury
St. Louis City
- OutR. Burki · Head Injury
- OutCelio Pompeu · Knee Injury
- OutA. Matan · Injury
- DoubtfulK. Hiebert · Hip Injury
Injury and suspension list from our data provider, updated every 6 hours. It can change before kick-off.
Chance to score
Real Salt Lake
- S. Solans14 goals in 32 games33%
- Z. Gozo6 goals in 16 games27%
- M. Guilavogui5 goals in 28 games15%
St. Louis City
- Rafael Navarro8 goals in 8 games43%
- C. Holse6 goals in 11 games26%
- M. Hartel6 goals in 16 games23%
Model estimate: each player’s season goals per minute compared with his team’s, applied to the model’s expected goals for this match and his usual minutes. Players listed as out are left out.
Trends
- Real Salt Lake are unbeaten in the last 7 meetings with St. Louis City.
- 7 of St. Louis City’s last 8 matches had over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 7 of the last 8 meetings.
- Both teams scored in 6 of St. Louis City’s last 8 matches.
Season stats
| · | Real Salt Lake | St. Louis City | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | All | Home | All | Away |
| Won-drawn-lost | 10-6-14 | 8-3-4 | 14-9-7 | 5-5-5 |
| Goals scored per game | 1.50 | 1.87 | 1.87 | 1.47 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.40 | 1.37 | 1.47 |
| xG per game | 1.49 | 2.02 | 1.62 | 1.52 |
| xG against per game | 1.44 | 1.38 | 1.19 | 1.28 |
| Scored in | 80% | 80% | 83% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% | 17% | 13% |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | 17% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% | 70% | 67% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 93% | 100% | 87% | 93% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 67% | 57% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | 27% | 43% | 40% |
| Shots per game | 16.0 | 17.2 | 14.1 | 12.8 |
| Shots on target per game | 5.9 | 7.2 | 4.6 | 3.8 |
| Shots on target | 37% | 42% | 33% | 30% |
| Possession | 51% | 50% | 50% | 49% |
| Passes per game | 482.7 | 465.1 | 464.4 | 450.1 |
| Corners per game | 4.8 | 4.9 | 5.4 | 5.1 |
| Corners against per game | 5.9 | 5.4 | 4.8 | 5.7 |
| Cards per game | 2.3 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.2 |
| Fouls per game | 12.0 | 13.0 | 13.3 | 13.1 |
League matches this season (Major League Soccer). Per-game averages; % = share of matches.
When goals come
Real Salt Lake
- 0-157 / 6
- 16-308 / 9
- 31-456 / 7
- 46-605 / 9
- 61-757 / 8
- 76-90+10 / 11
Usual formation: 3-4-3
St. Louis City
- 0-159 / 5
- 16-309 / 2
- 31-4511 / 5
- 46-6011 / 9
- 61-756 / 9
- 76-90+9 / 12
Usual formation: 3-4-2-1
Goals scored (green) and conceded (orange) by 15-minute period, league matches this season.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 30 | +32 | 55 |
| 2 |  St. Louis City | 30 | +15 | 51 |
| 3 |  FC Dallas | 30 | +8 | 51 |
| 4 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 30 | +10 | 48 |
| 5 |  Houston Dynamo | 30 | +2 | 47 |
| 6 |  Los Angeles FC | 31 | +15 | 46 |
| 7 |  Seattle Sounders | 30 | +2 | 42 |
| 8 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 31 | -9 | 40 |
| 9 |  Colorado Rapids | 30 | 0 | 39 |
| 10 |  Real Salt Lake | 30 | -3 | 36 |
| 11 |  Portland Timbers | 30 | -5 | 34 |
| 12 |  San Diego | 30 | -3 | 34 |
| 13 |  Minnesota United FC | 30 | -8 | 34 |
| 14 |  Austin | 30 | -18 | 31 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 30 | -39 | 22 |
Next matches
Real Salt Lake
- Thu 29 OctAustin – Real Salt LakeMajor League Soccer
- Sun 1 NovSan Jose Earthquakes – Real Salt LakeMajor League Soccer
- Sun 8 NovReal Salt Lake – Los Angeles GalaxyMajor League Soccer
St. Louis City
- Thu 29 OctSt. Louis City – Portland TimbersMajor League Soccer
- Sat 31 OctSt. Louis City – San DiegoMajor League Soccer
- Sun 8 NovHouston Dynamo – St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
Head-to-head: last 8 meetings
Real Salt Lake 3 wins · 4 draws · St. Louis City 1 wins
- 02/08/2026St. Louis City1-1Real Salt LakeMajor League Soccer
- 19/10/2025St. Louis City2-2Real Salt LakeMajor League Soccer
- 06/07/2025Real Salt Lake3-2St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
- 05/02/2025St. Louis City1-1Real Salt LakeFriendlies Clubs
- 31/03/2024Real Salt Lake3-1St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
- 25/02/2024St. Louis City1-1Real Salt LakeMajor League Soccer
- 22/06/2023St. Louis City1-3Real Salt LakeMajor League Soccer
- 26/03/2023Real Salt Lake0-4St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
St. Louis City sit second in the Western Conference with 51 points from 30 matches, while Real Salt Lake are 10th on 36. The gap is clear on paper, and Real Salt Lake’s goal difference of minus three compares with a plus-15 for the visitors. The question for Sandy is whether the underdogs can disrupt a side that is pushing up the table.
St. Louis’ away momentum
Form favours the visitors. St. Louis have scored 14 goals in their last five matches and conceded six, and they have won three of their last four league games. Their away record this season is solid rather than spectacular, with five wins, five draws and five defeats on the road, but the attacking numbers are strong: 56 goals in total, with 22 of them scored away.
Real Salt Lake have been more uneven. They have won eight home games this season but lost four, and their recent run of WDLWL shows the swings that have kept them in the lower half. Their last five matches have produced eight goals for and six against.
Head-to-head
These sides have produced close contests. Of their last five meetings, Real Salt Lake have won two, both at home, 3-1 in March 2024 and 3-2 in July 2025. The other three ended level: 2-2 in October 2025 and 1-1 twice, most recently in August at St. Louis.
Team news
Real Salt Lake face a significant injury list. J. J. Arias (hamstring), E. Eneli (knee) and D. Luna (knee) are all set to miss the match, while G. Dillon (foot), L. Engel (hamstring) and J. Glad (groin) are doubtful.
St. Louis also have absentees. R. Burki (head), Celio Pompeu (knee) and A. Matan are out, and K. Hiebert is a doubt with a hip problem.
Our prediction
PreviaXI’s model gives St. Louis City a narrow edge, and the football reasoning backs it up. The visitors have the stronger away attack and the more consistent recent results, while Real Salt Lake’s injury problems leave them thinner in midfield and attack. Salt Lake’s home record gives them a real chance to make it competitive, and a tight, open game looks likely, but the visitors should edge it.
Real Salt Lake 1-2 St. Louis City
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