Major League Soccer · Matchday 31 Atlanta United vs Chicago Fire: Can the Underdogs Trouble the Top Four?
Chicago arrive as the clear favourites, fourth in the Eastern Conference against Atlanta's 14th-place side. Can Atlanta turn their home ground into a platform for an upset?
📍 Atlanta Stadium
All Matchday 31 matchesFull head-to-head
Confirmed lineups
Atlanta United FC · 4-2-3-1
- 1L. HoyosG
- 55T. JacobD
- 27P. DíazD
- 6J. AlonsoD
- 3E. BáezD
- 14M. AmaroM
- 11G. GaloppoM
- 59A. MiranchukM
- 35A. FortuneM
- 10M. AlmirónM
- 36B. EmboloF
Coach: G. Martino
Chicago Fire · 4-3-3
- 1C. BradyG
- 24J. DeanD
- 21A. Hanche-OlsenD
- 4M. MbokaziD
- 32N. AllenD
- 6A. SalétrosM
- 42T. D'AvillaM
- 7M. Haile-SelassieM
- 11P. ZinckernagelF
- 9R. LewandowskiF
- 19J. BambaF
Coach: G. Berhalter
Match facts
Recent form
Last 5 league games, latest on the right
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Atlanta United FC | 1.2 | 1.7 |
| Chicago Fire | 1.7 | 1.5 |
PreviaXI model
- Predicted score
- 1-2
- Expected goals (model)
- 1.37 – 1.56
- Double chance
- 12 · 75%1X 58% · X2 67%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 56%
- Both teams score
- 59%
- Expected corners
- 9.55.2 – 4.3 · Over 9.5: 48%
- Expected cards
- 4.12.0 – 2.1 · Over 3.5: 58%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
Why the model leans towards Chicago Fire
- Power ratings: Atlanta United FC -0.24 goals per game (23rd of 30 in Major League Soccer), Chicago Fire +0.30 (6th).
- Atlanta United FC's attack (1.33 goals per game) meets Chicago Fire's defence (1.43 conceded per game).
- Chicago Fire's attack (1.73) meets Atlanta United FC's defence (1.57).
- Home advantage in this competition: home sides score about 25% more goals.
- Put together, the model expects 1.37 – 1.56 goals: Atlanta United FC 33%, draw 25%, Chicago Fire 42%.
Absences
Atlanta United FC
- OutD. Chica · Knee Injury
- OutW. Reilly · Ankle Injury
Chicago Fire
- OutJ. Elliott · Yellow Cards
- OutA. Franco · Knee Injury
- OutR. Lod · Lower-Body Injury
- OutS. Rogers · Lower-Body Injury
Injury and suspension list from our data provider, updated every 6 hours. It can change before kick-off.
Chance to score
Atlanta United FC
- G. Galoppo2 goals in 5 games24%
- M. Almirón6 goals in 23 games23%
- A. Miranchuk6 goals in 28 games20%
Chicago Fire
- H. Cuypers13 goals in 11 games58%
- R. Lewandowski7 goals in 19 games25%
- M. Haile-Selassie11 goals in 34 games24%
Model estimate: each player’s season goals per minute compared with his team’s, applied to the model’s expected goals for this match and his usual minutes. Players listed as out are left out.
Trends
- 6 of Atlanta United FC’s last 8 matches had over 2.5 goals.
- Chicago Fire are unbeaten in the last 4 meetings with Atlanta United FC.
Season stats
| · | Atlanta United FC | Chicago Fire | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | All | Home | All | Away |
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-6-16 | 4-2-9 | 14-6-10 | 5-5-5 |
| Goals scored per game | 1.23 | 1.40 | 1.73 | 1.60 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.93 | 1.47 | 1.67 |
| xG per game | 1.38 | 1.43 | 1.73 | 1.44 |
| xG against per game | 1.61 | 1.53 | 1.31 | 1.37 |
| Scored in | 70% | 80% | 90% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 13% | 7% | 23% | 20% |
| Failed to score | 30% | 20% | 10% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 80% | 70% | 67% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | 93% | 83% | 80% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 80% | 73% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | 53% | 37% | 40% |
| Shots per game | 13.2 | 13.5 | 14.9 | 12.0 |
| Shots on target per game | 4.2 | 4.6 | 5.1 | 4.6 |
| Shots on target | 32% | 34% | 34% | 38% |
| Possession | 53% | 57% | 52% | 49% |
| Passes per game | 503.9 | 540.6 | 481.4 | 444.3 |
| Pass accuracy | 83% | 83% | 81% | 81% |
| Corners per game | 5.0 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 4.1 |
| Corners against per game | 5.2 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 5.5 |
| Cards per game | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| Fouls per game | 12.1 | 11.1 | 13.1 | 13.6 |
League matches this season (Major League Soccer). Per-game averages; % = share of matches.
When goals come
Atlanta United FC
- 0-153 / 5
- 16-305 / 8
- 31-457 / 7
- 46-606 / 10
- 61-758 / 8
- 76-90+7 / 14
Usual formation: 4-3-3
Chicago Fire
- 0-159 / 2
- 16-307 / 8
- 31-456 / 10
- 46-607 / 10
- 61-7511 / 3
- 76-90+11 / 12
Usual formation: 4-4-2
Goals scored (green) and conceded (orange) by 15-minute period, league matches this season.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Nashville SC | 31 | +43 | 70 |
| 2 |  Inter Miami | 30 | +22 | 55 |
| 3 |  New England Revolution | 30 | +8 | 52 |
| 4 |  Chicago Fire | 30 | +8 | 48 |
| 5 |  Charlotte | 30 | +8 | 47 |
| 6 |  Philadelphia Union | 30 | +13 | 46 |
| 7 |  Orlando City SC | 30 | -12 | 41 |
| 8 |  FC Cincinnati | 30 | -9 | 39 |
| 9 |  Columbus Crew | 31 | +1 | 38 |
| 10 |  New York Red Bulls | 30 | -17 | 36 |
| 11 |  Toronto FC | 31 | -11 | 36 |
| 12 |  New York City FC | 30 | +2 | 34 |
| 13 |  DC United | 30 | -15 | 33 |
| 14 |  Atlanta United FC | 30 | -14 | 30 |
| 15 |  CF Montreal | 31 | -26 | 25 |
Next matches
Atlanta United FC
- Thu 29 OctNew York City FC – Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
- Mon 2 NovAtlanta United FC – Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
- Sun 8 NovNew York Red Bulls – Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
Chicago Fire
- Thu 29 OctChicago Fire – Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
- Sun 1 NovColorado Rapids – Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
- Sun 8 NovChicago Fire – Columbus CrewMajor League Soccer
Head-to-head: last 10 meetings
Atlanta United FC 3 wins · 4 draws · Chicago Fire 3 wins
- 12/04/2026Chicago Fire1-0Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
- 16/07/2025Atlanta United FC2-2Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
- 10/05/2025Chicago Fire2-1Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
- 28/04/2024Chicago Fire0-0Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
- 31/03/2024Atlanta United FC3-0Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
- 21/05/2023Chicago Fire3-3Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
- 23/04/2023Atlanta United FC2-1Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
- 30/07/2022Chicago Fire0-0Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
- 07/05/2022Atlanta United FC4-1Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
- 04/07/2021Chicago Fire3-0Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
Chicago are chasing their place near the top of the Eastern Conference, while Atlanta are trying to stop a difficult season from slipping further away. On paper, this is a clear favourite against an underdog, and the question for Atlanta is whether they can make it a real contest.
Chicago’s position against Atlanta’s struggles
Chicago sit fourth with 48 points from 30 matches and a goal difference of +8. Atlanta are 14th of 15 with 30 points and a goal difference of -14. The gap is wide, but it has not been a one-sided story across the season: Chicago have scored 52 goals, while Atlanta have conceded 51.
Form: two sides heading in different directions
Atlanta’s recent results have been mixed, with two wins, a draw and two defeats in their last five. They have scored and conceded eight goals in that run, so their games have been open at both ends. Chicago have lost two of their last five but have won their last three, a run that has built momentum at the right moment.
At home, Atlanta have been inconsistent, winning four of 15 matches and losing nine. Their home defence has been their weak point, conceding an average of 1.9 goals per game there.
A rivalry that has tilted toward Chicago
In their last five meetings, Chicago have won twice, drawn twice and lost once. Their most recent encounter, in April, ended 1-0 in Chicago’s favour. Atlanta’s only win in that run came in March 2024, a 3-0 victory at home.
Team news
Atlanta will be without D. Chica, who is out with a knee injury, and W. Reilly is a doubt with an ankle problem.
Chicago have a bigger list of concerns. J. Elliott misses the match after accumulating yellow cards, and R. Lod is ruled out with a lower-body injury. A. Franco (knee) and S. Rogers (lower body) are both doubtful.
Our prediction
PreviaXI’s model favours Chicago, and the football reasons are clear. Chicago have scored more goals this season and have been the more reliable side away from home, while Atlanta’s defence has struggled to keep opponents out. Atlanta have the home crowd and a team that can score, so this should not be a comfortable afternoon for the visitors. Still, Chicago’s stronger attack and better recent form should give them the edge, with Atlanta making them work until late on.
Atlanta United FC 1-2 Chicago Fire
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