Copa del Rey · Round of 128 
Our pick1–0Correct result
Copa del Rey tie where a win means momentum — Antequera vs Águilas
Antequera sit 13th in Primera División RFEF — nine games, 11 points — while Águilas are 17th on seven; a Copa del Rey victory would be an important boost for either side.
Preview written:
Match report
Antequera advanced with a 2-0 win over Águilas in the Copa del Rey. I. Dominguez opened the scoring in the 21st minute, assisted by A. Gene, giving Antequera the lead. A. Quintana added the second goal in the 69th minute to seal the result. No red cards were recorded.
No match statistics or top-rated player were provided, so the numbers offer no further comparison between the teams. The final score matched the model’s predicted 1-0 home win in terms of the winner, though Antequera scored one more goal than forecast; the pre-match view gave the hosts a 43% chance of winning, with a 28% chance of a draw and 29% for Águilas.
Goals
- 21'I. Dominguez · A. Gene · Antequera
- 69'A. Quintana · Antequera
Cards
- 19'Serpeta · Águilas
- 30'M. Bassele · Antequera
- 39'I. Dominguez · Antequera
- 71'Aguero · Antequera
Match facts
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Antequera | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Águilas | 0.0 | 0.0 |
PreviaXI model
Model confidence: Open game
- Predicted score
- 1-0
- Expected goals (model)
- 1.39 – 1.10
- Double chance
- 12 · 72%1X 71% · X2 57%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 46%Over 1.5: 72% · Over 3.5: 24%
- Both teams score
- 51%
- Clean sheet
- 33% – 25%Antequera–Águilas
- Half-time result
- X · 44%1 32% · 2 24%
- Half-time / full-time
- 1/1 · 25%X/X 18% · 2/2 16%
- Most likely scores
- 1-113%
- 1-011%
- 0-09%
- 2-19%
- 0-18%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
What progression buys each club
Antequera are 13th in Primera División RFEF – Group 2 with 11 points from nine matches; Águilas sit 17th with seven points. In a Round of 128 Copa del Rey tie, advancement is more than a minor cup win: for Antequera it would provide a lift to a mid-table side trying to convert a mixed league run into momentum, while for Águilas a cup scalp would be a notable morale and statement boost amid a troubled league position.
Recent trajectories and form lines
League form underlines the stakes. Antequera arrive with a league sequence of DLDDW, showing resilience after a win and a run of draws mixed with defeats. Águilas have a DLDLL sequence, a run that reads more like a side struggling for consistency and points. Neither side has played cup fixtures recorded this season, so rotational choices and match fitness from league action will shape selection.
Tactical outlook
PreviaXI’s model favours Antequera and projects a narrow, low-scoring contest. The model’s expected-goals projection gives Antequera a slight edge, suggesting they will create marginally better chances at home. Águilas are capable of keeping the tie tight and look set to rely on organisation and counter opportunities; on paper this should be a compact affair where a single goal could decide progression.
Our prediction
This looks like a close cup tie in which home marginal advantages and a need for confidence tilt the balance. Expect Antequera to edge a tight game with limited openings; set-pieces or a single breakaway are plausible decisive moments. The prediction follows PreviaXI’s model projection.
Antequera 1-0 Águilas
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