Copa del Rey · Round of 128 
Our pick2–1Missed
Atlético Baleares vs Eldense — knockout stakes in Palma
Atlético Baleares sit eighth in the Segunda División RFEF with 10 points from eight games while Segunda División side Eldense have 14 points from 11 — a clash that pits lower-division home form against a higher-tier visitor with Copa progress on the line.
📍 Estadio Balear
Preview written:
Match report
Eldense advanced from their Copa del Rey Round of 128 tie with a 1-0 win away to Atlético Baleares. The match’s only goal came in the 58th minute, when I. Recio scored for Eldense. No assists or red cards were recorded.
The result was narrower than the PreviaXI pre-match view, which predicted a 2-1 win for Atlético Baleares. The model had given the home side a 42% chance of winning, compared with 26% for a draw and 32% for an Eldense victory.
Goals
- 58'I. Recio · Eldense
Cards
- 3'F. Montcheu · Atlético Baleares
- 36'M. Nieto · Eldense
- 44'I. Lopez · Atlético Baleares
- 68'Fofi · Atlético Baleares
- 76'R. Caballero · Atlético Baleares
- 90+4'J. Rastrojo · Eldense
- 90+7'J. Martin · Eldense
Match stats
Ratings and statistics: API-Football.
Confirmed lineups
Atlético Baleares · 5-3-2
- 13Julián RivasG
- 2Fabrice MontcheuD
- 8FofiD
- 18Iván López MartínezD
- 5Álvaro Martín EspiauD
- 16Hugo AngladaD
- 6Gerardo BonetM
- 22Miguel Soler FemeniasM
- 11MiguelitoF
- 19Adrian CataláF
- 17Ruben CatalaF
Eldense · 4-3-3
- 13Juan PalomaresG
- 23Jordi MartínD
- 2Iker RecioD
- 34Javier OlaizolaD
- 22Julien YandaD
- 19Alejandro IbarrondoD
- 6Borja CalvoM
- 14Justin SmithM
- 8Marcos BustilloM
- 11Manuel NietoF
- 29Dinis RodriguesF
Match facts
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Atlético Baleares | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Eldense | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Last meetings
- 2023Eldense2-1Atlético Baleares
- 2022Atlético Baleares3-1Eldense
PreviaXI model
Model confidence: Open game
- Predicted score
- 2-1
- Expected goals (model)
- 1.57 – 1.34
- Double chance
- 12 · 74%1X 68% · X2 58%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 56%Over 1.5: 79% · Over 3.5: 33%
- Both teams score
- 59%
- Clean sheet
- 26% – 21%Atlético Baleares–Eldense
- Half-time result
- X · 40%1 33% · 2 27%
- Half-time / full-time
- 1/1 · 25%2/2 19% · X/X 15%
- Most likely scores
- 1-112%
- 2-19%
- 1-08%
- 1-28%
- 0-17%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
What a tie means for each club
This is a straight knockout in the Copa del Rey and progression carries different rewards. Atlético Baleares, eighth in Segunda División RFEF (10 points from eight), can use a run in the cup to boost profile, revenue and momentum for a club from the fourth tier. For Eldense — 13th in the Segunda División with 14 points from 11 — advancing would consolidate confidence for a club operating one level higher and provide a chance to test squad depth against motivated, home advantage-fuelled opposition.
Momentum going into the tie
Recent domestic form paints contrasting pictures. Atlético Baleares’ league run reads W D D W D in their last five results, showing consistency in a tight group. Eldense have alternated results in the league with L W W W L across their last five, indicating a streaky side capable of quick rebounds. Both teams bring competitive domestic rhythms into the cup.
Familiarity from previous meetings
These sides met twice in the 2022–23 Primera División RFEF group. Eldense beat Atlético Baleares 2-1 in February 2023, while Atlético Baleares won 3-1 at home in October 2022. That short recent history suggests no shortage of tactical familiarity between the teams.
Our prediction
PreviaXI’s model favours a narrow home victory, with Atlético Baleares marginally stronger in expected chance creation at Estadio Balear. The game looks competitive and likely to be decided by fine margins — a tight first half and a decisive second-half moment for the hosts. Atlético Baleares 2-1 Eldense
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