Eredivisie · Matchday 10 Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax: Can Sparta Break Ajax's Unbeaten Run?
Ajax arrive fourth in the Eredivisie and unbeaten in their last five meetings with Sparta Rotterdam, who sit 13th. Sunday's match at Het Kasteel looks like another test of that hold on the fixture.
📍 Sparta Stadium Het Kasteel
All Matchday 10 matchesFull head-to-head
Match facts
Recent form
Last 5 league games, latest on the right
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam | 1.8 | 2.4 |
| Ajax | 3.0 | 1.3 |
PreviaXI model
- Predicted score
- 1-2
- Expected goals (model)
- 1.33 – 1.87
- Double chance
- 12 · 75%1X 51% · X2 74%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 62%
- Both teams score
- 63%
- Expected corners
- 10.94.9 – 6.0 · Over 9.5: 64%
- Expected cards
- 4.01.7 – 2.3 · Over 3.5: 55%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
Why the model leans towards Ajax
- Power ratings: Sparta Rotterdam -0.22 goals per game (13th of 18 in Eredivisie), Ajax +0.62 (4th).
- Sparta Rotterdam's attack (1.51 goals per game) meets Ajax's defence (1.30 conceded per game).
- Ajax's attack (1.92) meets Sparta Rotterdam's defence (1.73).
- Home advantage in this competition: home sides score about 19% more goals.
- Put together, the model expects 1.33 – 1.87 goals: Sparta Rotterdam 26%, draw 25%, Ajax 49%.
Absences
Sparta Rotterdam
- OutS. Mito · Injury
Ajax
- OutS. Adingra · Lacking Match Fitness
- OutS. Berghuis · Injury
- OutD. Blind · Back Injury
- OutCaio Henrique · Thigh Injury
- OutK. Dolberg · Knee Injury
- OutO. Edvardsen · Inactive
- OutA. Gaaei · Injury
Injury and suspension list from our data provider, updated every 6 hours. It can change before kick-off.
Chance to score
Sparta Rotterdam
- M. Zonneveld6 goals in 9 games29%
- M. Young2 goals in 9 games12%
- L. Martes2 goals in 9 games12%
Ajax
- J. Brandt8 goals in 15 games23%
- T. Arokodare8 goals in 13 games23%
- D. Klaassen8 goals in 16 games22%
Model estimate: each player’s season goals per minute compared with his team’s, applied to the model’s expected goals for this match and his usual minutes. Players listed as out are left out.
Trends
- Ajax have scored in each of their last 17 matches.
- Ajax are unbeaten in the last 10 meetings with Sparta Rotterdam.
- 8 of Sparta Rotterdam’s last 8 matches had over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 7 of Sparta Rotterdam’s last 8 matches.
- Both teams scored in 7 of Ajax’s last 8 matches.
- 6 of Ajax’s last 8 matches had over 2.5 goals.
Season stats
| · | Sparta Rotterdam | Ajax | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | All | Home | All | Away |
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-4 | 1-2-2 | 5-3-1 | 4-0-0 |
| Goals scored per game | 1.78 | 1.60 | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| Goals conceded per game | 2.44 | 2.40 | 1.33 | 0.75 |
| xG per game | 1.95 | 1.86 | 2.55 | 2.71 |
| xG against per game | 1.97 | 1.99 | 1.34 | 1.18 |
| Scored in | 78% | 60% | 100% | 100% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | 22% | 50% |
| Failed to score | 22% | 40% | 0% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 78% | 60% | 78% | 50% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 89% | 80% | 100% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 89% | 80% | 78% | 75% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 78% | 80% | 78% | 75% |
| Shots per game | 14.7 | 15.6 | 22.9 | 20.0 |
| Shots on target per game | 5.1 | 4.2 | 7.9 | 9.0 |
| Shots on target | 35% | 27% | 34% | 45% |
| Possession | 45% | 50% | 62% | 59% |
| Passes per game | 382.6 | 416.6 | 583.3 | 537.0 |
| Pass accuracy | 79% | 81% | – | – |
| Corners per game | 5.7 | 6.2 | 7.1 | 7.2 |
| Corners against per game | 6.9 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 4.2 |
| Cards per game | 1.7 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 2.2 |
| Fouls per game | 10.1 | 11.2 | 9.6 | 13.0 |
League matches this season (Eredivisie). Per-game averages; % = share of matches.
When goals come
Sparta Rotterdam
- 0-152 / 0
- 16-302 / 6
- 31-452 / 3
- 46-605 / 3
- 61-753 / 4
- 76-90+3 / 5
Usual formation: 4-2-3-1
Ajax
- 0-151 / 2
- 16-302 / 1
- 31-457 / 3
- 46-603 / 2
- 61-757 / 1
- 76-90+6 / 4
Usual formation: 4-3-3
Goals scored (green) and conceded (orange) by 15-minute period, league matches this season.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Feyenoord | 9 | +21 | 23 |
| 2 |  AZ Alkmaar | 9 | +10 | 20 |
| 3 |  PSV Eindhoven | 9 | +15 | 19 |
| 4 |  Ajax | 9 | +15 | 18 |
| 5 |  Twente | 9 | +7 | 17 |
| 6 |  Fortuna Sittard | 9 | -1 | 15 |
| 7 |  Heerenveen | 10 | +5 | 15 |
| 8 |  Groningen | 9 | +3 | 14 |
| 9 |  GO Ahead Eagles | 10 | 0 | 14 |
| 10 |  Cambuur | 10 | -3 | 12 |
| 11 |  Utrecht | 10 | -10 | 12 |
| 12 |  Excelsior | 9 | -2 | 11 |
| 13 |  NEC Nijmegen | 9 | -1 | 10 |
| 14 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 9 | -6 | 9 |
| 15 |  PEC Zwolle | 10 | -12 | 8 |
| 16 |  Telstar | 10 | -9 | 6 |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 10 | -10 | 6 |
| 18 |  Willem II | 10 | -22 | 2 |
Next matches
Sparta Rotterdam
- Wed 28 OctSparta Rotterdam – Fortuna Sittard
- Sun 1 NovGroningen – Sparta RotterdamEredivisie
- Sat 7 NovADO Den Haag – Sparta RotterdamEredivisie
Ajax
- Sat 31 OctAjax – AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
- Thu 5 NovFC Midtjylland – AjaxUEFA Europa Conference League
- Sun 8 NovTwente – AjaxEredivisie
Head-to-head: last 10 meetings
Sparta Rotterdam 0 wins · 3 draws · Ajax 7 wins
- 14/03/2026Ajax4-0Sparta RotterdamEredivisie
- 04/10/2025Sparta Rotterdam3-3AjaxEredivisie
- 27/04/2025Ajax1-1Sparta RotterdamEredivisie
- 22/12/2024Sparta Rotterdam0-2AjaxEredivisie
- 17/03/2024Sparta Rotterdam2-2AjaxEredivisie
- 09/12/2023Ajax2-1Sparta RotterdamEredivisie
- 19/02/2023Ajax4-0Sparta RotterdamEredivisie
- 21/08/2022Sparta Rotterdam0-1AjaxEredivisie
- 09/04/2022Ajax2-1Sparta RotterdamEredivisie
- 28/11/2021Sparta Rotterdam0-1AjaxEredivisie
Ajax sit fourth in the Eredivisie with 18 points from nine matches and a goal difference of +15. Sparta Rotterdam are down in 13th on nine points, with a goal difference of -6. On paper, it is a clear gap between a side pushing for the top of the table and one still searching for consistency. Ajax’s record in this fixture suggests the gap has been hard for Sparta to close.
Ajax’s grip on this fixture
In their last five meetings, Ajax have not lost. They have won twice, including a 4-0 win in March, and drawn three times, most recently 3-3 at Sparta in October. Ajax have scored 12 goals across those five games and conceded six. Sparta have found the net only as often as they have been beaten by Ajax’s attacking edge, and they have not won in this run.
Form: Ajax’s attack against Sparta’s leaky defence
Ajax arrive in strong shape. Their recent sequence reads WDDWW in the league, and they have scored 18 goals in their last five outings while conceding seven. Sparta’s away-from-home numbers have been modest, but their defensive record is the bigger concern: 15 goals conceded in their last five games. Sparta’s recent run includes a draw and two defeats in their last five league outings, so a resilient start will matter.
Team news: Ajax’s injury list
Ajax face a long list of absences. Sparta also have a fitness concern, with S. Mito missing through injury. For Ajax, S. Adingra is out through lack of match fitness, while S. Berghuis, D. Blind, Caio Henrique, K. Dolberg, A. Gaaei and O. Edvardsen are all unavailable.
Our prediction
PreviaXI’s model favours Ajax, and the football reasoning supports that lean. Ajax have the more potent attack and a stronger recent defensive record, and they have been the more dangerous side in open play. Sparta will need to avoid the early goals that have hurt them this season, and their home record gives them a chance to make it competitive. Expect a lively game in which Ajax’s attacking quality should be enough to extend their unbeaten run against Sparta.
Sparta Rotterdam 1-2 Ajax
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