Major League Soccer · Matchday 31 Orlando City vs NYCFC: Can the Lions Finally Break New York's Grip?
New York City FC have not lost to Orlando City in their last five Major League Soccer meetings. Now they travel to Florida, sitting 12th in the Eastern Conference, looking to extend that run.
📍 Exploria Stadium
All Matchday 31 matchesFull head-to-head
Confirmed lineups
Orlando City SC · 4-2-3-1
- 71M. CrépeauG
- 77I. AnguloD
- 4D. BrekaloD
- 57IagoD
- 27Vinícius NogueiraD
- 8B. OjedaM
- 16W. CartagenaM
- 20E. AtuestaM
- 7A. GriezmannM
- 10M. OjedaM
- 22Justin EllisF
Coach: M. Perelman
New York City FC · 4-2-3-1
- 49M. FreeseG
- 24T. GrayD
- 13Thiago MartinsD
- 6J. SandsD
- 22K. O'TooleD
- 21A. O'NeillM
- 8A. PereaM
- 26A. OjedaM
- 7N. Fernández MercauM
- 17H. WolfM
- 16A. MartínezF
Coach: P. Jansen
Match facts
Recent form
Last 5 league games, latest on the right
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Orlando City SC | 1.9 | 2.3 |
| New York City FC | 1.4 | 1.4 |
PreviaXI model
- Predicted score
- 2-1
- Expected goals (model)
- 1.79 – 1.54
- Double chance
- 12 · 76%1X 68% · X2 56%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 65%
- Both teams score
- 66%
- Expected corners
- 9.74.9 – 4.8 · Over 9.5: 49%
- Expected cards
- 4.42.4 – 2.0 · Over 3.5: 65%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
Why the model leans towards Orlando City SC
- Power ratings: Orlando City SC -0.06 goals per game (17th of 30 in Major League Soccer), New York City FC +0.07 (12th).
- Orlando City SC's attack (1.84 goals per game) meets New York City FC's defence (1.34 conceded per game).
- New York City FC's attack (1.41) meets Orlando City SC's defence (1.90).
- Home advantage in this competition: home sides score about 25% more goals.
- Put together, the model expects 1.79 – 1.54 goals: Orlando City SC 44%, draw 24%, New York City FC 32%.
Absences
Orlando City SC
- OutG. Dorsey · Back Injury
- OutR. Jansson · Foot Injury
- OutLuis Otavio · Yellow Cards
- OutT. Spicer · Foot Injury
- DoubtfulB. Rhein · Injury
- DoubtfulVinicius Nogueira · Shoulder Injury
New York City FC
- OutD. Baiera · Knee Injury
- OutA. Farnos · Leg Injury
- OutM. Moralez · Knee Injury
- OutK. Parks · Leg Injury
- OutK. Trewin · Ankle Injury
Injury and suspension list from our data provider, updated every 6 hours. It can change before kick-off.
Chance to score
Orlando City SC
- A. Griezmann13 goals in 17 games46%
- M. Ojeda15 goals in 24 games41%
- I. Angulo6 goals in 35 games14%
New York City FC
- N. Fernández Mercau15 goals in 32 games39%
- H. Wolf6 goals in 26 games20%
- Luighi Hanri4 goals in 15 games20%
Model estimate: each player’s season goals per minute compared with his team’s, applied to the model’s expected goals for this match and his usual minutes. Players listed as out are left out.
Trends
- Orlando City SC have scored in each of their last 18 matches.
- New York City FC are unbeaten in the last 8 meetings with Orlando City SC.
- Orlando City SC have won their last 5 home matches.
- 7 of Orlando City SC’s last 8 matches had over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 6 of Orlando City SC’s last 8 matches.
- Orlando City SC are unbeaten in their last 5 home matches.
Season stats
| · | Orlando City SC | New York City FC | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | All | Home | All | Away |
| Won-drawn-lost | 12-5-13 | 9-2-4 | 8-10-12 | 4-5-6 |
| Goals scored per game | 1.93 | 2.00 | 1.43 | 1.07 |
| Goals conceded per game | 2.33 | 1.33 | 1.37 | 1.27 |
| xG per game | 1.70 | 1.96 | 1.34 | 1.19 |
| xG against per game | 2.19 | 2.02 | 1.45 | 1.49 |
| Scored in | 83% | 93% | 80% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 13% | 20% | 17% | 13% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 7% | 20% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 73% | 67% | 67% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 90% | 80% | 87% | 87% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 77% | 67% | 50% | 40% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 60% | 33% | 23% | 7% |
| Shots per game | 11.4 | 12.7 | 11.2 | 8.8 |
| Shots on target per game | 4.9 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 3.6 |
| Shots on target | 43% | 39% | 45% | 41% |
| Possession | 45% | 46% | 56% | 55% |
| Passes per game | 404.6 | 417.9 | 541.2 | 520.5 |
| Pass accuracy | 84% | 84% | – | – |
| Corners per game | 4.0 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 2.9 |
| Corners against per game | 6.8 | 6.6 | 4.7 | 5.5 |
| Cards per game | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 1.9 |
| Fouls per game | 10.8 | 11.4 | 11.8 | 13.1 |
League matches this season (Major League Soccer). Per-game averages; % = share of matches.
When goals come
Orlando City SC
- 0-156 / 7
- 16-3014 / 12
- 31-453 / 10
- 46-6011 / 16
- 61-759 / 8
- 76-90+18 / 15
Usual formation: 4-2-3-1
New York City FC
- 0-155 / 6
- 16-3011 / 5
- 31-459 / 6
- 46-608 / 7
- 61-755 / 8
- 76-90+4 / 10
Usual formation: 4-2-3-1
Goals scored (green) and conceded (orange) by 15-minute period, league matches this season.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Nashville SC | 31 | +43 | 70 |
| 2 |  Inter Miami | 30 | +22 | 55 |
| 3 |  New England Revolution | 30 | +8 | 52 |
| 4 |  Chicago Fire | 30 | +8 | 48 |
| 5 |  Charlotte | 30 | +8 | 47 |
| 6 |  Philadelphia Union | 30 | +13 | 46 |
| 7 |  Orlando City SC | 30 | -12 | 41 |
| 8 |  FC Cincinnati | 30 | -9 | 39 |
| 9 |  Columbus Crew | 31 | +1 | 38 |
| 10 |  New York Red Bulls | 30 | -17 | 36 |
| 11 |  Toronto FC | 31 | -11 | 36 |
| 12 |  New York City FC | 30 | +2 | 34 |
| 13 |  DC United | 30 | -15 | 33 |
| 14 |  Atlanta United FC | 30 | -14 | 30 |
| 15 |  CF Montreal | 31 | -26 | 25 |
Next matches
Orlando City SC
- Thu 29 OctChicago Fire – Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
- Sat 31 OctCharlotte – Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
- Sun 8 NovOrlando City SC – New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer
New York City FC
- Thu 29 OctNew York City FC – Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
- Sat 31 OctNew York City FC – CF MontrealMajor League Soccer
- Sun 8 NovDC United – New York City FCMajor League Soccer
Head-to-head: last 10 meetings
Orlando City SC 1 wins · 2 draws · New York City FC 7 wins
- 07/03/2026New York City FC5-0Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
- 17/07/2025Orlando City SC1-2New York City FCMajor League Soccer
- 09/03/2025New York City FC2-1Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
- 20/07/2024Orlando City SC1-1New York City FCMajor League Soccer
- 28/06/2024New York City FC4-2Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
- 20/09/2023New York City FC2-0Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
- 17/05/2023Orlando City SC1-1New York City FCMajor League Soccer
- 02/10/2022New York City FC2-1Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
- 28/08/2022Orlando City SC2-1New York City FCMajor League Soccer
- 25/07/2021New York City FC5-0Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
New York City FC head to Orlando sitting 12th in a 15-team league with 34 points, and their recent results have been uneven, with two draws and three defeats in their last five league matches. Their away record this season has been modest, with four wins from 15 road games.
Context and stakes
Orlando City are seventh with 41 points, a place above the middle of the table. A home win would strengthen their position in the Eastern Conference and keep them in touch with the sides above them, while New York need points to climb out of the lower half.
New York’s hold over Orlando
The head-to-head story is clear. NYCFC have been unbeaten against Orlando in their last five league meetings, collecting four wins and a draw. The most recent result, a 5-0 win in March 2026, was the heaviest of the run. Across those five games New York have scored 14 goals to Orlando’s five, and the only time the Lions have avoided defeat was a 1-1 draw at Exploria Stadium in July 2024.
Orlando’s home scoring against New York’s away wobbles
Orlando have been dangerous at home this season, with nine wins from 15 matches and 30 goals scored in front of their own supporters. Their defensive record has been less secure overall, having conceded 70 goals across the campaign.
New York have been more consistent without the ball, conceding 41 in 30 games, but they have struggled to score on the road, managing only 16 goals in 15 away matches.
Team news
Orlando will be without R. Jansson and T. Spicer, both sidelined by foot injuries, and Luis Otavio, who misses out after accumulating yellow cards. G. Dorsey, B. Rhein and Vinicius Nogueira are all doubts with back, general and shoulder problems.
New York face a significant list of absences too. D. Baiera, A. Farnos and M. Moralez are all ruled out through knee and leg injuries, while K. Parks and K. Trewin are doubtful with leg and ankle problems.
Our prediction
PreviaXI’s model favours Orlando, and the football behind that lean is their home advantage and sharper attacking output on their own turf. New York’s record against this opponent is impressive, but their away form and a depleted squad make it harder to win in Florida. Expect an open contest in which both sides find the net, with Orlando just edging it.
Orlando City SC 2-1 New York City FC
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