Primeira Liga · Matchday 9 Estoril under the cosh as Moreirense visit Cascais
Moreirense arrive in Cascais with a lot less pressure than the hosts, who are searching for a first league win of the season while sitting bottom of the table on Sunday.
📍 Estádio António Coimbra da Mota
All Matchday 9 matchesFull head-to-head
Match facts
Recent form
Last 5 league games, latest on the right
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Estoril | 0.5 | 1.5 |
| Moreirense | 1.0 | 1.9 |
PreviaXI model
- Predicted score
- 1-0
- Expected goals (model)
- 1.49 – 1.07
- Double chance
- 12 · 75%1X 72% · X2 53%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 47%
- Both teams score
- 50%
- Expected corners
- 8.34.9 – 3.4 · Over 9.5: 32%
- Expected cards
- 4.32.1 – 2.2 · Over 3.5: 61%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
Why the model leans towards Estoril
- Power ratings: Estoril -0.28 goals per game (13th of 18 in Primeira Liga), Moreirense -0.46 (16th).
- Estoril's attack (1.24 goals per game) meets Moreirense's defence (1.46 conceded per game).
- Moreirense's attack (1.00) meets Estoril's defence (1.52).
- Home advantage in this competition: home sides score about 17% more goals.
- Put together, the model expects 1.49 – 1.07 goals: Estoril 47%, draw 25%, Moreirense 28%.
Chance to score
Moreirense
- Manuel Ascenção Bebiano Mendonça1 goals in 6 games11%
- Dinis Pinto1 goals in 7 games10%
- A. Duville-Parsemain1 goals in 6 games10%
Model estimate: each player’s season goals per minute compared with his team’s, applied to the model’s expected goals for this match and his usual minutes. Players listed as out are left out.
Trends
- Moreirense are unbeaten in the last 6 meetings with Estoril.
- Estoril have lost their last 3 matches.
- Estoril failed to score in 4 of their last 8 matches.
Season stats
| · | Estoril | Moreirense | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | All | Home | All | Away |
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-2-6 | 0-2-2 | 2-2-4 | 1-1-2 |
| Goals scored per game | 0.50 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.75 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.25 | 1.88 | 1.75 |
| xG per game | 0.92 | 1.01 | 0.73 | 0.54 |
| xG against per game | 1.50 | 1.35 | 1.69 | 1.75 |
| Scored in | 50% | 50% | 62% | 75% |
| Clean sheets | 12% | 25% | 12% | 25% |
| Failed to score | 50% | 50% | 38% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 25% | 62% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 0% | 0% | 50% | 25% |
| Shots per game | 13.0 | 16.0 | 7.9 | 6.2 |
| Shots on target per game | 5.0 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 2.8 |
| Shots on target | 38% | 36% | 35% | 45% |
| Possession | 48% | 55% | 36% | 38% |
| Passes per game | 402.9 | 425.8 | 325.5 | 336.2 |
| Pass accuracy | 78% | – | 69% | – |
| Corners per game | 4.9 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 1.2 |
| Corners against per game | 4.8 | 3.8 | 4.9 | 5.5 |
| Cards per game | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 2.5 |
| Fouls per game | 11.0 | 10.5 | 13.8 | 13.0 |
League matches this season (Primeira Liga). Per-game averages; % = share of matches.
When goals come
Estoril
- 0-150 / 1
- 16-300 / 1
- 31-450 / 2
- 46-601 / 1
- 61-752 / 3
- 76-90+1 / 4
Usual formation: 4-2-3-1
Moreirense
- 0-151 / 1
- 16-305 / 1
- 31-450 / 3
- 46-601 / 3
- 61-750 / 2
- 76-90+2 / 4
Usual formation: 4-2-3-1
Goals scored (green) and conceded (orange) by 15-minute period, league matches this season.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 9 | +17 | 27 |
| 2 |  Benfica | 8 | +17 | 19 |
| 3 |  Sporting CP | 8 | +11 | 18 |
| 4 |  Santa Clara | 8 | +8 | 18 |
| 5 |  Arouca | 9 | +5 | 17 |
| 6 |  Academico Viseu | 8 | +1 | 14 |
| 7 |  GIL Vicente | 9 | +1 | 14 |
| 8 |  Alverca | 9 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 |  SC Braga | 8 | -1 | 11 |
| 10 |  Estrela | 9 | -3 | 10 |
| 11 |  Vitória SC | 9 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 |  Moreirense | 8 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 |  Maritimo | 9 | -10 | 8 |
| 14 |  Famalicao | 8 | -1 | 7 |
| 15 |  Rio Ave | 8 | -9 | 7 |
| 16 |  Casa Pia | 9 | -12 | 7 |
| 17 |  Nacional | 8 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 |  Estoril | 8 | -8 | 2 |
Next matches
Estoril
- Sat 31 OctFC Porto – EstorilPrimeira Liga
- Sun 8 NovEstoril – MaritimoPrimeira Liga
- Sun 29 NovGIL Vicente – EstorilPrimeira Liga
Moreirense
- Sat 31 OctMoreirense – EstrelaPrimeira Liga
- Sat 7 NovSporting CP – MoreirensePrimeira Liga
- Sat 28 NovMoreirense – Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
Head-to-head: last 10 meetings
Estoril 2 wins · 3 draws · Moreirense 5 wins
- 20/04/2026Moreirense1-0EstorilPrimeira Liga
- 07/12/2025Estoril3-3MoreirensePrimeira Liga
- 11/05/2025Moreirense2-2EstorilPrimeira Liga
- 28/12/2024Estoril2-2MoreirensePrimeira Liga
- 18/05/2024Moreirense2-1EstorilPrimeira Liga
- 13/01/2024Estoril1-3MoreirensePrimeira Liga
- 07/05/2022Estoril1-0MoreirensePrimeira Liga
- 28/12/2021Moreirense1-0EstorilPrimeira Liga
- 12/02/2018Moreirense1-2EstorilPrimeira Liga
- 10/09/2017Estoril0-2MoreirensePrimeira Liga
Moreirense travel to Cascais in 12th place with eight points from eight games, comfortably clear of trouble. The hosts are not in that position, and Sunday’s meeting carries far more weight for Estoril.
Estoril’s mounting pressure
Estoril are 18th with two points from eight matches and a goal difference of -8. Four defeats in their last five league games have turned a difficult start into a genuine crisis. At Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, they have collected just two draws and two defeats this season, and they have yet to win a league match at home. Every week without points makes the next game feel bigger.
Form at both ends
Estoril have scored only four goals all season, two of them at home, and have conceded 12. Their attack is the central problem, and the defence has offered little cover. Moreirense have scored eight and conceded 15, so neither side is a model of consistency. The visitors have won once away from home, drawn once and lost twice, and they arrive with a modest but steadier record than the hosts.
Head-to-head
The last five meetings have been tight. Moreirense won 2-1 in May 2024 and 1-0 in April 2026, while the other three ended 2-2, 2-2 and 3-3. Estoril have not won any of those five games, which will add to the sense that they need to break a pattern.
Our prediction
PreviaXI’s model favours Estoril, and the football behind that lean is straightforward: the hosts are likelier to create the better chances at home, even though their finishing has been poor. Moreirense have proved hard to beat in recent meetings, and a tight, physical game looks likely. Estoril’s pressure could produce a narrow home win rather than a flood of goals.
Estoril 1-0 Moreirense
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