Liga MX · Apertura - 14 Querétaro vs Cruz Azul preview: Can Querétaro end Cruz Azul's unbeaten run?
Cruz Azul have not lost to Querétaro in their last five meetings, and a visit to La Corregidora gives the hosts a chance to break that run in a tight race for places.
📍 Estadio La Corregidora
All Apertura, matchday 14 matchesFull head-to-head
Match facts
Recent form
Last 5 league games, latest on the right
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Club Queretaro | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Cruz Azul | 2.2 | 1.7 |
PreviaXI model
- Predicted score
- 1-2
- Expected goals (model)
- 1.25 – 1.60
- Double chance
- 12 · 74%1X 55% · X2 71%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 54%Over 1.5: 79% · Over 3.5: 32%
- Both teams score
- 58%
- Clean sheet
- 20% – 29%Club Queretaro–Cruz Azul
- Half-time result
- X · 40%1 25% · 2 35%
- Half-time / full-time
- 2/2 · 27%1/1 17% · X/X 15%
- Expected corners
- 10.44.2 – 6.2 · Over 9.5: 58%
- Expected cards
- 5.12.8 – 2.3 · Over 3.5: 72%
- Most likely scores
- 1-112%
- 1-29%
- 0-18%
- 0-27%
- 2-17%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
Why the model leans towards Cruz Azul
- Power ratings: Club Queretaro -0.12 goals per game (11th of 18 in Liga MX), Cruz Azul +0.54 (3rd).
- Club Queretaro's attack (1.36 goals per game) meets Cruz Azul's defence (1.18 conceded per game).
- Cruz Azul's attack (1.72) meets Club Queretaro's defence (1.48).
- Home advantage in this competition: home sides score about 25% more goals.
- Put together, the model expects 1.25 – 1.60 goals: Club Queretaro 29%, draw 26%, Cruz Azul 45%.
Chance to score
Club Queretaro
- A. Ávila6 goals in 15 games31%
- S. Homenchenko5 goals in 14 games28%
- M. Coronel3 goals in 11 games21%
Cruz Azul
- N. Ibáñez7 goals in 19 games20%
- J. Paradela6 goals in 19 games19%
- G. Fernández6 goals in 22 games16%
Model estimate: each player’s season goals per minute compared with his team’s, applied to the model’s expected goals for this match and his usual minutes. Players listed as out are left out.
Trends
- 6 of Cruz Azul’s last 8 matches had over 2.5 goals.
- Cruz Azul are unbeaten in the last 5 meetings with Club Queretaro.
Season stats
| · | Club Queretaro | Cruz Azul | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | All | Home | All | Away |
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-4 | 2-1-2 | 7-2-4 | 3-1-2 |
| Goals scored per game | 1.33 | 1.40 | 2.23 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.25 | 1.20 | 1.69 | 1.67 |
| xG per game | 1.47 | 1.61 | 1.98 | 2.06 |
| xG against per game | 1.68 | 1.66 | 1.28 | 1.14 |
| Scored in | 75% | 80% | 85% | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 20% | 15% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 25% | 20% | 15% | 17% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | 69% | 83% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | 80% | 85% | 83% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% | 77% | 83% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | 20% | 54% | 50% |
| Shots per game | 13.1 | 14.6 | 18.5 | 18.3 |
| Shots on target per game | 3.9 | 3.6 | 7.1 | 6.5 |
| Shots on target | 30% | 25% | 38% | 36% |
| Possession | 40% | 41% | 56% | 57% |
| Passes per game | 327.9 | 317.2 | 479.4 | 482.2 |
| Pass accuracy | 75% | 76% | 83% | 84% |
| Corners per game | 4.2 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 5.8 |
| Corners against per game | 7.0 | 7.6 | 5.0 | 4.3 |
| Cards per game | 3.2 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 2.2 |
| Fouls per game | 11.9 | 14.4 | 11.2 | 12.5 |
League matches this season (Liga MX). Per-game averages; % = share of matches.
When goals come
Club Queretaro
- 0-152 / 1
- 16-303 / 1
- 31-452 / 2
- 46-603 / 2
- 61-754 / 3
- 76-90+4 / 4
Usual formation: 4-2-3-1
Cruz Azul
- 0-153 / 2
- 16-303 / 4
- 31-456 / 3
- 46-605 / 8
- 61-754 / 1
- 76-90+8 / 4
Usual formation: 5-3-2
Goals scored (green) and conceded (orange) by 15-minute period, league matches this season.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Club America | 12 | +16 | 27 |
| 2 |  Guadalajara Chivas | 13 | +8 | 23 |
| 3 |  Cruz Azul | 13 | +7 | 23 |
| 4 |  Toluca | 13 | +10 | 22 |
| 5 | 13 | +3 | 21 | |
| 6 |  Atlas | 13 | -2 | 21 |
| 7 |  Monterrey | 12 | +6 | 20 |
| 8 |  Club Queretaro | 12 | +1 | 20 |
| 9 |  Santos Laguna | 13 | +3 | 19 |
| 10 |  Atletico San Luis | 14 | -3 | 19 |
| 11 |  Club Tijuana | 12 | +1 | 17 |
| 12 |  U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 13 | -3 | 16 |
| 13 |  Puebla | 13 | -4 | 16 |
| 14 |  Tigres UANL | 13 | -4 | 14 |
| 15 |  Atlante FC | 14 | -6 | 14 |
| 16 |  CF Pachuca | 13 | +2 | 13 |
| 17 |  Necaxa | 14 | -11 | 10 |
| 18 |  FC Juarez | 14 | -24 | 5 |
Next matches
Club Queretaro
- Sat 31 OctFC Juarez – Club QueretaroLiga MX
- Mon 9 NovClub Queretaro – PueblaLiga MX
- Sun 15 NovClub Queretaro – MonterreyLiga MX
Cruz Azul
- Mon 2 NovCruz Azul – LeonLiga MX
- Sun 8 NovTigres UANL – Cruz AzulLiga MX
- Mon 23 NovGuadalajara Chivas – Cruz AzulLiga MX
Head-to-head: last 10 meetings
Club Queretaro 1 wins · 3 draws · Cruz Azul 6 wins
- 22/04/2026Club Queretaro1-1Cruz AzulLiga MX
- 25/09/2025Cruz Azul2-2Club QueretaroLiga MX
- 24/02/2025Cruz Azul1-0Club QueretaroLiga MX
- 24/08/2024Club Queretaro0-2Cruz AzulLiga MX
- 03/02/2024Club Queretaro1-3Cruz AzulLiga MX
- 25/09/2023Cruz Azul1-3Club QueretaroLiga MX
- 30/03/2023Club Queretaro2-2Cruz AzulLiga MX
- 27/08/2022Cruz Azul2-1Club QueretaroLiga MX
- 22/04/2022Club Queretaro0-1Cruz AzulLiga MX
- 20/09/2021Cruz Azul2-0Club QueretaroLiga MX
Every point counts in this round-14 clash, with Cruz Azul third on 23 and Querétaro eighth on 20 in an 18-team Apertura table separated by only three points.
Querétaro rebounding, Cruz Azul slipping
Querétaro’s last five league matches have produced six goals scored and eight conceded, a mixed return from a side capable of sharp spells but inconsistent over time. At home this season they have won twice, drawn once and lost twice in five games, scoring seven and conceding six.
Cruz Azul have been the more potent side lately, netting 13 times in their last five matches and 29 across 13 fixtures this season. Their most recent result was a defeat, following two draws and two wins.
Cruz Azul’s unbeaten run over Querétaro
Cruz Azul have not lost to Querétaro in any of their last five meetings, winning three and drawing two since February 2024. They have scored nine goals across those games and conceded four, a pattern that has made this fixture a recurring frustration for the hosts.
The most recent meeting, a 1-1 draw at La Corregidora in April, gave Querétaro a chance to close the gap, but they could not turn home advantage into a win. A 2-2 draw in September shows they can match Cruz Azul, yet the result still left the visitors’ streak intact.
Our prediction
PreviaXI’s model favours Cruz Azul, and the football explains why: their attack has been the more productive of the two all season, and they have a habit of finding goals late, with more than a quarter of their goals coming between the 76th and 90th minutes. Querétaro have struggled to keep clean sheets, managing only one at home this season, so the visitors should find openings. We expect an open, competitive game in which Cruz Azul’s greater threat in attack gives them the edge and extends their unbeaten run.
Club Queretaro 1-2 Cruz Azul
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