Copa del Rey · Round of 128 
Our pick1–0
Numancia's steady start sets the tone against higher‑ranked Oviedo
Numancia arrive with mixed but stabilising league form as they prepare to face Segunda División side Oviedo in the Copa del Rey Round of 128. Recent meetings between the clubs suggest a tight, low‑scoring affair.
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Match report
Numancia and Oviedo drew 3-3 before Numancia won the penalty shootout 4-2. A. Aranzabe put Numancia ahead in the 42nd minute, and I. Leon made it 2-0 in the 57th. Oviedo replied through A. Isfan in the 74th minute and M. Goti Lopez two minutes later. Jony restored Numancia’s lead in the 86th, but M. Goti Lopez scored again in the 89th to take the match to penalties. Numancia prevailed in the shootout.
The available match statistics list five yellow cards for Numancia and two for Oviedo, with no corners recorded for either side. The final score differed from the pre-match model’s 1-0 prediction; its probabilities were 35% for a Numancia win, 32% for a draw and 33% for an Oviedo win.
Goals
- 42'A. Aranzabe · Numancia
- 57'I. Leon · Numancia
- 74'A. Isfan · Oviedo
- 76'M. Goti Lopez · Oviedo
- 86'Jony · Numancia
- 89'M. Goti Lopez · Oviedo
Cards
- 8'C. Moreno · Numancia
- 11'P. Cortes · Numancia
- 52'L. Roldan · Numancia
- 59'B. Lopez · Numancia
- 115'A. Isfan · Oviedo
- 118'V. Charlez · Numancia
Match stats
Ratings and statistics: API-Football.
Confirmed lineups
Numancia · 4-4-2
- 13Guille SúnicoG
- 22Marcos LopesD
- 5Fran GonzálezD
- 23Borja LópezD
- 27Sebastián Alejandro FloresD
- 4Pelayo SuarezD
- 14César MorenoM
- 17Aitor AranzabeM
- 19Iker León GutiérrezM
- 6Luis RoldánM
- 18Pablo CortésF
Oviedo · 4-4-2
- 1Miguel NarvaezG
- 15Samu RodríguezD
- 23Carlos DomínguezD
- 30Marco EstebanD
- 21David JiménezD
- 28Diego MenendezM
- 16Aritz AldasoroM
- 6Daniel VillahermosaM
- 11Jacobo GonzálezF
- 17Estanis PedrolaF
- 18Víctor MingoF
Match facts
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Numancia | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Oviedo | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Last meetings
- 2020Numancia1-0Oviedo
- 2019Oviedo1-1Numancia
- 2019Oviedo1-0Numancia
- 2019Numancia2-3Oviedo
- 2018Numancia3-0Oviedo
PreviaXI model
Model confidence: Open game
- Predicted score
- 1-0
- Expected goals (model)
- 1.01 – 0.96
- Double chance
- 12 · 68%1X 67% · X2 65%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 31%Over 1.5: 59% · Over 3.5: 14%
- Both teams score
- 40%
- Clean sheet
- 38% – 37%Numancia–Oviedo
- Half-time result
- X · 50%1 26% · 2 24%
- Half-time / full-time
- X/X · 23%1/1 20% · 2/2 18%
- Expected corners
- 9.55.5 – 4.0 · Over 9.5: 48%
- Expected cards
- 3.81.5 – 2.3 · Over 3.5: 53%
- Most likely scores
- 0-015%
- 1-114%
- 1-013%
- 0-113%
- 2-07%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
Numancia’s recent run
Numancia come into this Copa del Rey tie on the back of a steady league sequence: their domestic form reads LDDDW in Segunda División RFEF – Group 5, leaving them sixth with 13 points from eight matches. That run gives them confidence at home against higher‑level opposition.
What the tie means
This is a classic cup mismatch on paper: Numancia are a fourth‑tier side by competition level (Segunda División RFEF – Group 5) while Oviedo play in the Segunda División. For Numancia the tie is an opportunity to test themselves against professional second‑division opposition; for Oviedo a run in the Cup offers a chance to build momentum alongside their league campaign, where they sit ninth with 18 points from 11 games.
Oviedo’s form to note
Oviedo arrive with competitive recent results in the Segunda División, their league form showing DWWLW. That sequence underlines they are in reasonable shape on the road even if they are the higher‑ranked and favoured team by pedigree.
Recent meetings point to a tight game
The clubs’ last five meetings have been low‑scoring and close. Since 2018 the pair have met in Segunda División fixtures with results including Numancia wins (3-0 in 2018, 1-0 in 2020), an away 3-2 for Oviedo in 2019 and a 1-1 draw in October 2019. Those results suggest matches between these sides trend toward narrow margins and few goals.
Our prediction
PreviaXI’s model slightly favours a narrow Numancia win at home, with expected goals marginally in Numancia’s favour and a historical pattern of tight scorelines between the teams. Expect a disciplined home display and a contest decided by a single moment.
Numancia 1-0 Oviedo
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