Primeira Liga · Matchday 9 Nacional vs SC Braga: Relegation-threatened Nacional Need a Way Out of the Drop Zone
Nacional face SC Braga in Funchal needing points badly, with five straight league defeats and a place in the relegation zone to escape. Braga come in with the stronger record and the recent head-to-head edge.
📍 Estádio da Madeira
All Matchday 9 matchesFull head-to-head
Match facts
Recent form
Last 5 league games, latest on the right
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Nacional | 1.1 | 2.3 |
| SC Braga | 1.1 | 1.3 |
PreviaXI model
- Predicted score
- 0-1
- Expected goals (model)
- 1.04 – 1.73
- Double chance
- 12 · 77%1X 46% · X2 77%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 53%
- Both teams score
- 53%
- Expected corners
- 9.13.4 – 5.7 · Over 9.5: 42%
- Expected cards
- 5.22.8 – 2.4 · Over 3.5: 72%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
Why the model leans towards SC Braga
- Power ratings: Nacional -0.36 goals per game (14th of 18 in Primeira Liga), SC Braga +0.53 (4th).
- Nacional's attack (1.18 goals per game) meets SC Braga's defence (1.07 conceded per game).
- SC Braga's attack (1.60) meets Nacional's defence (1.54).
- Home advantage in this competition: home sides score about 17% more goals.
- Put together, the model expects 1.04 – 1.73 goals: Nacional 23%, draw 23%, SC Braga 54%.
Chance to score
Nacional
- Liziero1 goals in 4 games12%
- Léo Santos1 goals in 5 games10%
- Wesley Gasolina1 goals in 7 games8%
SC Braga
- Pau Victor5 goals in 16 games34%
- Gabri Martínez2 goals in 9 games19%
- Fran Navarro1 goals in 12 games8%
Model estimate: each player’s season goals per minute compared with his team’s, applied to the model’s expected goals for this match and his usual minutes. Players listed as out are left out.
Trends
- Nacional have lost their last 6 matches.
Season stats
| · | Nacional | SC Braga | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | All | Home | All | Away |
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-1-6 | 1-0-3 | 3-2-3 | 1-2-1 |
| Goals scored per game | 1.12 | 1.25 | 1.12 | 1.25 |
| Goals conceded per game | 2.25 | 2.50 | 1.25 | 1.25 |
| xG per game | 1.15 | 1.57 | 1.29 | 1.18 |
| xG against per game | 1.89 | 1.39 | 0.83 | 0.73 |
| Scored in | 62% | 75% | 88% | 75% |
| Clean sheets | 12% | 25% | 38% | 25% |
| Failed to score | 38% | 25% | 12% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 62% | 75% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 88% | 100% | 62% | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 75% | 62% | 75% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 62% | 75% | 25% | 25% |
| Shots per game | 10.9 | 13.8 | 13.6 | 11.5 |
| Shots on target per game | 3.1 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 3.8 |
| Shots on target | 28% | 25% | 33% | 33% |
| Possession | 50% | 56% | 59% | 62% |
| Passes per game | 406.1 | 455.5 | 575.8 | 594.5 |
| Pass accuracy | 83% | 85% | – | – |
| Corners per game | 4.4 | 5.0 | 4.1 | 4.5 |
| Corners against per game | 4.8 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 4.0 |
| Cards per game | 1.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.5 |
| Fouls per game | 11.1 | 10.8 | 13.2 | 15.5 |
League matches this season (Primeira Liga). Per-game averages; % = share of matches.
When goals come
Nacional
- 0-151 / 3
- 16-300 / 2
- 31-453 / 7
- 46-601 / 2
- 61-752 / 3
- 76-90+2 / 1
Usual formation: 3-4-2-1
SC Braga
- 0-152 / 1
- 16-300 / 1
- 31-451 / 2
- 46-603 / 2
- 61-753 / 1
- 76-90+2 / 2
Usual formation: 3-4-3
Goals scored (green) and conceded (orange) by 15-minute period, league matches this season.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 9 | +17 | 27 |
| 2 |  Benfica | 8 | +17 | 19 |
| 3 |  Sporting CP | 8 | +11 | 18 |
| 4 |  Santa Clara | 8 | +8 | 18 |
| 5 |  Arouca | 9 | +5 | 17 |
| 6 |  Academico Viseu | 8 | +1 | 14 |
| 7 |  GIL Vicente | 9 | +1 | 14 |
| 8 |  Alverca | 9 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 |  SC Braga | 8 | -1 | 11 |
| 10 |  Estrela | 9 | -3 | 10 |
| 11 |  Vitória SC | 9 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 |  Moreirense | 8 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 |  Maritimo | 9 | -10 | 8 |
| 14 |  Famalicao | 8 | -1 | 7 |
| 15 |  Rio Ave | 8 | -9 | 7 |
| 16 |  Casa Pia | 9 | -12 | 7 |
| 17 |  Nacional | 8 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 |  Estoril | 8 | -8 | 2 |
Next matches
Nacional
- Sun 1 NovArouca – NacionalPrimeira Liga
- Sat 7 NovNacional – Academico ViseuPrimeira Liga
- Fri 27 NovMaritimo – NacionalPrimeira Liga
SC Braga
- Thu 29 OctSC Braga – Famalicao
- Sun 1 NovSC Braga – FamalicaoPrimeira Liga
- Thu 5 NovAarhus – SC BragaUEFA Europa Conference League
Head-to-head: last 10 meetings
Nacional 1 wins · 1 draws · SC Braga 8 wins
- 28/02/2026Nacional1-2SC BragaPrimeira Liga
- 23/11/2025SC Braga4-2NacionalTaça de Portugal
- 28/09/2025SC Braga0-1NacionalPrimeira Liga
- 21/02/2025SC Braga1-0NacionalPrimeira Liga
- 20/09/2024Nacional0-3SC BragaPrimeira Liga
- 22/12/2023Nacional1-3SC BragaTaça da Liga
- 25/04/2023SC Braga2-2NacionalTaça de Portugal
- 12/04/2023Nacional0-5SC BragaTaça de Portugal
- 28/02/2021Nacional1-2SC BragaPrimeira Liga
- 17/10/2020SC Braga2-1NacionalPrimeira Liga
Nacional need more than a result on Sunday. They are 16th in the Primeira Liga and must stop a slide that has left them desperate to climb out of the relegation zone.
A relegation fight that cannot wait
Nacional have four points from eight matches and a goal difference of -9, sitting 16th in an 18-team division. Braga, ninth with 11 points, are comfortably clear of trouble. For the Madeira side, every home game at the Estádio da Madeira in Funchal carries extra weight, and this is a chance to start putting daylight between themselves and the bottom three.
Five defeats and a leaky defence
Nacional have lost five league matches in a row. Over their last five games they have scored five times and conceded 15, and at home they have won once in four. Their defence has been the central problem all season: 18 goals conceded in eight games, with just one clean sheet.
Braga have been far more solid away from home. They have won three and drawn two of their eight away fixtures, scoring nine times on the road. Their recent league results read LLDWL, and they have shown they can grind out results when the pressure builds.
Braga’s grip on the fixture
Braga have won four of the last five meetings between the sides. The only Nacional victory in that run came in a 1-0 win in September 2025. The most recent match, in February 2026, ended 1-2 in Braga’s favour. Braga also beat Nacional 4-2 in the Taça de Portugal in November 2025, so the Minho side have enjoyed the upper hand in recent meetings.
Our prediction
PreviaXI’s model favours Braga, and the reasoning is easy to follow. Braga have been the more reliable side away from home and have the stronger record against Nacional in recent meetings, while Nacional’s defence has repeatedly struggled to keep opponents out. A tight, physical game looks likely, and one goal may be enough for the visitors to take all three points.
Nacional 0-1 SC Braga
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