Eredivisie · Matchday 10 AZ Alkmaar vs Twente: Eredivisie Top-Two Hopes on the Line
Sunday's clash in Alkmaar could decide which side keeps pace with the Eredivisie's leaders and which slips out of the top-two conversation. Both sides have strong recent form and plenty to play for.
📍 AFAS Stadion（Alkmaar）
All Matchday 10 matchesFull head-to-head
Match facts
Recent form
Last 5 league games, latest on the right
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar | 2.2 | 1.1 |
| Twente | 1.9 | 1.1 |
PreviaXI model
- Predicted score
- 2-1
- Expected goals (model)
- 1.42 – 1.38
- Double chance
- 12 · 72%1X 65% · X2 63%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 53%
- Both teams score
- 58%
- Expected corners
- 10.05.6 – 4.4 · Over 9.5: 55%
- Expected cards
- 3.01.5 – 1.5 · Over 3.5: 35%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
Why the model sees a close match
- Power ratings: AZ Alkmaar +0.59 goals per game (5th of 18 in Eredivisie), Twente +0.79 (3rd).
- AZ Alkmaar's attack (1.88 goals per game) meets Twente's defence (1.11 conceded per game).
- Twente's attack (1.90) meets AZ Alkmaar's defence (1.29).
- Home advantage in this competition: home sides score about 19% more goals.
- Put together, the model expects 1.42 – 1.38 goals: AZ Alkmaar 37%, draw 28%, Twente 35%.
Absences
AZ Alkmaar
- OutJ. Hornkamp · Injury
- OutS. Resink · Knee Injury
- OutK. Smit · Injury
- DoubtfulJ. Clasie · Knock
Twente
- OutM. Bruns · Inactive
- OutS. Lemkin · Muscle Injury
- OutF. Thorvaldsen · Inactive
- OutL. Unnerstall · Inactive
Injury and suspension list from our data provider, updated every 6 hours. It can change before kick-off.
Chance to score
AZ Alkmaar
- M. Meerdink6 goals in 12 games22%
- R. Daal5 goals in 12 games19%
- Weslley Patati3 goals in 11 games11%
Twente
- W. Weghorst6 goals in 16 games18%
- M. Pjaca6 goals in 16 games16%
- D. Weidmann5 goals in 15 games16%
Model estimate: each player’s season goals per minute compared with his team’s, applied to the model’s expected goals for this match and his usual minutes. Players listed as out are left out.
Trends
- AZ Alkmaar are unbeaten in their last 18 home matches.
- Twente have scored in each of their last 10 matches.
- Twente are unbeaten in their last 6 away matches.
Season stats
| · | AZ Alkmaar | Twente | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | All | Home | All | Away |
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-1 | 3-1-0 | 5-2-2 | 1-2-1 |
| Goals scored per game | 2.22 | 2.25 | 1.89 | 1.75 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.11 | 0.75 | 1.11 | 1.25 |
| xG per game | 2.22 | 2.47 | 2.03 | 1.75 |
| xG against per game | 1.14 | 0.91 | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| Scored in | 89% | 100% | 89% | 75% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 50% | 22% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 11% | 0% | 11% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 50% | 67% | 75% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 89% | 75% | 78% | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 25% | 56% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44% | 25% | 44% | 50% |
| Shots per game | 17.3 | 18.0 | 20.8 | 16.8 |
| Shots on target per game | 6.6 | 6.2 | 7.0 | 5.8 |
| Shots on target | 38% | 34% | 34% | 35% |
| Possession | 59% | 59% | 58% | 57% |
| Passes per game | 537.7 | 558.5 | 539.6 | 523.2 |
| Corners per game | 8.0 | 8.2 | 7.1 | 6.5 |
| Corners against per game | 3.7 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 4.8 |
| Cards per game | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Fouls per game | 11.9 | 10.0 | 11.4 | 12.8 |
League matches this season (Eredivisie). Per-game averages; % = share of matches.
When goals come
AZ Alkmaar
- 0-152 / 2
- 16-302 / 3
- 31-453 / 1
- 46-604 / 1
- 61-754 / 1
- 76-90+5 / 2
Usual formation: 4-2-3-1
Twente
- 0-152 / 1
- 16-303 / 5
- 31-453 / 0
- 46-601 / 3
- 61-754 / 1
- 76-90+3 / 1
Usual formation: 4-2-3-1
Goals scored (green) and conceded (orange) by 15-minute period, league matches this season.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Feyenoord | 9 | +21 | 23 |
| 2 |  AZ Alkmaar | 9 | +10 | 20 |
| 3 |  PSV Eindhoven | 9 | +15 | 19 |
| 4 |  Ajax | 9 | +15 | 18 |
| 5 |  Twente | 9 | +7 | 17 |
| 6 |  Fortuna Sittard | 9 | -1 | 15 |
| 7 |  Heerenveen | 10 | +5 | 15 |
| 8 |  Groningen | 9 | +3 | 14 |
| 9 |  GO Ahead Eagles | 10 | 0 | 14 |
| 10 |  Cambuur | 10 | -3 | 12 |
| 11 |  Utrecht | 10 | -10 | 12 |
| 12 |  Excelsior | 9 | -2 | 11 |
| 13 |  NEC Nijmegen | 9 | -1 | 10 |
| 14 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 9 | -6 | 9 |
| 15 |  PEC Zwolle | 10 | -12 | 8 |
| 16 |  Telstar | 10 | -9 | 6 |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 10 | -10 | 6 |
| 18 |  Willem II | 10 | -22 | 2 |
Next matches
AZ Alkmaar
- Sat 31 OctAjax – AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
- Thu 5 NovAZ Alkmaar – JuventusUEFA Europa League
- Sun 8 NovAZ Alkmaar – GroningenEredivisie
Twente
- Sun 1 NovExcelsior – TwenteEredivisie
- Thu 5 NovTwente – PafosUEFA Europa Conference League
- Sun 8 NovTwente – AjaxEredivisie
Head-to-head: last 10 meetings
AZ Alkmaar 5 wins · 2 draws · Twente 3 wins
- 03/05/2026AZ Alkmaar2-2TwenteEredivisie
- 03/02/2026AZ Alkmaar2-1TwenteKNVB Beker
- 30/11/2025Twente1-0AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
- 25/05/2025AZ Alkmaar3-2TwenteEredivisie
- 14/05/2025Twente2-3AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
- 21/12/2024AZ Alkmaar1-0TwenteEredivisie
- 05/05/2024AZ Alkmaar2-1TwenteEredivisie
- 13/01/2024Twente2-1AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
- 19/03/2023Twente2-1AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
- 11/09/2022AZ Alkmaar1-1TwenteEredivisie
Sunday’s Eredivisie meeting at AFAS Stadion could shape the early contest for the title and the European places. AZ Alkmaar sit second on 20 points after nine rounds, while Twente are fifth on 17. A home win for AZ would stretch their advantage, but a Twente victory would draw the two sides level on points and turn the table into a genuine race.
Context & stakes
AZ have the better goal difference (+10 to Twente’s +7) and the home advantage, but Twente arrive in the kind of form that makes them dangerous. A three-point gap is small enough that every result from here carries weight, and this fixture is one of the first real tests of who belongs in the leading group.
Form
Twente have won their last three league matches in a row and have scored eight goals in their last five games while conceding only five. Their attack has been sharper on the road than at home this season, and they have collected 17 points from nine games.
AZ have been more uneven. Their last five outings produced seven goals scored and seven conceded, with a mix of draws and wins. Their home record is still solid, with six wins from nine matches and only one defeat.
Head-to-head
This fixture has been tight in recent seasons. Across the last five meetings, AZ have won three, Twente one, with one draw. The most recent encounter in May ended 2-2 in Alkmaar, and AZ have scored ten goals across the five games against Twente’s eight.
Team news
AZ will be without J. Hornkamp, S. Resink (knee) and K. Smit, while J. Clasie is a doubt after a knock. Twente are missing M. Bruns, F. Thorvaldsen and L. Unnerstall, and S. Lemkin is out with a muscle injury.
Our prediction
PreviaXI’s model favours AZ Alkmaar, and the football behind that lean makes sense. AZ’s home record and better goal difference give them the edge, but Twente’s attacking threat means this should be an open, competitive game rather than a one-sided affair. Expect AZ to take the lead through their stronger home control, with Twente pushing back and keeping the match alive until the end.
AZ Alkmaar 2-1 Twente
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