Major League Soccer · Matchday 33 
Our pick2–1Exact score
Real Salt Lake’s winning run faces a San Jose test
Real Salt Lake have won three in a row and arrive with the stronger recent form, but San Jose have home advantage and the statistical edge. The hosts will look to turn their Western Conference position into a response to a run of draws.
📍 Avaya Stadium
Preview written:
All Matchday 33 matchesFull head-to-head
Match report
San Jose Earthquakes secured a 2-1 win over Real Salt Lake after scoring twice in the opening 17 minutes. Ousseni Bouda put the home side ahead in the second minute, then Benjamin Kikanovic made it 2-0 in the 17th, assisted by Jamar Ricketts. Juan Sanabria pulled one back for Real Salt Lake in the 23rd, with Sam Junqua providing the assist. The score remained unchanged after that, and there were no red cards.
The teams had five shots on target each, while Real Salt Lake edged total shots 16-15. San Jose Earthquakes had the higher expected goals figure, 1.79 to 1.45, despite having less possession: 44% to 56%. O. Bouda was the top-rated player, with a rating of 8.2. The 2-1 result matched the pre-match model’s predicted score; it had put San Jose Earthquakes’ win chance at 49%, the draw at 24% and Real Salt Lake’s at 27%.
Goals
- 2'Ousseni Bouda · San Jose Earthquakes
- 17'Benjamin Kikanovic · Jamar Ricketts · San Jose Earthquakes
- 23'Juan Sanabria · Sam Junqua · Real Salt Lake
Cards
- 46'Reid Roberts · San Jose Earthquakes
- 60'N.Tsakiris · San Jose Earthquakes
- 63'Philip Quinton · Real Salt Lake
- 90+6'Alexandros Katranis · Real Salt Lake
Match stats
⭐ Top-rated player: O. Bouda (San Jose Earthquakes) 8.2
Ratings and statistics: API-Football.
Confirmed lineups
San Jose Earthquakes · 4-2-3-1
- 36E. EdwardsG
- 28B. KikanovicD
- 5D. MunieD
- 18R. RobertsD
- 4D. RomneyD
- 6I. HarkesM
- 20N. FernandezM
- 7O. BoudaM
- 10N. TsakirisM
- 2J. RickettsM
- 19P. JuddF
Coach: B. Arena
Real Salt Lake · 3-4-2-1
- 1Rafael CabralG
- 44L. De FougerollesD
- 15J. GladD
- 26P. QuintonD
- 11D. MarczukM
- 6S. SpieringsM
- 92N. CaliskanM
- 29S. JunquaM
- 12S. LobzhanidzeM
- 8J. SanabriaM
- 22S. SolansF
Coach: P. Mastroeni
Match facts
Recent form
Last 5 league games, latest on the right
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| San Jose Earthquakes | 1.7 | 1.5 |
| Real Salt Lake | 1.6 | 1.5 |
League position
| Pos | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | San Jose Earthquakes | 32 | +7 | 49 |
| 9 | Real Salt Lake | 32 | +1 | 42 |
Last meetings
- 2026Real Salt Lake1-1San Jose Earthquakes
- 2025Real Salt Lake2-1San Jose Earthquakes
- 2025San Jose Earthquakes4-0Real Salt Lake
- 2024San Jose Earthquakes0-1Real Salt Lake
- 2024Real Salt Lake0-2San Jose Earthquakes
Absences
San Jose Earthquakes
- OutN. Adimabua · Hernia
- OutD. Johnson · Lower-Body Injury
- OutD. Jones · Achilles Tendon Injury
- OutT. Werner · Red Card
- DoubtfulJ. A. Gonzalez Mendoza · Lower-Body Injury
Real Salt Lake
- OutE. Eneli · Knee Injury
- OutM. Guilavogui · Yellow Cards
- OutD. Luna · Knee Injury
- DoubtfulJ. J. Arias · Hamstring Injury
- DoubtfulG. Dillon · Foot Injury
- DoubtfulL. Engel · Hamstring Injury
PreviaXI model
Model confidence: Medium
- Predicted score
- 2-1
- Expected goals (model)
- 1.85 – 1.33
- Double chance
- 12 · 76%1X 73% · X2 51%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 62%Over 1.5: 83% · Over 3.5: 39%
- Both teams score
- 62%
- Clean sheet
- 26% – 16%San Jose Earthquakes–Real Salt Lake
- Half-time result
- 1 · 38%X 38% · 2 24%
- Half-time / full-time
- 1/1 · 31%2/2 16% · X/1 15%
- Expected corners
- 11.47.2 – 4.2 · Over 9.5: 69%
- Expected cards
- 4.72.3 – 2.4 · Over 3.5: 70%
- Most likely scores
- 1-111%
- 2-19%
- 1-07%
- 2-07%
- 1-27%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
A playoff-place meeting
San Jose Earthquakes’ recent run has been built around draws: they have shared the points in three of their last five league matches. Real Salt Lake, by contrast, arrive on a three-game winning streak. That makes this Regular Season - 33 meeting a test of whether the visitors can keep their momentum going against a higher-placed opponent.
Both sides have played 32 matches in the Western Conference. San Jose sit fifth on 49 points, seven clear of Real Salt Lake in ninth, who have 42. The standings put the hosts in the stronger position, while the visitors’ recent surge gives them a chance to close the gap.
Salt Lake’s sharper recent form
Real Salt Lake have taken three wins and a draw from their last five, scoring 10 goals and conceding five. Their latest league sequence ends with three consecutive victories, a notable change of pace after a season in which they have lost 14 of 32 matches.
San Jose have won once in their last five, alongside three draws and a defeat. They scored five and conceded eight across that stretch. Their season total of 54 goals is higher than Salt Lake’s 50, and they have been more productive at home, with 28 goals in 16 matches. Real Salt Lake’s away record is a concern: they have won three of 16 on the road and conceded 28.
Recent meetings offer little separation
The teams drew 1-1 in their most recent meeting on October 15. The previous four encounters were split, with two wins apiece. San Jose’s most emphatic result in that run was a 4-0 home victory in February 2025, while Salt Lake won 2-1 at home that July.
Absences on both sides
San Jose will be without N. Adimabua, D. Johnson and D. Jones, while T. Werner is suspended. J. A. Gonzalez Mendoza is questionable.
Real Salt Lake are missing E. Eneli, M. Guilavogui and D. Luna. J. J. Arias, G. Dillon and L. Engel are also listed as questionable.
San Jose’s home scoring threat
San Jose’s 28 home goals in 16 games provide a route to trouble Salt Lake’s defence, which has conceded 28 times away from home. The visitors, however, have scored 10 across their last five, so the hosts may need more than their recent defensive record to keep the winning run at bay.
Our prediction
Real Salt Lake’s momentum makes them a genuine threat, but San Jose’s home scoring record and stronger league position tilt the balance towards the hosts. PreviaXI’s model also favours San Jose, with both teams capable of finding the net.
San Jose Earthquakes 2-1 Real Salt Lake
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