Liga Profesional Argentina · Clausura - 14 Velez Sarsfield the favourites, but Central Cordoba have a plan to trouble them
Velez Sarsfield sit fifth in the Clausura table, Central Cordoba de Santiago are 14th. Can the underdogs at home in Santiago del Estero turn a gap on paper into a contest?
📍 Estadio Alfredo Terrera
All Clausura, matchday 14 matchesFull head-to-head
Match facts
Recent form
Last 5 league games, latest on the right
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Central Cordoba de Santiago | 0.8 | 1.3 |
| Velez Sarsfield | 1.2 | 0.9 |
PreviaXI model
- Predicted score
- 1-0
- Expected goals (model)
- 1.14 – 1.12
- Double chance
- 12 · 69%1X 66% · X2 65%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 39%Over 1.5: 67% · Over 3.5: 19%
- Both teams score
- 47%
- Clean sheet
- 33% – 32%Central Cordoba de Santiago–Velez Sarsfield
- Half-time result
- X · 47%1 27% · 2 26%
- Half-time / full-time
- 1/1 · 20%X/X 20% · 2/2 20%
- Expected corners
- 9.05.0 – 4.0 · Over 9.5: 41%
- Expected cards
- 4.92.3 – 2.6 · Over 3.5: 72%
- Most likely scores
- 1-114%
- 0-011%
- 1-011%
- 0-111%
- 2-18%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
Why the model sees a close match
- Power ratings: Central Cordoba de Santiago -0.27 goals per game (28th of 30 in Liga Profesional Argentina), Velez Sarsfield 0.00 (18th).
- Central Cordoba de Santiago's attack (1.00 goals per game) meets Velez Sarsfield's defence (1.08 conceded per game).
- Velez Sarsfield's attack (1.08) meets Central Cordoba de Santiago's defence (1.27).
- Home advantage in this competition: home sides score about 30% more goals.
- Put together, the model expects 1.14 – 1.12 goals: Central Cordoba de Santiago 35%, draw 31%, Velez Sarsfield 34%.
Chance to score
Central Cordoba de Santiago
- M. Santos9 goals in 22 games41%
- L. Sequeira3 goals in 9 games28%
- D. Barrera3 goals in 28 games13%
Velez Sarsfield
- R. Martínez6 goals in 6 games47%
- F. Monzón6 goals in 16 games26%
- M. Lanzini6 goals in 29 games17%
Model estimate: each player’s season goals per minute compared with his team’s, applied to the model’s expected goals for this match and his usual minutes. Players listed as out are left out.
Trends
- Central Cordoba de Santiago have not won in their last 9 matches.
- Both teams scored in 6 of Central Cordoba de Santiago’s last 8 matches.
- Velez Sarsfield have not won in their last 5 away matches.
Season stats
| · | Central Cordoba de Santiago | Velez Sarsfield | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | All | Home | All | Away |
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-8-15 | 5-3-6 | 13-13-4 | 4-8-2 |
| Goals scored per game | 0.76 | 1.07 | 1.20 | 1.21 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.34 | 1.21 | 0.87 | 1.00 |
| xG per game | 1.12 | 1.31 | 0.95 | 0.72 |
| xG against per game | 1.57 | 1.60 | 1.50 | 1.42 |
| Scored in | 52% | 64% | 83% | 86% |
| Clean sheets | 28% | 36% | 37% | 29% |
| Failed to score | 48% | 36% | 17% | 14% |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 36% | 53% | 64% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 55% | 50% | 60% | 79% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 34% | 36% | 27% | 21% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | 29% | 20% | 21% |
| Shots per game | 8.3 | 9.3 | 11.5 | 10.1 |
| Shots on target per game | 2.5 | 2.7 | 4.0 | 3.4 |
| Shots on target | 30% | 29% | 35% | 34% |
| Possession | 41% | 40% | 54% | 53% |
| Passes per game | 300.3 | 306.1 | 421.2 | 395.4 |
| Pass accuracy | 72% | 73% | 76% | 75% |
| Corners per game | 4.1 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 3.7 |
| Corners against per game | 4.5 | 3.6 | 4.6 | 4.9 |
| Cards per game | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 2.4 |
| Fouls per game | 13.7 | 13.1 | 11.4 | 13.1 |
League matches this season (Liga Profesional Argentina). Per-game averages; % = share of matches.
When goals come
Central Cordoba de Santiago
- 0-150 / 8
- 16-301 / 4
- 31-456 / 7
- 46-605 / 6
- 61-754 / 5
- 76-90+6 / 9
Usual formation: 4-4-2
Velez Sarsfield
- 0-1510 / 4
- 16-301 / 4
- 31-457 / 2
- 46-606 / 3
- 61-756 / 3
- 76-90+9 / 7
Usual formation: 4-2-3-1
Goals scored (green) and conceded (orange) by 15-minute period, league matches this season.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
Apertura - Group A
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Estudiantes L.P. | 16 | +12 | 31 |
| 2 |  Boca Juniors | 16 | +13 | 30 |
| 3 |  Velez Sarsfield | 16 | +6 | 28 |
| 4 |  Talleres Cordoba | 16 | +4 | 26 |
| 5 |  Independiente | 16 | +4 | 24 |
| 6 |  Lanus | 16 | +3 | 24 |
| 7 |  San Lorenzo | 16 | 0 | 22 |
| 8 |  Union Santa Fe | 16 | +4 | 21 |
| 9 |  Instituto Cordoba | 16 | 0 | 21 |
| 10 |  Defensa Y Justicia | 16 | -3 | 19 |
| 11 |  Gimnasia M. | 16 | -8 | 19 |
| 12 |  Platense | 16 | -5 | 16 |
| 13 |  Central Cordoba de Santiago | 16 | -10 | 16 |
| 14 |  Newells Old Boys | 16 | -12 | 15 |
| 15 |  Deportivo Riestra | 16 | -7 | 11 |
Clausura - Group A
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Instituto Cordoba | 13 | +10 | 29 |
| 2 | Defensa Y Justicia | 14 | +7 | 27 |
| 3 | Boca Juniors | 13 | +7 | 24 |
| 4 | Lanus | 14 | +7 | 24 |
| 5 | Velez Sarsfield | 13 | +5 | 24 |
| 6 | Newells Old Boys | 13 | +3 | 20 |
| 7 | Gimnasia M. | 14 | +1 | 20 |
| 8 | Independiente | 13 | -1 | 19 |
| 9 | San Lorenzo | 13 | -5 | 17 |
| 10 | Estudiantes L.P. | 13 | +1 | 14 |
| 11 | Union Santa Fe | 13 | -4 | 14 |
| 12 | Platense | 14 | -6 | 14 |
| 13 | Deportivo Riestra | 13 | -3 | 12 |
| 14 | Central Cordoba de Santiago | 13 | -7 | 10 |
| 15 | Talleres Cordoba | 14 | -9 | 9 |
Next matches
Central Cordoba de Santiago
- Tue 3 NovPlatense – Central Cordoba de SantiagoLiga Profesional Argentina
- Mon 9 NovCentral Cordoba de Santiago – LanusLiga Profesional Argentina
Velez Sarsfield
- Sun 1 NovVelez Sarsfield – San LorenzoLiga Profesional Argentina
- Mon 9 NovUnion Santa Fe – Velez SarsfieldLiga Profesional Argentina
Head-to-head: last 10 meetings
Central Cordoba de Santiago 2 wins · 1 draws · Velez Sarsfield 7 wins
- 14/04/2026Velez Sarsfield1-0Central Cordoba de SantiagoLiga Profesional Argentina
- 06/09/2025Velez Sarsfield2-0Central Cordoba de SantiagoSuper Copa
- 12/12/2024Velez Sarsfield0-1Central Cordoba de SantiagoCopa Argentina
- 29/07/2024Central Cordoba de Santiago0-2Velez SarsfieldLiga Profesional Argentina
- 22/03/2023Velez Sarsfield4-0Central Cordoba de SantiagoLiga Profesional Argentina
- 25/10/2022Velez Sarsfield3-1Central Cordoba de SantiagoLiga Profesional Argentina
- 20/04/2022Velez Sarsfield1-2Central Cordoba de SantiagoLiga Profesional Argentina
- 20/10/2021Central Cordoba de Santiago1-2Velez SarsfieldLiga Profesional Argentina
- 21/12/2020Central Cordoba de Santiago0-2Velez SarsfieldLiga Profesional Argentina
- 05/11/2019Central Cordoba de Santiago0-0Velez SarsfieldLiga Profesional Argentina
Velez Sarsfield sit fifth in the Clausura table with 24 points from 13 matches, while Central Cordoba de Santiago are 14th with 10 points and a goal difference of -7. Few pairings in this Liga Profesional Argentina round carry such a gap, and the question at Estadio Alfredo Terrera is whether the hosts can turn a mismatch on paper into a real contest.
Velez’s cushion, Central’s climb
Velez are the side with the cushion. Their Apertura campaign has them third in the group table on 28 points, and they have been comfortable on the road, winning 13 and drawing 13 of their 30 league matches this season. Central have had a harder time. They are 13th in the Apertura standings on 16 points and have conceded 39 goals in 29 games, so every point counts for them in Santiago.
Form: two sides chasing steadier football
Central’s recent run is hard to read as momentum. Their last five results read L-D-D-D-L, with no wins and three draws. Velez have been steadier, with a W-L-D-W-D sequence that brings two victories. Over the season, Velez have scored 36 goals and conceded 26, while Central have scored 22 and conceded 39. Central’s best asset has been keeping clean sheets at home, where they have kept seven.
Head-to-head: Velez dominate, with one exception
Velez have won four of the last five meetings. Their latest victory came in April, a 1-0 win in this same competition. The only result that went Central’s way was a 1-0 Copa Argentina success at Velez in December 2024. Across those five matches Velez scored nine goals to Central’s one.
Our prediction
PreviaXI’s model makes this one of the tightest pairings of the round, with a narrow edge to the hosts. Central have the better home record of the two and are likely to sit deep and make it hard for Velez to find space, and a low-scoring, edgy contest suits them. Velez’s superior league position and their away form suggest they will have chances, but a single goal could settle a game that looks set to be closely fought.
Central Cordoba de Santiago 1-0 Velez Sarsfield
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