Eredivisie · Matchday 10 Groningen's away attack meets NEC's home struggles
Groningen arrive in Nijmegen with the sharper attack and the better record on the road, while NEC are still searching for a home win this season.
📍 Stadion de Goffert
All Matchday 10 matchesFull head-to-head
Match facts
Recent form
Last 5 league games, latest on the right
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| NEC Nijmegen | 1.7 | 1.8 |
| Groningen | 2.4 | 2.1 |
PreviaXI model
- Predicted score
- 2-1
- Expected goals (model)
- 1.97 – 1.53
- Double chance
- 12 · 76%1X 71% · X2 53%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 68%
- Both teams score
- 69%
- Expected corners
- 10.06.1 – 3.9 · Over 9.5: 55%
- Expected cards
- 3.31.3 – 2.0 · Over 3.5: 43%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
Why the model leans towards NEC Nijmegen
- Power ratings: NEC Nijmegen +0.33 goals per game (6th of 18 in Eredivisie), Groningen +0.20 (8th).
- NEC Nijmegen's attack (1.88 goals per game) meets Groningen's defence (1.56 conceded per game).
- Groningen's attack (1.76) meets NEC Nijmegen's defence (1.55).
- Home advantage in this competition: home sides score about 19% more goals.
- Put together, the model expects 1.97 – 1.53 goals: NEC Nijmegen 47%, draw 24%, Groningen 29%.
Absences
NEC Nijmegen
- OutE. Mor · Groin Injury
- OutY. Moslih · Inactive
- OutB. Nuytinck · Ankle Injury
- OutP. Sandler · Injury
- OutD. Tadic · Calf Injury
Groningen
- OutM. Jeng · Leg Injury
- OutT. Mercera · Injury
- OutE. van der Laan · Injury
Injury and suspension list from our data provider, updated every 6 hours. It can change before kick-off.
Chance to score
NEC Nijmegen
- T. Chery6 goals in 14 games39%
- B. Linssen4 goals in 15 games26%
- Adam Tahaui2 goals in 8 games19%
Groningen
- T. van Bergen6 goals in 9 games29%
- B. Willumsson6 goals in 9 games28%
- D. van der Werff2 goals in 9 games11%
Model estimate: each player’s season goals per minute compared with his team’s, applied to the model’s expected goals for this match and his usual minutes. Players listed as out are left out.
Trends
- Groningen have scored in each of their last 9 matches.
- 7 of Groningen’s last 8 matches had over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 7 of Groningen’s last 8 matches.
- Both teams scored in 6 of NEC Nijmegen’s last 8 matches.
- NEC Nijmegen are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Season stats
| · | NEC Nijmegen | Groningen | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | All | Home | All | Away |
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-3 | 0-3-2 | 4-2-3 | 2-1-1 |
| Goals scored per game | 1.67 | 1.40 | 2.44 | 2.75 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.78 | 2.00 | 2.11 | 2.00 |
| xG per game | 1.70 | 1.67 | 1.72 | 1.80 |
| xG against per game | 1.74 | 1.47 | 2.04 | 2.35 |
| Scored in | 89% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | 11% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 89% | 100% | 89% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 78% | 80% | 89% | 75% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 56% | 60% | 67% | 75% |
| Shots per game | 15.3 | 18.2 | 14.9 | 10.5 |
| Shots on target per game | 4.2 | 4.2 | 5.8 | 7.2 |
| Shots on target | 27% | 23% | 39% | 69% |
| Possession | 60% | 64% | 51% | 43% |
| Passes per game | 491.0 | 551.4 | 436.4 | 402.2 |
| Pass accuracy | – | – | 81% | 78% |
| Corners per game | 5.8 | 6.8 | 4.9 | 3.0 |
| Corners against per game | 3.3 | 3.0 | 4.6 | 6.5 |
| Cards per game | 1.4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Fouls per game | 11.3 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 |
League matches this season (Eredivisie). Per-game averages; % = share of matches.
When goals come
NEC Nijmegen
- 0-153 / 3
- 16-303 / 3
- 31-451 / 2
- 46-602 / 3
- 61-752 / 3
- 76-90+4 / 2
Usual formation: 3-4-2-1
Groningen
- 0-155 / 2
- 16-305 / 2
- 31-453 / 6
- 46-602 / 4
- 61-753 / 3
- 76-90+3 / 3
Usual formation: 4-2-3-1
Goals scored (green) and conceded (orange) by 15-minute period, league matches this season.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Feyenoord | 9 | +21 | 23 |
| 2 |  AZ Alkmaar | 9 | +10 | 20 |
| 3 |  PSV Eindhoven | 9 | +15 | 19 |
| 4 |  Ajax | 9 | +15 | 18 |
| 5 |  Twente | 9 | +7 | 17 |
| 6 |  Fortuna Sittard | 9 | -1 | 15 |
| 7 |  Heerenveen | 10 | +5 | 15 |
| 8 |  Groningen | 9 | +3 | 14 |
| 9 |  GO Ahead Eagles | 10 | 0 | 14 |
| 10 |  Cambuur | 10 | -3 | 12 |
| 11 |  Utrecht | 10 | -10 | 12 |
| 12 |  Excelsior | 9 | -2 | 11 |
| 13 |  NEC Nijmegen | 9 | -1 | 10 |
| 14 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 9 | -6 | 9 |
| 15 |  PEC Zwolle | 10 | -12 | 8 |
| 16 |  Telstar | 10 | -9 | 6 |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 10 | -10 | 6 |
| 18 |  Willem II | 10 | -22 | 2 |
Next matches
NEC Nijmegen
- Sat 31 OctHeerenveen – NEC NijmegenEredivisie
- Thu 5 NovNEC Nijmegen – Omonia NicosiaUEFA Europa League
- Sun 8 NovUtrecht – NEC NijmegenEredivisie
Groningen
- Thu 29 OctGroningen – Emmen
- Sun 1 NovGroningen – Sparta RotterdamEredivisie
- Sun 8 NovAZ Alkmaar – GroningenEredivisie
Head-to-head: last 10 meetings
NEC Nijmegen 6 wins · 1 draws · Groningen 3 wins
- 10/05/2026Groningen2-1NEC NijmegenEredivisie
- 09/11/2025NEC Nijmegen2-0GroningenEredivisie
- 19/07/2025Groningen1-2NEC NijmegenFriendlies Clubs
- 08/02/2025Groningen2-1NEC NijmegenEredivisie
- 03/11/2024NEC Nijmegen6-0GroningenEredivisie
- 25/04/2023Groningen0-1NEC NijmegenEredivisie
- 26/08/2022NEC Nijmegen1-1GroningenEredivisie
- 12/03/2022Groningen4-3NEC NijmegenEredivisie
- 19/01/2022Groningen1-2NEC NijmegenKNVB Beker
- 31/10/2021NEC Nijmegen3-0GroningenEredivisie
Groningen head to Nijmegen on Sunday in the stronger position of the two, and their away form is the main reason. The visitors have scored 11 goals in four matches on the road, an average of 2.8, and they arrive with a squad that has been dangerous when it counts.
Seventh against twelfth, with a gap to close
Groningen sit seventh in the 18-team Eredivisie with 14 points from nine games and a goal difference of +3. NEC are 12th with 10 points and a goal difference of -1. The gap is not large, but it matters, because a win for either side would change the picture in the middle of the table.
Form: attacking momentum against home frustration
Groningen’s recent run reads LWWDD, and they have scored 13 goals in their last five matches. NEC have been more cautious, drawing three of their last five, with a DDDLD sequence in the standings. Their threat has been limited: six goals scored in that spell, against nine conceded.
At home, the contrast is starker. NEC have yet to win at Stadion de Goffert this season, with three draws and two defeats from five matches. They have conceded two goals per home game, which gives Groningen a clear route to goals.
Head-to-head: NEC’s edge, but Groningen have bite
The rivalry has been tight. Across the last five meetings, NEC have won three, including a 6-0 rout in November 2024 and a 2-0 win in November 2025. Groningen have won twice, most recently 2-1 in May 2026, when they beat NEC at home.
Team news
NEC will be without E. Mor (groin), Y. Moslih (inactive), B. Nuytinck (ankle), P. Sandler (injury) and D. Tadic (calf). Groningen are missing M. Jeng (leg), T. Mercera and E. van der Laan, both through injury.
Our prediction
PreviaXI’s model favours NEC, and the football explains why. The home side should have more of the ball and more chances, and NEC’s attacking numbers at home are a better base for a result than their defensive record suggests. Groningen will still be dangerous on the break and have shown they can score on the road, so this should be a open, competitive match rather than a one-sided one.
NEC Nijmegen 2-1 Groningen
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