1–0 Full time Saturday 31 October

Our pick2–1Correct result

Ajax’s scoring surge meets AZ’s recent struggles in a key Eredivisie test

Second-placed Ajax have scored 15 goals across their last five matches, but AZ Alkmaar have won four of the last five meetings between the sides. With only one point separating them, the Amsterdam clash could shape the early title race.

📍 Johan Cruijff Arena

Preview written: Fri 30 Oct 02:08

All Matchday 11 matches Full head-to-head

Match report

Ajax beat AZ Alkmaar 1-0. The only goal came in the ninth minute, when Tolu Arokodare scored for Ajax with Abdellah Ouazane providing the assist. Neither side scored again, and there were no red cards.

AZ Alkmaar had more of the attacking numbers, registering 19 shots to Ajax’s nine and five shots on target to two. The visitors also led on expected goals, 1.11 to 0.70, and corners, 8-1, while possession was close at 52% to 48%. M. ter Stegen of Ajax was the top-rated player, with a rating of 8.3. The result differed from the pre-match model’s 2-1 Ajax prediction, which gave the home side a 43% chance of winning, compared with 27% for a draw and 30% for an AZ Alkmaar win.

Goals

9'Tolu Arokodare · Abdellah Ouazane · Ajax

Cards

26'Weslley Pinto Batista · AZ Alkmaar
30'Abdellah Ouazane · Ajax
44'Mees de Wit · AZ Alkmaar

Match stats

AjaxAZ Alkmaar

48%Possession52%

9Shots19

2Shots on target5

0.70Expected goals (xG)1.11

1Corners8

12Fouls12

0Offsides4

5Saves1

⭐ Top-rated player: M. ter Stegen (Ajax) 8.3

Ratings and statistics: API-Football.

Confirmed lineups

Ajax · 4-3-3

1M. ter StegenG
2Lucas RosaD
30A. BouwmanD
15Y. BaasD
5O. WijndalD
24J. MokioM
4S. AmrabatM
8J. BrandtM
18D. KlaassenF
99T. ArokodareF
68A. OuazaneF

Coach: Míchel

AZ Alkmaar · 4-2-3-1

28J. De BusserG
22E. DijkstraD
3W. GoesD
4L. SchoutenD
34M. de WitD
6P. KoopmeinersM
21D. KwakmanM
7Weslley PatatiM
17V. ByskovM
11R. DaalM
9M. MeerdinkF

Coach: L. Echteld

Match facts

Recent form

AjaxWDDWW

AZ AlkmaarDWLDL

Last 5 league games, latest on the right

Goals per game

·	Scored	Conceded
Ajax	2.9	1.3
AZ Alkmaar	2.0	1.2

League position

Pos	Team	P	GD	Pts
2	Ajax	10	+16	21
5	AZ Alkmaar	10	+8	20

Last meetings

2026AZ Alkmaar1-1Ajax
2026AZ Alkmaar6-0Ajax
2025Ajax0-2AZ Alkmaar
2025Ajax2-2AZ Alkmaar
2025AZ Alkmaar2-0Ajax

Absences

Ajax

OutS. Adingra · Lacking Match Fitness
OutCaio Henrique · Thigh Injury
OutK. Dolberg · Knee Injury
OutO. Edvardsen · Inactive
OutA. Gaaei · Injury
DoubtfulS. Berghuis · Injury

AZ Alkmaar

OutJ. Hornkamp · Injury
OutS. Resink · Knee Injury
OutK. Smit · Injury
OutJ. Zoet · Inactive
DoubtfulW. Goes · Inactive

PreviaXI model

Ajax43%Draw27%AZ Alkmaar30%

Model confidence: Open game

Predicted score: 2-1
Expected goals (model): 1.68 – 1.37
Double chance: 12 · 73%1X 70% · X2 57%
Over 2.5 goals: 59%Over 1.5: 82% · Over 3.5: 36%
Both teams score: 62%
Clean sheet: 25% – 19%Ajax–AZ Alkmaar
Half-time result: X · 39%1 35% · 2 26%
Half-time / full-time: 1/1 · 26%2/2 17% · X/X 15%
Expected corners: 9.95.1 – 4.8 · Over 9.5: 53%
Expected cards: 3.61.6 – 2.0 · Over 3.5: 46%
Most likely scores: 1-112%
2-19%
1-27%
2-07%
1-06%

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →

Ajax’s charge and the table stakes

Ajax arrive in strong attacking form, scoring 15 goals in their last five matches. They sit second in the Eredivisie on 21 points, one behind the leaders’ place in the table, while AZ Alkmaar are fifth on 20. The gap between the sides is just one point, making this a direct test of their credentials in the early title and qualification race.

A win would give Ajax room to strengthen their position above AZ; an away victory would lift the visitors level with their Amsterdam rivals on points. The table is tight enough that neither side can afford to treat this as an ordinary round.

Contrasting recent form

Ajax are unbeaten in their last five league matches, with three wins and two draws, and have scored 29 goals in 10 games this season. Their home record is less dominant, though: one win, three draws and one defeat from five at the Johan Cruijff Arena.

AZ’s recent run has been less convincing. They have taken one win, one draw and three defeats in their last five, scoring four goals in that spell. Their overall season remains competitive, with six wins from 10, but their recent output will need to improve against Ajax’s potent attack.

AZ have had the recent edge

The last five meetings offer AZ a psychological boost: they have won three, including a 2-0 league victory in Amsterdam in October 2025 and a 6-0 KNVB Beker success. The other two ended in draws, including a 1-1 league match in February. Ajax will be keen to end that sequence on home soil.

Absences could shape the contest

Ajax are without S. Adingra, Caio Henrique, K. Dolberg, O. Edvardsen and A. Gaaei, while S. Berghuis is questionable. AZ are missing J. Hornkamp, S. Resink, K. Smit and J. Zoet; W. Goes is also questionable.

Ajax’s firepower against AZ’s response

Ajax’s 29 goals in 10 league games underline the threat they bring, and their 15-goal burst across the last five matches adds to the challenge for AZ. The visitors have scored 20 league goals this season, but just four in their latest five. If AZ are to make their recent head-to-head advantage count, they will need to find a more consistent attacking rhythm.

Our prediction

PreviaXI’s model favours a home win, with Ajax’s stronger recent scoring form and home advantage tipping the balance. AZ’s record in recent meetings suggests they can make this competitive, but Ajax look likelier to create enough to edge a close game.

Ajax 2-1 AZ Alkmaar

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