Eredivisie · Matchday 11 
Our pick2–1Correct result
NEC Nijmegen’s injury crisis looms over Heerenveen test
NEC Nijmegen arrive with several players ruled out and a worrying run of form, while Heerenveen have scored 11 goals across their last five matches. Their recent meetings have been close, but NEC’s depleted squad raises the stakes.
📍 Abe Lenstra Stadion
Preview written: · Updated after team news:
All Matchday 11 matchesFull head-to-head
Match report
Heerenveen beat NEC Nijmegen 1-0 in the Eredivisie. The decisive goal came in the 66th minute, when Dylan Vente scored for Heerenveen, assisted by Levi Smans. There were no red cards, and Vente’s goal settled the match.
NEC Nijmegen had more possession, with 62% to Heerenveen’s 38%, and recorded 21 shots compared with Heerenveen’s eight. However, both teams managed two shots on target, while the xG figures were close: 1.33 for NEC Nijmegen and 1.46 for Heerenveen. D. Vente was the top-rated player, with a rating of 7.8. The 1-0 result differed from the pre-match model’s predicted 2-1, which gave Heerenveen a 41% chance of winning, a draw 25%, and NEC Nijmegen a 34% chance.
Goals
- 66'Dylan Vente · Levi Smans · Heerenveen
Cards
- 32'Clement Bischoff · NEC Nijmegen
- 32'Oliver Johansen Braude · Heerenveen
- 34'Bryan Linssen · NEC Nijmegen
- 43'Vasilios Zagaritis · Heerenveen
- 61'marcus linday · Heerenveen
- 85'Ayodele Thomas · NEC Nijmegen
Match stats
⭐ Top-rated player: D. Vente (Heerenveen) 7.8
Ratings and statistics: API-Football.
Confirmed lineups
Heerenveen · 4-2-3-1
- 1B. KlaverboerG
- 45O. BraudeD
- 4S. KerstenD
- 3M. WillemsenD
- 19V. ZagaritisD
- 16M. LindayM
- 8N. CourtensM
- 20J. TrenskowM
- 14L. SmansM
- 7M. RiveraM
- 9D. VenteF
Coach: R. Veldeman
NEC Nijmegen · 3-1-4-2
- 1G. CrettazG
- 21T. StormD
- 4P. SchuursD
- 22A. KaplanD
- 6D. NejašmićM
- 34Kevin KersM
- 20N. LebretonM
- 35Jamiro MonteiroM
- 99Clement BischoffM
- 9T. CheryF
- 30B. LinssenF
Coach: Dick Schreuder
Match facts
Recent form
Last 5 league games, latest on the right
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Heerenveen | 1.8 | 1.3 |
| NEC Nijmegen | 1.7 | 1.8 |
League position
| Pos | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Heerenveen | 10 | +5 | 15 |
| 12 | NEC Nijmegen | 10 | -1 | 11 |
Last meetings
- 2026NEC Nijmegen2-2Heerenveen
- 2025Heerenveen3-2NEC Nijmegen
- 2025Heerenveen1-0NEC Nijmegen
- 2024NEC Nijmegen3-0Heerenveen
- 2024NEC Nijmegen2-0Heerenveen
Absences
Heerenveen
- DoubtfulL. Smans · Inactive
NEC Nijmegen
- OutD. Geiger · Inactive
- OutE. Mor · Groin Injury
- OutB. Nuytinck · Ankle Injury
- OutP. Sandler · Injury
- OutD. Tadic · Calf Injury
- DoubtfulY. Moslih · Inactive
PreviaXI model
Model confidence: Open game
- Predicted score
- 2-1
- Expected goals (model)
- 1.79 – 1.59
- Double chance
- 12 · 75%1X 66% · X2 59%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 66%Over 1.5: 87% · Over 3.5: 44%
- Both teams score
- 68%
- Clean sheet
- 20% – 17%Heerenveen–NEC Nijmegen
- Half-time result
- X · 37%1 34% · 2 29%
- Half-time / full-time
- 1/1 · 25%2/2 20% · X/1 13%
- Expected corners
- 9.84.5 – 5.3 · Over 9.5: 51%
- Expected cards
- 3.11.4 – 1.7 · Over 3.5: 38%
- Most likely scores
- 1-111%
- 2-19%
- 1-28%
- 2-27%
- 2-05%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
A chance to widen the gap
The latest meeting ended 2-2 in Nijmegen in March, but this Eredivisie encounter comes with NEC facing a very different challenge: a lengthy list of absences. Heerenveen are seventh on 15 points after 10 matches, four places and four points ahead of NEC, who sit 12th.
That gap could grow if Heerenveen carry their recent attacking form into the Abe Lenstra Stadion. For NEC, the task is to steady a side that has gone five league games without a win while coping with a depleted squad.
Heerenveen have the momentum
Heerenveen have scored 11 goals and conceded four across their last five matches. Their recent league sequence includes three wins in five, while NEC’s run reads four draws followed by a defeat. NEC have scored six and conceded nine in their last five.
The home side have also been more secure at their own ground this season, conceding five goals in five home matches. NEC have yet to win at home, though their away record is stronger: two wins and one defeat from four trips.
Recent meetings have been tight
Heerenveen edged the last meeting at the Abe Lenstra Stadion, winning 3-2 in September 2025. They also claimed a 1-0 home victory in April that year. NEC’s 2-2 draw with Heerenveen in March is the most recent result between them, while the Nijmegen side won 3-0 in October 2024.
NEC’s absences shape the contest
NEC have five players listed as missing for the fixture: D. Geiger, E. Mor, B. Nuytinck, P. Sandler and D. Tadic. Mor is sidelined with a groin injury, Nuytinck with an ankle problem, Sandler with an injury and Tadic with a calf injury; Geiger is listed as inactive. Y. Moslih is questionable.
That number of absences gives Heerenveen a clear opportunity to press their advantage, particularly with NEC having conceded nine times in their last five games. Heerenveen’s L. Smans is also questionable, listed as inactive.
The attacking contrast
Heerenveen’s 11 goals in five matches make their forward line the obvious focus, especially against a defence that has struggled recently. NEC, however, have still scored six times in that span, so the home side cannot assume the visitors will be toothless despite their missing players.
Our prediction
NEC’s injury list and recent defensive record tilt the balance towards Heerenveen, who have been sharper in attack and have the home advantage. NEC can still threaten, but the hosts look better placed to turn their momentum into a win.
Heerenveen 2-1 NEC Nijmegen
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