1–0 Full time Sunday 1 November

Our pick1–0Exact score

Can Nacional Upset Arouca’s Early-Season Order?

Arouca’s strong start and recent control of this fixture make them clear favourites, while Nacional arrive needing a response after a difficult run. The visitors will hope their recent win can disrupt the pattern.

📍 Estádio Municipal de Arouca

Preview written: Sat 31 Oct 00:36

All Matchday 10 matches Full head-to-head

Match report

Arouca beat Nacional 1-0, with the only goal arriving in the 64th minute. Tiago Esgaio scored for Arouca, assisted by Näis Djouahra. Neither side received a red card, and no other goals were recorded, leaving the match decided by that second-half strike.

The numbers show Arouca had the greater share of possession, 62% to 38%, and led 5-1 in shots on target. Arouca also had the edge in expected goals, 0.74 to 0.34. N. Djouahra was the top-rated player, with a rating of 7.7. The 1-0 result matched the pre-match model’s predicted score; its probabilities were 48% for an Arouca win, 24% for a draw and 28% for a Nacional win.

Goals

64'Tiago Esgaio · Näis Djouahra · Arouca

Cards

74'Matchoi Djaló · Nacional
76'Orest Lebedenko · Arouca
78'Danel Dongmo · Nacional
90+4'Pablo Gozálbez · Arouca

Match stats

AroucaNacional

62%Possession38%

12Shots5

5Shots on target1

0.74Expected goals (xG)0.34

8Corners2

6Fouls10

0Offsides1

1Saves4

⭐ Top-rated player: N. Djouahra (Arouca) 7.7

Ratings and statistics: API-Football.

Confirmed lineups

Arouca · 4-2-3-1

12I. de ArruabarrenaG
28Tiago EsgaioD
15Javi SánchezD
3José FontánD
18O. LebedenkoD
6E. van EeM
21Mateo FloresM
19A. TrezzaM
8T. FukuiM
7N. DjouahraM
17BarberoF

Coach: Vítor Severino

Nacional · 4-2-3-1

1Renato BellucciG
7M. JensenD
33Francisco GonçalvesD
38Zé VitorD
21W. KokoloD
6Matheus DiasM
8Miguel BaezaM
11S. GavrielM
15C. LabidiM
12Song Min-KyuM
29N. KaderF

Coach: João Henriques

Match facts

Recent form

AroucaDLDWW

NacionalLLLLW

Last 5 league games, latest on the right

Goals per game

·	Scored	Conceded
Arouca	1.3	0.8
Nacional	1.1	2.0

League position

Pos	Team	P	GD	Pts
5	Arouca	9	+5	17
15	Nacional	9	-8	7

Last meetings

2026Arouca3-0Nacional
2025Nacional1-2Arouca
2025Nacional1-2Arouca
2024Arouca1-0Nacional
2018Arouca0-1Nacional

PreviaXI model

Arouca48%Draw24%Nacional28%

Model confidence: Medium

Predicted score: 1-0
Expected goals (model): 1.56 – 1.14
Double chance: 12 · 76%1X 72% · X2 52%
Over 2.5 goals: 51%Over 1.5: 74% · Over 3.5: 29%
Both teams score: 53%
Clean sheet: 32% – 21%Arouca–Nacional
Half-time result: X · 41%1 35% · 2 24%
Half-time / full-time: 1/1 · 29%X/1 16% · 2/2 16%
Expected corners: 9.65.0 – 4.6 · Over 9.5: 48%
Expected cards: 5.72.9 – 2.8 · Over 3.5: 78%
Most likely scores: 1-111%
1-011%
2-19%
0-18%
2-08%

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →

A gap to bridge

Arouca can strengthen their place among the Primeira Liga’s early pacesetters, while Nacional need points to pull away from the bottom end. After nine matches, Arouca are fifth on 17 points; Nacional are 15th with seven. That makes the visitors underdogs, but a win in their last league outing offers at least a foothold.

Arouca’s steadier platform

Arouca have won five of their opening nine matches, losing twice, and their home record is particularly solid: three wins from four, with eight goals scored and three conceded. Their last five have brought five goals for and four against, a measured run that reflects a team capable of keeping games under control.

Nacional’s recent numbers are more troubling. They have lost four of their last five, scoring four goals and conceding 12. Across the season, they have taken only one point from four away matches and have yet to win on the road. Their latest sequence includes one win followed by four defeats, so the challenge is to turn a rare positive result into something more consistent.

Recent meetings favour the hosts

Arouca have won four of the last five meetings, including both league encounters in 2025 and a 3-0 home victory in February 2026. Nacional’s sole win in that run came in 2018, making the recent record another reason the home side will expect to dictate the contest.

Familiar squads, contrasting form

No absences are listed for either side. That leaves the focus on whether Nacional can improve their defensive resilience: they have conceded 18 goals in nine league matches, compared with Arouca’s seven. Arouca, meanwhile, have kept five clean sheets this season and will look to make their home organisation count.

Arouca’s control against Nacional’s urgency

Arouca’s eight home goals suggest they can pose a steady threat, while their defensive record gives them a platform to manage the match. Nacional have scored four times in four away games, so their route to troubling the hosts may depend on making their limited chances count and avoiding the errors that have contributed to their recent defeats.

Our prediction

Nacional have enough reason to believe they can make this competitive, but Arouca’s home form, stronger defensive record and advantage in recent meetings point towards the hosts. PreviaXI’s model also favours Arouca, with the expectation of a narrow home win.
Arouca 1-0 Nacional

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