Alverca Chase a Fourth Straight Win Against Arouca

Alverca beat Arouca 2-1 at home in April, and the two sides meet again on Saturday with the hosts riding their longest winning run of the season. The question is whether they can make it four.

A winning run against a side in the top five

Alverca sit eighth in the 18-team Primeira Liga with 11 points from eight matches. Arouca are fifth with 14 points and a goal difference of +4, against Alverca’s +1. The gap is only three points, so a win would move the hosts closer to the group of teams above them.

Three wins, but the home record needs work

Alverca’s season form ends with three consecutive victories, and they have scored 10 goals in their last five games while conceding five. Yet their home form tells a more mixed story: one win, two draws and one defeat in four matches at the Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca.

Arouca have been more consistent away from home, with a win, two draws and a single defeat in four trips. They have scored 11 goals in total and conceded seven, and their most recent results read W, D, L, D, W.

Head-to-head

The rivalry has been tight. In December, Arouca won 1-0 on their own ground, and in April Alverca returned the favour with a 2-1 win at home. Each side has taken the points at the other’s stadium, so neither has an obvious edge.

Our prediction

PreviaXI’s model favours Alverca, but only narrowly, and this looks like a tight, closely fought match rather than a open goal-fest. Alverca’s attack has been the more productive of the two over recent weeks, and their momentum should help them on home turf. Arouca are capable of frustrating them, so a narrow margin is the most likely outcome.

Alverca 1-0 Arouca