Major League Soccer · Matchday 33 
Our pick1–0Missed
CF Montreal seek a standings lift against New York City FC
CF Montreal head to Citi Field looking to improve their position in the Eastern Conference after a difficult run. New York City FC have the stronger recent form and home scoring record.
📍 Citi Field
Preview written:
All Matchday 33 matchesFull head-to-head
Match report
New York City FC and CF Montreal drew 1-1. Andrés Perea put New York City FC ahead in the 41st minute, assisted by Nicolás Fernández Mercau. The home side held that lead until stoppage time, when Daniel Rios scored for CF Montreal in the 90+1st minute to secure a share of the points. There were no red cards.
New York City FC had the edge in several attacking measures, recording 12 shots to CF Montreal’s 10 and four shots on target to two. The hosts also led expected goals, 1.23 to 0.68, while possession was 53% to 47%. CF Montreal’s D. Ríos was the top-rated player, with a rating of 8.1. The 1-1 draw differed from the pre-match model’s predicted 1-0 home win, with probabilities of 54% for a home win, 25% for a draw and 21% for an away win.
Goals
- 41'Andrés Perea · Nicolás Fernández Mercau · New York City FC
- 90+1'Daniel Rios · CF Montreal
Cards
- 23'Kevin O'Toole · New York City FC
- 29'Alexis Sanchez · CF Montreal
- 38'Daniel Pereira · CF Montreal
- 47'Olger Escobar · CF Montreal
- 52'Jonathan Shore · New York City FC
- 55'Talles Magno · New York City FC
- 73'Viktor Radojević · CF Montreal
- 90'Fabian Herbers · CF Montreal
Match stats
⭐ Top-rated player: D. Ríos (CF Montreal) 8.1
Ratings and statistics: API-Football.
Confirmed lineups
New York City FC · 4-3-3
- 49M. FreeseG
- 24T. GrayD
- 13Thiago MartinsD
- 6J. SandsD
- 22K. O'TooleD
- 7N. Fernández MercauM
- 32J. ShoreM
- 8A. PereaM
- 26A. OjedaF
- 11Talles MagnoF
- 9B. TraoréF
Coach: P. Jansen
CF Montreal · 4-2-3-1
- 41S. KeitaG
- 27D. BugajD
- 5B. CraigD
- 4B. VeraD
- 28V. RadojevićD
- 6S. PietteM
- 7D. PereiraM
- 18H. SynchukM
- 29O. EscobarM
- 16W. CarmonaM
- 10A. SánchezF
Coach: Philippe Eullaffroy
Match facts
Recent form
Last 5 league games, latest on the right
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| New York City FC | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| CF Montreal | 1.1 | 2.1 |
League position
| Pos | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | New York City FC | 32 | +3 | 38 |
| 15 | CF Montreal | 32 | -30 | 25 |
Last meetings
- 2026CF Montreal1-0New York City FC
- 2025CF Montreal1-0New York City FC
- 2025New York City FC0-1CF Montreal
- 2024CF Montreal2-0New York City FC
- 2024New York City FC2-0CF Montreal
Absences
New York City FC
- OutD. Baiera · Knee Injury
- OutA. Farnos · Leg Injury
- OutM. Moralez · Knee Injury
- OutK. Trewin · Ankle Injury
CF Montreal
- OutB. Ceballos · Lower-Body Injury
- OutT. Gillier · Upper-Body Injury
- OutB. Hidalgo · Groin Injury
- DoubtfulJ. Neal · Lower-Body Injury
- DoubtfulP. Owusu · Lower-Body Injury
PreviaXI model
Model confidence: Medium
- Predicted score
- 1-0
- Expected goals (model)
- 1.70 – 0.95
- Double chance
- 1X · 79%12 75% · X2 46%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 49%Over 1.5: 75% · Over 3.5: 28%
- Both teams score
- 51%
- Clean sheet
- 39% – 18%New York City FC–CF Montreal
- Half-time result
- X · 41%1 40% · 2 19%
- Half-time / full-time
- 1/1 · 34%X/1 18% · X/X 15%
- Expected corners
- 9.34.8 – 4.5 · Over 9.5: 45%
- Expected cards
- 4.51.8 – 2.7 · Over 3.5: 65%
- Most likely scores
- 1-112%
- 1-012%
- 2-010%
- 2-110%
- 0-08%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
Montreal need a standings lift
CF Montreal travel to Citi Field on Saturday needing points to climb the Eastern Conference standings. They sit 15th with 25 points from 32 matches, while New York City FC are 12th on 38 points. Both have played the same number of games, and Montreal’s route upward begins with improving on a run of five matches without a win.
New York City FC will look to make home advantage count. They have scored 29 goals in 16 home league games, compared with 18 in 16 away, and their season record stands at nine wins, 11 draws and 12 defeats.
Recent form favours New York
The contrast in recent results is stark. New York City FC have taken six goals from their last five matches, though they have conceded eight and won only once in that spell. Montreal have scored twice and conceded 12 across their last five, losing four and drawing one.
Montreal’s away defensive record adds to the challenge: they have let in 43 goals in 16 road matches this season. New York have also had an uneven campaign, but their home scoring output gives them a clearer platform for this fixture.
Montreal own the recent edge
The last five meetings have all gone Montreal’s way, including a 1-0 win over New York in April. Montreal also recorded three other 1-0 victories in that sequence, while New York’s sole win was a 2-0 result in July 2024. That history offers the visitors encouragement, even as their current form points the other way.
Absences on both sides
New York City FC are without D. Baiera, A. Farnos, M. Moralez and K. Trewin, each listed as missing through injury. Montreal’s absentees are B. Ceballos, T. Gillier and B. Hidalgo; J. Neal and P. Owusu are questionable, all with lower-body injuries except where noted.
The home attack is the key
New York’s 29 home goals make their attacking production a central factor, while Montreal’s 43 goals conceded away from home highlight the defensive test facing the visitors. Montreal will hope their recent head-to-head success can help them counter that imbalance.
Our prediction
Montreal’s past results against New York make this less straightforward than the standings and recent form suggest. Still, New York’s stronger home scoring and Montreal’s heavy away concessions point to a narrow home victory; PreviaXI’s model also favours the hosts.
New York City FC 1-0 CF Montreal
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