Liga Profesional Argentina · Clausura - 14 Barracas Central vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto: home steadiness against a side shipping goals
Barracas Central come into this Clausura clash with two wins, two draws and a defeat in their last five league games. Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto have struggled badly on the road, and that gap in form and solidity is the story of the match.
📍 Estadio Claudio Chiqui Tapia
All Clausura, matchday 14 matches
Match facts
Recent form
Last 5 league games, latest on the right
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Barracas Central | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto | 0.4 | 1.4 |
PreviaXI model
- Predicted score
- 1-0
- Expected goals (model)
- 1.43 – 0.49
- Double chance
- 1X · 88%12 72% · X2 40%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 30%Over 1.5: 58% · Over 3.5: 13%
- Both teams score
- 30%
- Clean sheet
- 61% – 24%Barracas Central–Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
- Half-time result
- X · 49%1 40% · 2 11%
- Half-time / full-time
- 1/1 · 36%X/1 22% · X/X 22%
- Expected corners
- 7.73.9 – 3.8 · Over 9.5: 25%
- Expected cards
- 4.31.8 – 2.5 · Over 3.5: 63%
- Most likely scores
- 1-020%
- 0-015%
- 2-015%
- 1-111%
- 2-17%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
Why the model leans towards Barracas Central
- Power ratings: Barracas Central +0.07 goals per game (14th of 30 in Liga Profesional Argentina), Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto -0.70 (30th).
- Barracas Central's attack (1.02 goals per game) meets Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto's defence (1.33 conceded per game).
- Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto's attack (0.63) meets Barracas Central's defence (0.95).
- Home advantage in this competition: home sides score about 30% more goals.
- Put together, the model expects 1.43 – 0.49 goals: Barracas Central 60%, draw 28%, Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 12%.
Chance to score
Barracas Central
- J. Morales3 goals in 17 games22%
- R. Insúa4 goals in 34 games18%
- N. Briasco3 goals in 25 games17%
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
- I. Hesar2 goals in 11 games15%
- G. Alanís3 goals in 26 games11%
- M. Valiente2 goals in 21 games8%
Model estimate: each player’s season goals per minute compared with his team’s, applied to the model’s expected goals for this match and his usual minutes. Players listed as out are left out.
Trends
- Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto have not won in their last 17 away matches.
- 6 of Barracas Central’s last 8 matches had under 2.5 goals.
Season stats
| · | Barracas Central | Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | All | Home | All | Away |
| Won-drawn-lost | 10-10-9 | 5-3-6 | 3-5-21 | 0-2-12 |
| Goals scored per game | 0.90 | 0.93 | 0.45 | 0.36 |
| Goals conceded per game | 0.86 | 0.86 | 1.41 | 1.79 |
| xG per game | 1.04 | 0.94 | 0.81 | 0.72 |
| xG against per game | 0.78 | 0.89 | 1.30 | 1.65 |
| Scored in | 62% | 64% | 38% | 36% |
| Clean sheets | 34% | 36% | 21% | 7% |
| Failed to score | 38% | 36% | 62% | 64% |
| Both teams scored | 45% | 43% | 31% | 36% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 59% | 57% | 62% | 71% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 28% | 36% | 34% | 43% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3% | 0% | 3% | 7% |
| Shots per game | 10.1 | 11.7 | 10.7 | 9.7 |
| Shots on target per game | 3.5 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 2.7 |
| Shots on target | 35% | 33% | 21% | 28% |
| Possession | 40% | 45% | 46% | 47% |
| Passes per game | 311.4 | 358.8 | 334.8 | 329.6 |
| Pass accuracy | 69% | 75% | 71% | 70% |
| Corners per game | 2.9 | 3.3 | 4.6 | 4.0 |
| Corners against per game | 4.0 | 4.1 | 4.7 | 5.2 |
| Cards per game | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.5 |
| Fouls per game | 12.9 | 12.4 | 11.6 | 11.1 |
League matches this season (Liga Profesional Argentina). Per-game averages; % = share of matches.
When goals come
Barracas Central
- 0-153 / 3
- 16-303 / 5
- 31-455 / 5
- 46-603 / 4
- 61-757 / 0
- 76-90+5 / 8
Usual formation: 5-3-2
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
- 0-152 / 6
- 16-301 / 4
- 31-452 / 4
- 46-601 / 6
- 61-753 / 9
- 76-90+5 / 11
Usual formation: 3-1-4-2
Goals scored (green) and conceded (orange) by 15-minute period, league matches this season.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
Apertura - Group B
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Independ. Rivadavia | 16 | +14 | 34 |
| 2 |  River Plate | 16 | +10 | 29 |
| 3 |  Argentinos JRS | 16 | +4 | 29 |
| 4 |  Rosario Central | 16 | +4 | 28 |
| 5 |  Belgrano Cordoba | 16 | +4 | 26 |
| 6 |  Gimnasia L.P. | 16 | 0 | 26 |
| 7 |  Huracan | 16 | +4 | 22 |
| 8 |  Racing Club | 16 | +2 | 21 |
| 9 |  Barracas Central | 16 | 0 | 21 |
| 10 |  Tigre | 16 | +3 | 20 |
| 11 |  Sarmiento Junin | 16 | -7 | 19 |
| 12 |  Banfield | 16 | -2 | 18 |
| 13 |  Atletico Tucuman | 16 | -5 | 14 |
| 14 |  Aldosivi | 16 | -13 | 8 |
| 15 |  Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto | 16 | -19 | 5 |
Clausura - Group B
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rosario Central | 13 | +9 | 25 |
| 2 | Argentinos JRS | 13 | +6 | 25 |
| 3 | Gimnasia L.P. | 14 | +3 | 25 |
| 4 | Belgrano Cordoba | 13 | +4 | 22 |
| 5 | Sarmiento Junin | 14 | +1 | 21 |
| 6 | River Plate | 13 | +5 | 20 |
| 7 | Barracas Central | 13 | +1 | 19 |
| 8 | Huracan | 13 | 0 | 19 |
| 9 | Independ. Rivadavia | 13 | -4 | 19 |
| 10 | Atletico Tucuman | 14 | 0 | 17 |
| 11 | Banfield | 14 | -5 | 14 |
| 12 | Tigre | 14 | -3 | 13 |
| 13 | Racing Club | 13 | -6 | 12 |
| 14 | Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto | 13 | -9 | 9 |
| 15 | Aldosivi | 13 | -8 | 8 |
Next matches
Barracas Central
- Mon 2 NovBelgrano Cordoba – Barracas CentralLiga Profesional Argentina
- Mon 9 NovBarracas Central – Racing ClubLiga Profesional Argentina
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
- Sat 31 OctEstudiantes de Rio Cuarto – Gimnasia L.P.Liga Profesional Argentina
- Mon 9 NovRosario Central – Estudiantes de Rio CuartoLiga Profesional Argentina
Head-to-head: last 2 meetings
Barracas Central 1 wins · 1 draws · Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 0 wins
- 12/04/2026Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto1-2Barracas CentralLiga Profesional Argentina
- 25/11/2019Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto0-0Barracas CentralPrimera Nacional
Barracas Central have taken two wins, two draws and a defeat from their last five league matches, a run that has kept them in the upper half of the Clausura table. Their opponents, Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto, arrive in a far more uncomfortable position, and the contrast between the two sides runs through this entire fixture.
Mid-table stability against a side in trouble
Barracas sit seventh of 30 teams in the Clausura with 19 points from 13 matches and a positive goal difference. Rio Cuarto are 14th with nine points and a goal difference of -9. Across the season they have won only three of their 29 matches, and none of those wins came away from home.
Rio Cuarto’s leaking away defence
The visitors have conceded 41 goals on the road this season, an average of 1.8 per away match, and have kept just one clean sheet in 14 trips. More than a quarter of those away goals (11 of 41) have arrived between the 76th and 90th minutes, a pattern that suggests their concentration fades when games are still in the balance. Their last five league games have produced five goals scored and eight conceded.
Barracas have been more dependable at both ends. They have scored 26 goals and conceded 25 in the league, and they have kept five clean sheets at home. Their attacking output is modest, averaging under a goal a game, but they have been consistent enough to turn narrow margins into points.
A recent meeting worth remembering
The last time these sides met, in April, Barracas won 2-1 in Rio Cuarto, coming from behind to take all three points. Earlier, in a Primera Nacional fixture in 2019, the teams played out a goalless draw.
Our prediction
PreviaXI’s model favours Barracas Central, and the football logic points the same way. Barracas are the more composed side at home, while Rio Cuarto have struggled to score away and have repeatedly lost their defensive shape late in matches. Expect a cautious, tight game in which one well-timed goal could be enough.
Barracas Central 1-0 Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
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