Liga MX · Apertura - 14 Atlas vs Puebla: Four wins in five meetings, but every margin has been a single goal
Atlas have beaten Puebla in all four competitive meetings in the last five, but the matches have been close. Puebla's away form and Atlas's struggles at home make Matchday 14 harder to call than the history suggests.
📍 Estadio Jalisco
All Apertura, matchday 14 matchesFull head-to-head
Match facts
Recent form
Last 5 league games, latest on the right
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Atlas | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| Puebla | 1.0 | 1.3 |
PreviaXI model
- Predicted score
- 1-0
- Expected goals (model)
- 1.60 – 0.96
- Double chance
- 1X · 79%12 73% · X2 48%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 47%Over 1.5: 73% · Over 3.5: 25%
- Both teams score
- 50%
- Clean sheet
- 38% – 20%Atlas–Puebla
- Half-time result
- X · 43%1 38% · 2 19%
- Half-time / full-time
- 1/1 · 32%X/1 17% · X/X 17%
- Expected corners
- 10.55.9 – 4.6 · Over 9.5: 59%
- Expected cards
- 3.91.7 – 2.2 · Over 3.5: 52%
- Most likely scores
- 1-113%
- 1-012%
- 2-010%
- 2-19%
- 0-09%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
Why the model leans towards Atlas
- Power ratings: Atlas -0.22 goals per game (14th of 18 in Liga MX), Puebla -0.56 (18th).
- Atlas's attack (1.31 goals per game) meets Puebla's defence (1.56 conceded per game).
- Puebla's attack (1.00) meets Atlas's defence (1.53).
- Home advantage in this competition: home sides score about 25% more goals.
- Put together, the model expects 1.60 – 0.96 goals: Atlas 52%, draw 27%, Puebla 21%.
Chance to score
Atlas
- F. Monzón4 goals in 11 games28%
- Luís Esteves5 goals in 16 games26%
- R. Mmaee3 goals in 12 games20%
Puebla
- E. Mustre4 goals in 11 games20%
- E. Gómez2 goals in 7 games17%
- K. Velasco2 goals in 10 games13%
Model estimate: each player’s season goals per minute compared with his team’s, applied to the model’s expected goals for this match and his usual minutes. Players listed as out are left out.
Trends
- Atlas have scored in each of their last 10 matches.
- 7 of Puebla’s last 8 matches had under 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 7 of Atlas’s last 8 matches.
- Puebla have not won in their last 6 matches.
- Puebla failed to score in 4 of their last 8 matches.
Season stats
| · | Atlas | Puebla | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | All | Home | All | Away |
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-4 | 1-3-3 | 4-4-5 | 3-1-3 |
| Goals scored per game | 1.62 | 1.14 | 1.00 | 0.86 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.77 | 2.00 | 1.31 | 1.00 |
| xG per game | 1.45 | 1.36 | 0.90 | 1.05 |
| xG against per game | 1.66 | 1.85 | 1.35 | 1.25 |
| Scored in | 92% | 86% | 69% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 23% | 0% | 23% | 43% |
| Failed to score | 8% | 14% | 31% | 43% |
| Both teams scored | 69% | 86% | 54% | 29% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 92% | 100% | 62% | 43% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 43% | 31% | 29% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | 29% | 23% | 14% |
| Shots per game | 13.4 | 13.9 | 12.8 | 12.4 |
| Shots on target per game | 4.2 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 4.0 |
| Shots on target | 31% | 24% | 33% | 32% |
| Possession | 52% | 53% | 42% | 41% |
| Passes per game | 430.8 | 422.9 | 355.1 | 333.4 |
| Pass accuracy | 80% | 80% | 81% | 79% |
| Corners per game | 5.8 | 5.9 | 4.3 | 4.1 |
| Corners against per game | 6.1 | 5.6 | 6.9 | 6.6 |
| Cards per game | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 1.7 |
| Fouls per game | 11.9 | 12.1 | 9.6 | 11.9 |
League matches this season (Liga MX). Per-game averages; % = share of matches.
When goals come
Atlas
- 0-155 / 0
- 16-301 / 10
- 31-452 / 3
- 46-604 / 3
- 61-753 / 2
- 76-90+6 / 5
Usual formation: 4-2-3-1
Puebla
- 0-153 / 0
- 16-303 / 2
- 31-451 / 6
- 46-602 / 2
- 61-753 / 3
- 76-90+3 / 2
Usual formation: 4-2-3-1
Goals scored (green) and conceded (orange) by 15-minute period, league matches this season.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Club America | 12 | +16 | 27 |
| 2 |  Guadalajara Chivas | 13 | +8 | 23 |
| 3 |  Cruz Azul | 13 | +7 | 23 |
| 4 |  Toluca | 13 | +10 | 22 |
| 5 | 13 | +3 | 21 | |
| 6 |  Atlas | 13 | -2 | 21 |
| 7 |  Monterrey | 12 | +6 | 20 |
| 8 |  Club Queretaro | 12 | +1 | 20 |
| 9 |  Santos Laguna | 13 | +3 | 19 |
| 10 |  Atletico San Luis | 14 | -3 | 19 |
| 11 |  Club Tijuana | 12 | +1 | 17 |
| 12 |  U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 13 | -3 | 16 |
| 13 |  Puebla | 13 | -4 | 16 |
| 14 |  Tigres UANL | 13 | -4 | 14 |
| 15 |  Atlante FC | 14 | -6 | 14 |
| 16 |  CF Pachuca | 13 | +2 | 13 |
| 17 |  Necaxa | 14 | -11 | 10 |
| 18 |  FC Juarez | 14 | -24 | 5 |
Next matches
Atlas
- Sat 31 OctAtletico San Luis – AtlasLiga MX
- Sun 8 NovAtlas – CF PachucaLiga MX
- Sat 21 NovFC Juarez – AtlasLiga MX
Puebla
- Sat 31 OctPuebla – U.N.A.M. - PumasLiga MX
- Mon 9 NovClub Queretaro – PueblaLiga MX
- Sat 21 NovPuebla – Atletico San LuisLiga MX
Head-to-head: last 10 meetings
Atlas 5 wins · 3 draws · Puebla 2 wins
- 10/07/2026Atlas3-4PueblaFriendlies Clubs
- 10/01/2026Atlas1-0PueblaLiga MX
- 12/07/2025Puebla2-3AtlasLiga MX
- 15/02/2025Atlas3-2PueblaLiga MX
- 20/07/2024Puebla1-2AtlasLiga MX
- 09/03/2024Puebla2-2AtlasLiga MX
- 29/09/2023Atlas2-3PueblaLiga MX
- 18/03/2023Puebla0-4AtlasLiga MX
- 21/08/2022Atlas1-1PueblaLiga MX
- 12/02/2022Puebla1-1AtlasLiga MX
Atlas’ unsteady run
Atlas have taken eight points from their last five league matches, with two wins, two draws and one defeat, and they sit sixth in the 18-team table on 21 points. Their attack has been productive but their defence has leaked, with nine goals scored and nine conceded across that spell. Puebla, 13th on 16 points, have been drawing more than winning, with three draws and two defeats in their last five and only three goals scored.
Home trouble for Atlas
Atlas’ problems are most visible at Estadio Jalisco. They have won one of seven home games this season, drawn three and lost three, and they have conceded 14 goals there, an average of two per match. Puebla, by contrast, have won three of seven away games this season, a return that is more productive than Atlas’ record at home.
What the head-to-head tells us
Atlas have the upper hand. They have won all four competitive meetings in the last five, including a 3-2 win at Puebla in July 2025 and a 1-0 home win in January 2026. The one meeting they lost in that run was a July friendly, which Puebla won 4-3.
The more telling detail is the margins: every competitive meeting has been decided by a single goal. Puebla have shown they can score against Atlas, and Atlas have shown they can be broken down. This is not a fixture that has been easy to control.
Our prediction
PreviaXI’s model favours Atlas, and the picture supports that. Atlas have scored 21 goals this season against Puebla’s 13, and they have the more potent attack. Puebla’s away record is respectable, but their last five league matches have produced only three goals, which makes it hard to see them breaking through. The likely outcome is a tight, low-scoring contest, with Atlas’s advantage in attack proving decisive.
Atlas 1-0 Puebla
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