Primeira Liga · Matchday 10 
Benfica’s firepower meets Alverca’s defensive test
Benfica have scored 26 goals in nine league matches, while Alverca have conceded 13. The visitors’ recent scoring gives them a threat, but their away defensive record faces a formidable challenge.
📍 Estádio da Luz
Preview written: · Team news checked:
Match facts
Recent form
Last 5 league games, latest on the right
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Benfica | 2.9 | 0.9 |
| Alverca | 1.4 | 1.4 |
PreviaXI model
Model confidence: Strong
- Predicted score
- 2-0
- Expected goals (model)
- 2.34 – 0.80
- Double chance
- 1X · 88%12 84% · X2 28%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 61%Over 1.5: 82% · Over 3.5: 39%
- Both teams score
- 49%
- Clean sheet
- 45% – 10%Benfica–Alverca
- Half-time result
- 1 · 53%X 34% · 2 13%
- Half-time / full-time
- 1/1 · 49%X/1 20% · X/X 10%
- Expected corners
- 9.56.8 – 2.7 · Over 9.5: 47%
- Expected cards
- 5.02.1 – 2.9 · Over 3.5: 69%
- Most likely scores
- 2-012%
- 1-011%
- 2-19%
- 3-09%
- 1-18%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
Why the model leans towards Benfica
- Power ratings: Benfica +1.31 goals per game (1st of 18 in Primeira Liga), Alverca -0.02 (10th).
- Benfica's attack (2.18 goals per game) meets Alverca's defence (1.32 conceded per game).
- Alverca's attack (1.30) meets Benfica's defence (0.87).
- Home advantage in this competition: home sides score about 16% more goals.
- Put together, the model expects 2.34 – 0.80 goals: Benfica 72%, draw 16%, Alverca 12%.
Key trends
- Benfica have scored in each of their last 31 matches.
- Benfica are unbeaten in their last 14 home matches.
- Benfica have won their last 4 matches.
- Benfica have won their last 5 home matches.
- 6 of Benfica’s last 8 matches had over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 6 of Alverca’s last 8 matches.
Chance to score
Benfica
- V. Pavlidis11 goals in 17 games33%
- G. Prestianni7 goals in 16 games24%
- F. Aursnes2 goals in 9 games11%
Alverca
- D. Camara3 goals in 5 games16%
- Vivaldo Semedo3 goals in 8 games11%
- Chiquinho2 goals in 7 games10%
Model estimate: each player’s season goals per minute compared with his team’s, applied to the model’s expected goals for this match and his usual minutes. Players listed as out are left out.
Season stats
| · | Benfica | Alverca | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | All | Home | All | Away |
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-1-1 | 3-1-0 | 3-2-4 | 2-0-2 |
| Goals scored per game | 2.89 | 2.25 | 1.44 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded per game | 0.89 | 1.00 | 1.44 | 1.75 |
| xG per game | 2.33 | 2.78 | 1.47 | 1.52 |
| xG against per game | 0.73 | 0.74 | 1.64 | 1.83 |
| Scored in | 100% | 100% | 78% | 75% |
| Clean sheets | 44% | 25% | 11% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | 22% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 75% | 67% | 75% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 100% | 100% | 78% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 89% | 75% | 56% | 75% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 56% | 50% | 44% | 75% |
| Shots per game | 19.2 | 23.2 | 11.8 | 12.0 |
| Shots on target per game | 6.4 | 7.2 | 3.8 | 5.0 |
| Shots on target | 33% | 31% | 32% | 42% |
| Possession | 63% | 64% | 41% | 41% |
| Passes per game | 553.4 | 559.5 | 338.0 | 353.8 |
| Pass accuracy | 88% | 88% | – | – |
| Corners per game | 7.2 | 11.0 | 4.6 | 4.0 |
| Corners against per game | 2.2 | 2.0 | 3.6 | 5.0 |
| Cards per game | 2.6 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 3.0 |
| Fouls per game | 12.2 | 12.0 | 14.1 | 17.8 |
League matches this season (Primeira Liga). Per-game averages; % = share of matches.
When goals come
Benfica
- 0-154 / 1
- 16-302 / 0
- 31-452 / 2
- 46-608 / 4
- 61-756 / 1
- 76-90+3 / 1
Usual formation: 4-2-3-1
Alverca
- 0-152 / 2
- 16-301 / 1
- 31-453 / 2
- 46-603 / 4
- 61-752 / 1
- 76-90+3 / 2
Usual formation: 3-4-3
Goals scored (green) and conceded (orange) by 15-minute period, league matches this season.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 10 | +21 | 30 |
| 2 |  Benfica | 9 | +18 | 22 |
| 3 |  Sporting CP | 10 | +12 | 21 |
| 4 |  Santa Clara | 10 | +9 | 21 |
| 5 |  Arouca | 10 | +6 | 20 |
| 6 |  Academico Viseu | 10 | +3 | 20 |
| 7 |  GIL Vicente | 9 | +1 | 14 |
| 8 |  SC Braga | 10 | +1 | 14 |
| 9 |  Moreirense | 10 | -4 | 14 |
| 10 |  Alverca | 9 | 0 | 11 |
| 11 |  Famalicao | 10 | 0 | 10 |
| 12 |  Estrela | 10 | -4 | 10 |
| 13 |  Vitória SC | 9 | 0 | 8 |
| 14 |  Maritimo | 10 | -12 | 8 |
| 15 |  Nacional | 10 | -9 | 7 |
| 16 |  Rio Ave | 10 | -14 | 7 |
| 17 |  Casa Pia | 10 | -14 | 7 |
| 18 |  Estoril | 10 | -14 | 2 |
Table as of
Next matches
Benfica
- Thu 5 NovBenfica – Lech PoznanUEFA Europa League
- Sun 8 NovEstrela – BenficaPrimeira Liga
- Thu 26 NovPlzen – BenficaUEFA Europa League
Alverca
- Sat 7 NovAlverca – Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
- Sat 28 NovAcademico Viseu – AlvercaPrimeira Liga
- Sun 6 DecAlverca – MoreirensePrimeira Liga
Head-to-head: last 2 meetings
Benfica 2 wins · 0 draws · Alverca 0 wins
- 08/02/2026Benfica2-1AlvercaPrimeira Liga
- 31/08/2025Alverca1-2BenficaPrimeira Liga
Benfica’s goal threat and Alverca’s challenge
Benfica have scored 26 goals in their first nine Primeira Liga matches, the sharpest contrast in this fixture. They arrive at Estádio da Luz in second place on 22 points, while ninth-placed Alverca have 11. The gulf in attacking output is clear: Benfica average 2.9 goals per league game, compared with Alverca’s 1.4.
Yet Alverca are not short of a recent attacking spark. They have scored nine times in their last five matches, and their overall form includes three wins in a row before a defeat. Benfica’s own recent sequence has been more consistent, with four wins from their last five.
Benfica’s momentum, Alverca’s mixed record
Benfica have won seven of nine league games, drawing once and losing once. Their last five brought 12 goals, and their season tally of 26 includes 17 scored away from home and nine at home. They have also conceded only eight times overall.
Alverca have three wins, two draws and four defeats from nine matches. Their five most recent outings produced nine goals for and five against, but their away record has been less secure: seven goals conceded in four league trips. Benfica’s strength in attack meets an Alverca side that has shown it can score, but has struggled to keep opponents out on the road.
Recent meetings have been close
The two most recent league meetings both ended 2-1 to Benfica: at Benfica in February 2026 and at Alverca in August 2025. That history points to a competitive contest, even as the current league figures favour the home side.
Benfica’s second-half threat
Benfica have scored eight of their 26 league goals between the 46th and 60th minutes, their most productive 15-minute period. Alverca, meanwhile, have conceded four of their 13 goals in that same spell. That overlap could make the opening phase after half-time especially important.
Alverca’s nine goals across their last five matches offer a reason for Benfica to stay alert, but the hosts’ overall defensive record is stronger: eight goals conceded in nine league games, against 13 for the visitors.
Our prediction
Benfica’s greater scoring output, stronger league position and home advantage make them favourites. Alverca have shown recent attacking promise, but their away defensive record suggests Benfica can find the decisive openings. Benfica 2-0 Alverca
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