2–1 Full time Saturday 31 October

Our pick0–1Missed

Estrela under pressure as losing run meets Moreirense

Estrela have lost three straight league matches and arrive at Moreirense with pressure mounting. The hosts are also inconsistent, leaving a close contest between two sides separated by one point.

📍 Parque Joaquim Almeida Freitas

Preview written: Fri 30 Oct 02:07

All Matchday 10 matches Full head-to-head

Match report

Moreirense beat Estrela 2-1, with all three goals coming after the break. Landerson Costa Araújo opened the scoring in the 50th minute, assisted by Manuel Mendonça. Estrela drew level seven minutes later through Lovro Zvonarek, before Nile John scored for Moreirense in the 90th minute of added time, with Tiago Andrade providing the assist. There were no red cards.

The teams had 11 shots each and three corners apiece, but Moreirense registered four shots on target to Estrela’s one. Possession was also close, at 52% for Moreirense and 48% for Estrela. Nile John was the top-rated player, with a rating of 7.9. The 2-1 result differed from the pre-match model’s predicted 0-1, which gave Moreirense a 36% chance of winning, a draw 25%, and Estrela a 39% chance.

Goals

50'Landerson Costa Araújo · Manuel Mendonça · Moreirense
57'Lovro Zvonarek · Estrela
90+5'Nile John · Tiago Andrade · Moreirense

Cards

19'Santiago Serra · Estrela

Match stats

MoreirenseEstrela

52%Possession48%

11Shots11

4Shots on target1

0.52Expected goals (xG)0.74

3Corners3

10Fouls15

4Offsides3

0Saves2

⭐ Top-rated player: N. John (Moreirense) 7.9

Ratings and statistics: API-Football.

Confirmed lineups

Moreirense · 4-2-3-1

13André FerreiraG
76Dinis PintoD
4Kevyn MonteiroD
66Gilberto BatistaD
27KikoD
23N. JohnM
65Guilherme LiberatoM
11LandersonM
7Manuel Ascenção Bebiano MendonçaM
19Tiago AndradeM
79L. VonićF

Coach: Vasco Costa

Estrela · 4-2-3-1

24Léo LinckG
21M. ScholzeD
5S. LekovićD
30Patrick LuanD
3L. Mincarelli DavinD
78Santiago SerraM
6K. Höög JanssonM
99A. MarcusM
14L. ZvonarekM
10I. StoicaM
37L. AntonettiF

Coach: Pepa

Match facts

Recent form

MoreirenseLWDLW

EstrelaWDLLL

Last 5 league games, latest on the right

Goals per game

·	Scored	Conceded
Moreirense	1.2	1.8
Estrela	1.6	1.9

League position

Pos	Team	P	GD	Pts
10	Moreirense	9	-5	11
12	Estrela	9	-3	10

Last meetings

2026Moreirense3-2Estrela
2025Estrela0-0Moreirense
2025Moreirense1-1Estrela
2024Estrela2-1Moreirense
2024Moreirense2-2Estrela

PreviaXI model

Moreirense36%Draw25%Estrela39%

Model confidence: Open game

Predicted score: 0-1
Expected goals (model): 1.29 – 1.34
Double chance: 12 · 75%1X 61% · X2 64%
Over 2.5 goals: 49%Over 1.5: 73% · Over 3.5: 27%
Both teams score: 53%
Clean sheet: 26% – 28%Moreirense–Estrela
Half-time result: X · 42%1 28% · 2 30%
Half-time / full-time: 2/2 · 23%1/1 21% · X/X 15%
Expected corners: 8.04.4 – 3.6 · Over 9.5: 28%
Expected cards: 5.02.6 – 2.4 · Over 3.5: 71%
Most likely scores: 1-112%
0-110%
1-010%
1-28%
2-18%

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →

Estrela’s run raises the stakes

Three consecutive league defeats have left Estrela searching for a response as they travel to Moreirense in Primeira Liga round 10. Estrela sit 12th on 10 points, just one behind 10th-placed Moreirense, with both teams having played nine matches. A victory would offer Estrela a chance to halt the slide and move level with their opponents; Moreirense, meanwhile, can strengthen their position by taking advantage of home surroundings.

A difficult spell for both

Estrela’s recent league sequence is three losses after a draw and a win, while their last five matches have brought five goals for and nine against. Their season record is two wins, four draws and three defeats, and they have not kept a clean sheet.

Moreirense have been uneven too: their latest five-match return is seven goals scored and eight conceded. Across nine league games they have won three, drawn two and lost four. Their last five league results read WLDWL, a pattern that offers little room for complacency despite a stronger overall form comparison.

Recent meetings stay tight

The last five meetings have produced two draws, two Moreirense wins and one Estrela victory. Moreirense edged the most recent encounter 3-2 in May, but the previous meeting ended 0-0. Three of those five matches finished level, underlining how little separates the sides in this fixture.

No absences listed

Neither team has any listed absences, so the focus falls on whether Estrela can arrest their run and whether Moreirense can make home advantage count.

Moreirense’s home test

Moreirense have scored five goals in four home league matches, but have conceded eight in those games and are yet to keep a clean sheet at home. Estrela’s away record is mixed: one win, two draws and one defeat in four, with eight goals scored and eight conceded. Their scoring has tended to come after the break, with most of their league goals arriving between minutes 46 and 75.

Our prediction

PreviaXI’s model narrowly favours Estrela, with the visitors’ recent goal threat and Moreirense’s vulnerability at home pointing towards a tight away win. Estrela’s losing streak is a concern, but the numbers lean towards them finding a way through.

Moreirense 0-1 Estrela

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