0–2 Full time Friday 30 October

Our pick0–2Exact score

Sporting's recent stranglehold: Casa Pia's uphill task in Round 10

Sporting CP travel to the Estadio Municipal de Rio Maior still riding a perfect run against Casa Pia in recent meetings, while the hosts search for their first home win this season. The visitors' form and the head-to-head history set a clear narrative for this Primeira Liga clash.

📍 Estadio Municipal de Rio Maior

Preview written: Thu 29 Oct 18:03

All Matchday 10 matches Full head-to-head

Match report

Sporting CP beat Casa Pia 2-0, scoring in the 13th minute through Pedro Lima Barros, assisted by Iván Fresneda. The visitors sealed the result in stoppage time, when Geny Catamo scored in the 90th minute plus four, again with Fresneda providing the assist. No red cards were recorded.

The statistics reflected Sporting CP’s attacking edge: they had 23 shots to Casa Pia’s 12 and led 11-2 in shots on target. Their expected goals total was 2.71, compared with 0.39 for Casa Pia. Iván Fresneda was the top-rated player, with a rating of 8.9. The 0-2 result matched the pre-match model’s predicted score; it had given Sporting CP a 72% chance of winning, Casa Pia 11%, and a draw 17%.

Goals

13'Pedro Lima Barros · Iván Fresneda · Sporting CP
90+4'Geny Catamo · Iván Fresneda · Sporting CP

Cards

9'David Sousa · Casa Pia
20'Domingos José Gabriel Bandeira · Casa Pia
29'Silas Andersen · Sporting CP
90+3'Maximiliano Araujo · Sporting CP

Match stats

Casa PiaSporting CP

45%Possession55%

12Shots23

2Shots on target11

0.39Expected goals (xG)2.71

3Corners4

11Fouls15

0Offsides2

9Saves2

⭐ Top-rated player: Iván Fresneda (Sporting CP) 8.9

Ratings and statistics: API-Football.

Confirmed lineups

Casa Pia · 4-2-3-1

1P. SequeiraG
18GeraldesD
3KalyD
43David SousaD
75Pedro RosasD
24S. PérezM
80L. OforiM
11M. El BoukammiriM
70João Pedro Seno Luís RêgoM
77B. PauwelsM
9Henrique AraújoF

Coach: Filipe Coelho

Sporting CP · 4-2-3-1

30KaiqueG
22Iván FresnedaD
72Eduardo QuaresmaD
25Gonçalo InácioD
20M. AraújoD
5Sergi AltimiraM
4S. AndersenM
31Luis GuilhermeM
21Pedro LimaM
19N. IrankundaM
97L. SuárezF

Coach: Rui Borges

Match facts

Recent form

Casa PiaDLWLW

Sporting CPWDDWL

Last 5 league games, latest on the right

Goals per game

·	Scored	Conceded
Casa Pia	0.6	1.9
Sporting CP	2.3	1.2

League position

Pos	Team	P	GD	Pts
3	Sporting CP	9	+10	18
16	Casa Pia	9	-12	7

Last meetings

2026Sporting CP3-0Casa Pia
2025Casa Pia0-2Sporting CP
2025Casa Pia1-3Sporting CP
2024Sporting CP2-0Casa Pia
2024Sporting CP8-0Casa Pia

PreviaXI model

Casa Pia11%Draw17%Sporting CP72%

Model confidence: Strong

Predicted score: 0-2
Expected goals (model): 0.71 – 2.22
Double chance: X2 · 89%1X 28% · 12 83%
Over 2.5 goals: 56%Over 1.5: 79% · Over 3.5: 34%
Both teams score: 45%
Clean sheet: 11% – 49%Casa Pia–Sporting CP
Half-time result: 2 · 52%1 12% · X 36%
Half-time / full-time: 2/2 · 49%X/2 21% · X/X 10%
Expected corners: 10.23.2 – 7.0 · Over 9.5: 57%
Expected cards: 5.23.0 – 2.2 · Over 3.5: 73%
Most likely scores: 0-213%
0-112%
0-310%
1-29%
1-18%

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →

Sporting’s situation before kickoff

Sporting CP arrive in Rio Maior as the clearer side on paper. They sit third in the Primeira Liga with 18 points from nine games and a +10 goal difference. Their season form shows more stability — five wins and three draws in nine fixtures — and they have been prolific both home and away this term, scoring 21 goals in total with particularly strong away numbers.

What each side has done lately

Casa Pia have struggled at home: they have not won any of their four home outings so far, managing just one goal at home all season and conceding heavily (13 goals conceded at home). Overall they are 16th in the table with seven points from nine matches and a -12 goal difference. Sporting’s recent sequence has been far more productive; their away scoring average is notably higher, and they have kept two clean sheets this season.

Sporting’s grip on this fixture

The dominant storyline is Sporting’s unbeaten run against Casa Pia. The last five meetings between the clubs have all gone the way of Sporting: 8-0 (2024-01-29), 2-0 (2024-10-05), 1-3 (2025-03-09), 0-2 (2025-08-08), and 3-0 (2026-01-16). That sequence includes multiple multi-goal victories and underlines Sporting’s consistency in this matchup.

Tactical and statistical context

Casa Pia’s home attack has been blunt — they average 0.3 goals per home game — while their defence has been porous in front of home fans, conceding more than three goals per home match. Sporting, by contrast, average more than two goals away per game and have shown the ability to create chances across all 90 minutes. PreviaXI’s model also favours the visitors and projects Sporting as the likelier winner, reflecting the gulf in attacking output and Casa Pia’s poor home record.

Our prediction

This looks like a match where Sporting’s attacking edge and the psychological advantage from recent history will tell. Casa Pia need a compact defensive display and clinical finishing to stand a chance; otherwise Sporting should control the contest and convert chances on the counter and from set pieces. The most likely scoreline reflects Sporting’s superior away scoring and Casa Pia’s home fragility.

Casa Pia 0-2 Sporting CP

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