Major League Soccer · Matchday 33 
Our pick1–2Missed
Philadelphia’s recent dominance sets up key Cincinnati test
Philadelphia have won three of the last four meetings, including a 5-0 victory in September. With both sides chasing ground in the Eastern Conference, Cincinnati will look to make home advantage count.
📍 TQL Stadium
Preview written: · Updated after team news:
All Matchday 33 matchesFull head-to-head
Match report
FC Cincinnati beat Philadelphia Union 1-0, with the only goal arriving in the 70th minute. Ayoub Jabbari scored for FC Cincinnati; no assist was listed. Philadelphia Union could not find an equaliser, and neither side received a red card.
The statistics were close on expected goals, with FC Cincinnati at 1.1 and Philadelphia Union at 1.14, but Philadelphia Union had more shots on target, 6 to 2, and more total shots, 15 to 7. R. Celentano of FC Cincinnati was the top-rated player, with an 8.0 rating. The 1-0 result differed from the pre-match model’s predicted 1-2, which gave Philadelphia Union a 41% chance of winning, FC Cincinnati 35%, and a draw 24%.
Goals
- 70'Ayoub Jabbari · FC Cincinnati
Match stats
⭐ Top-rated player: R. Celentano (FC Cincinnati) 8
Ratings and statistics: API-Football.
Confirmed lineups
FC Cincinnati · 3-4-1-2
- 18R. CelentanoG
- 24K. SmithD
- 4N. HagglundD
- 15T. HadebeD
- 17K. Mboma DemM
- 11S. GidiM
- 5O. NwobodoM
- 29Bryan Josías Ramírez LeónM
- 20P. BuchaM
- 16T. BarlowF
- 9K. DenkeyF
Coach: Pat Noonan
Philadelphia Union · 4-4-2
- 18A. BlakeG
- 39F. WestfieldD
- 44Neil PierreD
- 26N. HarrielD
- 27K. WagnerD
- 33Q. SullivanM
- 19I. VassilevM
- 4J. LukićM
- 16B. BenderM
- 23E. AlladohF
- 9B. DamianiF
Coach: Ryan Richter
Match facts
Recent form
Last 5 league games, latest on the right
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| FC Cincinnati | 2.1 | 2.3 |
| Philadelphia Union | 1.9 | 1.6 |
League position
| Pos | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Philadelphia Union | 32 | +12 | 47 |
| 8 | FC Cincinnati | 32 | -7 | 43 |
Last meetings
- 2026Philadelphia Union5-0FC Cincinnati
- 2025FC Cincinnati0-1Philadelphia Union
- 2025Philadelphia Union4-1FC Cincinnati
- 2025FC Cincinnati4-1Philadelphia Union
- 2024Philadelphia Union1-2FC Cincinnati
Absences
FC Cincinnati
- OutJ. Malatini · Thigh Injury
- OutM. Robinson · Leg Injury
- DoubtfulE. Echenique · Leg Injury
- DoubtfulT. Malacia · Ankle Injury
Philadelphia Union
- OutJ. Bueno · Hamstring Injury
- OutM. Iloski · Muscle Injury
- OutD. Jean Jacques · Yellow Cards
- OutC. Sullivan · Ankle Injury
PreviaXI model
Model confidence: Open game
- Predicted score
- 1-2
- Expected goals (model)
- 1.59 – 1.75
- Double chance
- 12 · 76%1X 59% · X2 65%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 65%Over 1.5: 85% · Over 3.5: 43%
- Both teams score
- 66%
- Clean sheet
- 17% – 20%FC Cincinnati–Philadelphia Union
- Half-time result
- X · 37%1 30% · 2 33%
- Half-time / full-time
- 2/2 · 25%1/1 21% · X/2 13%
- Expected corners
- 9.94.3 – 5.6 · Over 9.5: 52%
- Expected cards
- 4.72.4 – 2.3 · Over 3.5: 69%
- Most likely scores
- 1-110%
- 1-29%
- 2-18%
- 2-27%
- 0-16%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
A narrow gap in the East
Philadelphia Union arrive sixth in the Eastern Conference with 47 points from 32 matches, four points ahead of eighth-placed FC Cincinnati. With both clubs on 32 games played, this meeting offers Cincinnati a chance to close the gap, while Philadelphia can strengthen its position above them.
Cincinnati’s home threat, Union’s steadier defence
Cincinnati’s recent record is mixed: two wins, a draw and two defeats in their last five. They have scored eight and conceded eight across that spell. Their home scoring record is a notable strength, with 38 goals in 15 league games at TQL Stadium.
Philadelphia have also scored eight in their last five, but conceded six. Their overall defensive record is stronger, with 50 goals against across 32 matches compared with Cincinnati’s 73. The Union have taken 13 wins this season, two more than Cincinnati, and have collected six victories in 16 away league games.
Recent meetings favour Philadelphia
The latest encounter was emphatic: Philadelphia beat Cincinnati 5-0 on September 9. That result extended a run in which the Union have won three of the last four meetings, including 1-0 away in August 2025 and 4-1 at home in March 2025.
Cincinnati’s clearest recent answer came in October 2024, when they won 2-1 in Philadelphia. The sequence points to a difficult matchup for Cincinnati, even if the home side has shown it can hurt the Union.
Several absences on both sides
Cincinnati will be without J. Malatini and M. Robinson, while E. Echenique and T. Malacia are listed as questionable. Philadelphia are missing J. Bueno, M. Iloski, D. Jean Jacques and C. Sullivan.
Late goals could matter
Cincinnati have scored 24 of their 66 league goals in the 76th minute or later, making their threat late in matches worth watching. Philadelphia’s scoring has been more spread across the game, with 17 goals between minutes 61 and 75. The Union’s recent defensive numbers give them a platform, but Cincinnati’s home attack could keep the contest open.
Our prediction
PreviaXI’s model leans towards Philadelphia, whose stronger season-long defence and recent head-to-head record offer a persuasive edge. Cincinnati’s home scoring gives them a route to a goal, but the Union look better placed to take the points.
FC Cincinnati 1-2 Philadelphia Union
⚑ Report a mistakeEditorial policy
Major League Soccer table All previews that day
More Major League Soccer previews
Major League Soccer 
Columbus Crew 
DC United Our pick1–0Correct result
DC United arrive in Columbus after four straight defeats, and their latest meeting with the Crew ended in a 2-1 win. Columbus, meanwhile, have won four of their last five.
Read preview Major League Soccer 
New York City FC 
CF Montreal Our pick1–0Missed
CF Montreal head to Citi Field looking to improve their position in the Eastern Conference after a difficult run. New York City FC have the stronger recent form and home scoring record.
Read preview Major League Soccer 
Charlotte 
Orlando City SC Our pick2–1Correct result
Orlando City SC have avoided defeat in their last five meetings with Charlotte, winning twice and drawing three. But Charlotte’s home scoring record and higher Eastern Conference position make this a stern test.
Read preview Major League Soccer 
Sporting Kansas City 
FC Dallas Our pick1–2Missed
Sporting Kansas City’s 4-3 defeat to FC Dallas in September extended a run of poor results that has left them bottom of the Western Conference. Dallas return in stronger form, sitting second after 32 matches.
Read preview