Major League Soccer · Matchday 33 
Our pick2–1Correct result
Orlando’s unbeaten Charlotte run faces a home test
Orlando City SC have avoided defeat in their last five meetings with Charlotte, winning twice and drawing three. But Charlotte’s home scoring record and higher Eastern Conference position make this a stern test.
📍 Bank of America Stadium
Preview written: · Updated after team news:
All Matchday 33 matchesFull head-to-head
Match report
Charlotte earned a 4-0 win over Orlando City SC. Henry Kessler opened the scoring in the sixth minute, assisted by Ashley Westwood. Allan Saint-Maximin made it 2-0 in the 49th minute, with Harry Toffolo providing the assist, and Abdoulaye Doucouré added a third in the 84th. Saint-Maximin was sent off in the 89th minute. Rodolfo Aloko completed the scoring in the 90+4th minute, assisted by Tyger Smalls.
Orlando City SC had more possession, 56% to 44%, and more shots on target, 8 to 6, while Charlotte led total shots 16-15. Charlotte also had the higher expected goals figure, 2.34 to 0.90. K. Kahlina of Charlotte was the top-rated player, with a rating of 8.9. The result was more decisive than the pre-match model’s 2-1 Charlotte prediction, which gave the home side a 49% win chance, a 21% draw chance and Orlando City SC a 30% win chance.
Goals
- 6'Henry Kessler · Ashley Westwood · Charlotte
- 49'Allan Saint-Maximin · Harry Toffolo · Charlotte
- 84'Abdoulaye Doucouré · Charlotte
- 90+4'Rodolfo Aloko · Tyger Smalls · Charlotte
Cards
- 25'Iago Teodoro · Orlando City SC
- 61'Ashley Westwood · Charlotte
- 82'Iván Angulo · Orlando City SC
- 89'Allan Saint-Maximin · Charlotte
- 90+3'Tyger Smalls · Charlotte
Match stats
⭐ Top-rated player: K. Kahlina (Charlotte) 8.9
Ratings and statistics: API-Football.
Confirmed lineups
Charlotte · 4-2-3-1
- 1K. KahlinaG
- 14N. ByrneD
- 44M. AgyemangD
- 22H. KesslerD
- 15H. ToffoloD
- 8A. WestwoodM
- 28D. DianiM
- 11L. AbadaM
- 16Pep BielM
- 10A. Saint-MaximinM
- 9I. Toklomati GiornoF
Coach: D. Smith
Orlando City SC · 4-4-2
- 71M. CrépeauG
- 19Z. TaifiD
- 16W. CartagenaD
- 57IagoD
- 27Vinícius NogueiraD
- 87Marco PasalicM
- 8B. OjedaM
- 5Luis OtávioM
- 77I. AnguloM
- 7A. GriezmannF
- 10M. OjedaF
Coach: M. Perelman
Match facts
Recent form
Last 5 league games, latest on the right
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Charlotte | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| Orlando City SC | 1.9 | 2.3 |
League position
| Pos | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Charlotte | 32 | +11 | 50 |
| 7 | Orlando City SC | 32 | -12 | 43 |
Last meetings
- 2026Orlando City SC4-1Charlotte
- 2025Charlotte2-2Orlando City SC
- 2025Orlando City SC3-1Charlotte
- 2024Orlando City SC1-1Charlotte
- 2024Charlotte0-0Orlando City SC
Absences
Charlotte
- OutN. Berchimas · Foot Injury
- OutA. Goodwin · Foot Injury
- OutA. John · Shoulder Injury
- DoubtfulB. Bronico · Groin Injury
- DoubtfulW. Cleary · Illness
- DoubtfulT. Ream · Achilles Tendon Injury
- DoubtfulA. Saint-Maximin · Leg Injury
Orlando City SC
- OutD. Brekalo · Yellow Cards
- OutR. Jansson · Foot Injury
- OutT. Spicer · Foot Injury
- DoubtfulG. Dorsey · Back Injury
PreviaXI model
Model confidence: Medium
- Predicted score
- 2-1
- Expected goals (model)
- 2.16 – 1.66
- Double chance
- 12 · 79%1X 70% · X2 51%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 73%Over 1.5: 90% · Over 3.5: 53%
- Both teams score
- 72%
- Clean sheet
- 19% – 12%Charlotte–Orlando City SC
- Half-time result
- 1 · 39%X 34% · 2 27%
- Half-time / full-time
- 1/1 · 31%2/2 18% · X/1 14%
- Expected corners
- 10.76.1 – 4.6 · Over 9.5: 62%
- Expected cards
- 4.71.9 – 2.8 · Over 3.5: 69%
- Most likely scores
- 2-18%
- 1-18%
- 2-27%
- 1-27%
- 3-16%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
Charlotte have more ground to protect
Orlando City SC are unbeaten in their last five meetings with Charlotte, a run that frames Saturday’s Eastern Conference clash. Charlotte sit fifth on 50 points, seven ahead of seventh-placed Orlando, with both clubs having played 32 matches. With the regular season nearing its end, the standings give the home side more immediate ground to protect.
Goals on both sides
Both teams have found the net regularly in recent weeks: Charlotte scored 12 goals across their last five matches, while Orlando struck 14. Each also conceded 10 in that span, suggesting neither arrives with a watertight defence.
Charlotte’s home record offers a counterweight to Orlando’s recent attacking output. They have scored 33 goals in 16 home games and conceded 16, compared with Orlando’s 30 goals scored and 52 conceded across 16 away fixtures. Orlando have scored 62 times overall this season, but their away defensive record has been a clear vulnerability.
Orlando’s five-match unbeaten run
The recent head-to-head sequence belongs to Orlando. They won 4-1 at home in April and 3-1 in May 2025, while the other three encounters ended in draws: 2-2, 1-1 and 0-0. Charlotte have not beaten Orlando in any of those five meetings.
That history points to a difficult matchup for the home side, though the latest meeting was at Orlando’s ground. This time Charlotte have the advantage of playing at Bank of America Stadium, where their season scoring figures are stronger.
Several absences in both squads
Charlotte will be without N. Berchimas and A. Goodwin, both listed with foot injuries, and A. John, who has a shoulder injury. B. Bronico, W. Cleary, T. Ream and A. Saint-Maximin are questionable.
Orlando are missing D. Brekalo through suspension after yellow cards, as well as R. Jansson and T. Spicer with foot injuries. G. Dorsey is questionable with a back injury.
Charlotte’s home attack against Orlando’s firepower
Charlotte’s 33 goals at home make their attack a major factor, while Orlando’s 14 goals in their last five underline the visitors’ threat. Orlando’s record in this fixture gives them a reason to believe, but their heavy concession count away from home leaves room for Charlotte to exploit.
Our prediction
PreviaXI’s model favours Charlotte, with the home side’s stronger home scoring and Orlando’s defensive record on the road pointing towards a narrow victory. Orlando’s recent head-to-head resilience should keep the contest close, and both teams have shown they can score.
Charlotte 2-1 Orlando City SC
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