Vitória SC Look to Extend Their Unbeaten Run Over Maritimo

Vitória SC have won just one of their last eight Primeira Liga matches, and their home form has been fragile. Still, they go into Friday’s game against Maritimo with a record over their visitors that is hard to ignore.

Two sides with little room for error

Both clubs are in the lower half of an 18-team table. Maritimo sit 11th with 8 points, while Vitória are 15th with 5. Both have a goal difference of -5, so neither side can afford another slip. At the Estádio D. Afonso Henriques, Vitória have one win, two draws and one defeat from four league games.

Late goals and leaking defences

Vitória’s attack has struggled to find a rhythm. They have scored five league goals this season, and three of them came between the 61st and 75th minutes, which suggests they tend to wake up after the hour. Their defence has been the bigger concern, with 10 goals conceded, eight of them on the road.

Maritimo have also been inconsistent away from home, with one win, one draw and two defeats in four trips. They have scored nine times in the league, and four of those goals came in the final 15 minutes.

Five meetings, one unbeaten Vitória

This is where the story lies. Vitória have not lost any of their last five meetings with Maritimo. They have won four and drawn one, a goalless stalemate in May 2021. Their most recent win in this run came in April 2023, when they beat Maritimo 2-1 away from home. Earlier, they won 1-0 at home in November 2022, 1-0 away in March 2022 and 2-1 at home in October 2021.

Maritimo have not beaten Vitória in that span, and the sequence suggests Vitória have usually found a way to win tight games.

Our prediction

PreviaXI’s model favours Vitória SC, who have more attacking threat than their opponents and the advantage of playing at home. We expect a tight, cagey game between two teams who struggle to score and who have conceded plenty. Vitória’s habit of scoring late in matches, combined with their record against Maritimo, points to a narrow home win.

Vitória SC 1-0 Maritimo