Primeira Liga · Matchday 9 
Our pick1–0Missed
Estrela vs Casa Pia: Bottom-three misery meets a side hunting its first real lift
Estrela have only one win in their last five and Casa Pia sit 17th, so this Amadora clash matters most to the visitors, who are searching for a way out of the relegation zone.
📍 Estadio Jose Gomes
Match report
Casa Pia won 2-0 away to Estrela in round 9 of the Primeira Liga Regular Season. The visitors opened the scoring in the 31st minute through João Rego, assisted by Mohamed Salah El Boukammiri. Lawrence Ofori added a second in the 90+2nd minute, set up by Henrique Araújo. No red cards were shown.
Estrela enjoyed 63% of the possession and had 18 shots to Casa Pia's 10, with an expected goals figure of 1.72 against 0.81. Casa Pia's goalkeeper made 6 saves compared with 2 for the home side, and L. Ofori was the top-rated player with 8.2. Before kickoff, the PreviaXI model had Estrela as the most likely winner at 51%, with a predicted score of 1-0, against 24% for a draw and 25% for Casa Pia.
Goals
- 31'João Rego · Mohamed Salah El Boukammiri · Casa Pia
- 90+2'Lawrence Ofori · Henrique Araújo · Casa Pia
Cards
- 68'Patrick Sequeira · Casa Pia
- 90+4'Jefferson Encada · Estrela
- 90+4'Pedro Rosas · Casa Pia
Match stats
⭐ Top-rated player: L. Ofori (Casa Pia) 8.2
Ratings and statistics: API-Football.
Confirmed lineups
Estrela · 4-5-1
- 24Léo LinckG
- 21M. ScholzeD
- 30Patrick LuanD
- 5S. LekovićD
- 55Rafa SoaresD
- 99A. MarcusM
- 14L. ZvonarekM
- 78Santiago SerraM
- 39Eddy DoueM
- 10I. StoicaM
- 37L. AntonettiF
Coach: Pepa
Casa Pia · 4-2-3-1
- 1P. SequeiraG
- 18GeraldesD
- 3KalyD
- 43David SousaD
- 75Pedro RosasD
- 80L. OforiM
- 24S. PérezM
- 11M. El BoukammiriM
- 70João Pedro Seno Luís RêgoM
- 77B. PauwelsM
- 90CassianoF
Coach: Filipe Coelho
Match facts
Recent form
Last 5 league games, latest on the right
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Estrela | 1.8 | 1.9 |
| Casa Pia | 0.4 | 2.1 |
League position
| Pos | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Estrela | 8 | -1 | 10 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 8 | -14 | 4 |
Last meetings
- 2026Estrela1-2Casa Pia
- 2026Estrela4-0Casa Pia
- 2025Casa Pia3-5Estrela
- 2025Casa Pia1-0Estrela
- 2024Estrela0-1Casa Pia
PreviaXI model
- Predicted score
- 1-0
- Expected goals (model)
- 1.60 – 1.04
- Double chance
- 12 · 76%1X 75% · X2 49%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 49%
- Both teams score
- 51%
- Expected corners
- 9.65.0 – 4.6 · Over 9.5: 48%
- Expected cards
- 5.52.5 – 3.0 · Over 3.5: 76%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
Estrela have won only once in their last five league matches, and that record has pulled them into a tight middle-table scrap. Still, they arrive as the stronger side on paper and are ten points clear of their visitors.
Casa Pia’s fight to climb out
Casa Pia are the real story. They sit 17th of 18 with four points from eight games and a goal difference of -14. Their season has been a grind: three goals scored in eight matches, and only one win and one draw. Every point matters, and a trip to Amadora offers a chance to close the gap on the teams above them.
Form
Estrela have scored seven and conceded nine in their last five games, a pattern of open, unsettled football. At home they have collected a win, two draws and a defeat, and their eight-game tally shows 14 goals scored.
Casa Pia’s problem is defending. They have conceded 13 goals in four home matches and have lost their last two outings, a run that has pushed them to the bottom of the table. Their away form has been more resilient, with one win and one draw in four.
Head-to-head
The recent meetings have been tight. Casa Pia won 1-0 in Amadora in February 2025 and 1-0 in the reverse fixture a year earlier, while Estrela recorded a 5-3 win in November 2025 and a 4-0 victory in March 2026. A July 2026 friendly ended 2-1 to Casa Pia.
Our prediction
PreviaXI’s model favours Estrela, and the logic is clear. Estrela have scored more and have the better home record, while Casa Pia’s leaky defence has struggled badly on the road and at home. Expect a cautious, physical contest in which the home side’s greater threat should be enough to edge it, though Casa Pia will have chances to make it tense.
Estrela 1-0 Casa Pia
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