Major League Soccer · Matchday 33 
Our pick2–1Missed
St. Louis City under pressure to halt their slide against San Diego
Three straight defeats have increased the pressure on St. Louis City, despite their third-place position in the Western Conference. San Diego arrive with defensive problems of their own, but have won the last two meetings.
📍 Citypark
Preview written:
All Matchday 33 matchesFull head-to-head
Match report
San Diego secured a 1-0 win away to St. Louis City. The decisive goal came in the 39th minute, when Anders Dreyer scored for San Diego with an assist from Alejandro Alvarado Jr. No red cards were recorded.
St. Louis City had more possession, 60% to 40%, and led 16-13 in total shots and 7-2 in shots on target. San Diego had the higher number of corners, 4-3, while the xG was 1.39 for St. Louis City and 0.81 for San Diego. San Diego’s P. Sisniega was the top-rated player, with an 8.3 rating. The 0-1 result differed from the pre-match model’s 2-1 prediction, which gave St. Louis City a 49% chance of winning, a 23% chance of a draw and San Diego a 28% chance.
Goals
- 39'Anders Dreyer · Alejandro Alvarado Jr · San Diego
Cards
- 56'Alejandro Alvarado Jr · San Diego
- 74'Lukas MacNaughton · St. Louis City
- 87'Carlo Holse · St. Louis City
Match stats
⭐ Top-rated player: P. Sisniega (San Diego) 8.3
Ratings and statistics: API-Football.
Confirmed lineups
St. Louis City · 3-4-1-2
- 39B. LundtG
- 5L. MacNaughtonD
- 32T. BaumgartlD
- 21D. PolvaraD
- 6C. WallemM
- 8C. DurkinM
- 24D. EdelmanM
- 14T. TotlandM
- 19C. HolseF
- 9Rafael NavarroF
- 77Jeong Sang-BinF
Coach: Y. Damet
San Diego · 4-3-3
- 13P. SisniegaG
- 3D. ÞórhallssonD
- 97C. McVeyD
- 32I. MurphyD
- 5Kieran SargeantD
- 70A. AlvaradoM
- 15P. SomaM
- 8O. ValakariM
- 10A. DreyerF
- 7M. IngvartsenF
- 14B. B. ZambleF
Coach: Mikey Varas
Match facts
Recent form
Last 5 league games, latest on the right
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| St. Louis City | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| San Diego | 1.8 | 1.9 |
League position
| Pos | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | St. Louis City | 32 | +11 | 51 |
| 13 | San Diego | 32 | -6 | 35 |
Last meetings
- 2026San Diego2-0St. Louis City
- 2025St. Louis City1-2San Diego
- 2025San Diego0-0St. Louis City
Absences
St. Louis City
- OutR. Burki · Concussion
- OutCelio Pompeu · Knee Injury
- OutA. Matan · Leg Injury
San Diego
- OutE. Achouri · Lower-Body Injury
PreviaXI model
Model confidence: Medium
- Predicted score
- 2-1
- Expected goals (model)
- 1.96 – 1.45
- Double chance
- 12 · 77%1X 72% · X2 51%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 66%Over 1.5: 86% · Over 3.5: 44%
- Both teams score
- 66%
- Clean sheet
- 23% – 14%St. Louis City–San Diego
- Half-time result
- 1 · 39%X 36% · 2 25%
- Half-time / full-time
- 1/1 · 31%2/2 17% · X/1 15%
- Expected corners
- 8.94.4 – 4.5 · Over 9.5: 40%
- Expected cards
- 4.52.3 – 2.2 · Over 3.5: 65%
- Most likely scores
- 1-110%
- 2-19%
- 1-27%
- 2-27%
- 2-06%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
Pressure despite a strong position
St. Louis City’s third-place standing in the Western Conference offers little comfort after three consecutive defeats. With 51 points from 32 matches, they remain well ahead of San Diego, who sit 13th on 35 points, but another setback at Citypark would deepen the focus on their late-season slide.
San Diego have their own reasons to seek a response. They have lost three of their last five and conceded 15 goals across that stretch. The visitors are six points clear of the bottom of the 15-team conference, while St. Louis City will be eager to turn their home advantage into a result and steady their form.
Goals and goals conceded
St. Louis City’s recent five-match return has been mixed: 10 goals scored, but 11 conceded. Their home-season record is more encouraging, with nine wins in 16 matches and 36 goals scored.
San Diego have scored nine times in their last five, yet their 15 goals conceded underline the defensive challenge they face. Away from home this season, they have won twice in 16 outings and let in 33 goals. Both sides have shown they can score, but neither arrives with a settled defensive record.
San Diego have had the recent edge
The most recent meeting ended 2-0 to San Diego in March 2026. They also won 2-1 at St. Louis City in May 2025, while the other listed encounter finished 0-0. That history gives the visitors a psychological boost, though St. Louis City’s stronger home record offers a clear reason to expect a closer contest this time.
Absences to manage
St. Louis City are without R. Bürki through concussion, Celio Pompeu with a knee injury and A. Matan with a leg injury. San Diego are missing E. Achouri with a lower-body injury. Bürki’s absence is especially notable as St. Louis City look to shore up a defence that has conceded 11 times in five matches.
Home hopes rest on response
St. Louis City have scored 36 goals at home this season, compared with 22 away, and will need that attacking strength to show through under pressure. San Diego’s defensive record on the road gives the hosts an opening, although their recent head-to-head results warn against taking the visitors lightly.
Our prediction
St. Louis City’s stronger home results and San Diego’s heavy recent concession rate point towards a narrow home win. PreviaXI’s model also favours the hosts, while the visitors’ recent scoring suggests they can still find a goal.
St. Louis City 2-1 San Diego
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