Our pick0–1Correct result
Both clubs top their leagues — a Copa del Rey knockout with promotion momentum at stake
Conquense and Castellón both arrive as leaders of their respective divisions, turning this Round of 128 tie into a high-stakes test of ambition: a lower-division giant-killing or a favourite stamping authority.
Preview written:
Match report
Castellón beat Conquense 3-0 in the Copa del Rey, with all three goals coming before the final stages. A. Garcia opened the scoring in the 33rd minute, and A. Gala added a second four minutes later. A. Garcia completed his brace in the 62nd minute to make it 3-0. Castellón were reduced to ten men when Tincho was sent off in the 53rd minute; Conquense also finished with ten after M. Koita saw red in the 78th.
The match recorded no corners, while the red-card count was one for each team. The 3-0 result was more emphatic than the pre-match model’s predicted 0-1, which gave Castellón a 48% chance of winning, compared with 25% for Conquense and 27% for a draw.
Goals
- 33'A. Garcia · Castellón
- 37'A. Gala · Castellón
- 62'A. Garcia · Castellón
Cards
- 40'L. Alcazar · Castellón
- 53'Tincho · Castellón
- 56'A. Gala · Castellón
- 61'G. Terma · Conquense
- 78'M. Koita · Conquense
Match stats
Ratings and statistics: API-Football.
Confirmed lineups
Conquense · 4-2-3-1
- 1Dani AtanesG
- 2Álex GarcíaD
- 4Santiago PereaD
- 15Moussa KoitaD
- 3Alejandro Alcira MarcoD
- 22Vique Domingos GomesM
- 16Guillem TermaM
- 17Álvaro MerencioM
- 29Kevin DioufM
- 11Luis RivasM
- 18Gustavo HerreraF
Castellón · 4-4-2
- 1Amir SaipiG
- 20Tincho CondeD
- 15Ilias KostisD
- 11Federico CeccheriniD
- 12Lucas AlcazarD
- 25Jari VlakM
- 27Antonio GalaM
- 19Hamza BellariM
- 26Rodrigo RegoF
- 7Raúl SánchezF
- 23Alvaro GarciaF
Match facts
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Conquense | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Castellón | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Last meetings
- 2018Castellón1-0Conquense
PreviaXI model
Model confidence: Medium
- Predicted score
- 0-1
- Expected goals (model)
- 1.01 – 1.49
- Double chance
- X2 · 75%1X 52% · 12 73%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 46%Over 1.5: 72% · Over 3.5: 24%
- Both teams score
- 50%
- Clean sheet
- 22% – 36%Conquense–Castellón
- Half-time result
- X · 43%1 21% · 2 36%
- Half-time / full-time
- 2/2 · 29%X/X 17% · X/2 17%
- Most likely scores
- 1-113%
- 0-112%
- 1-29%
- 0-29%
- 0-09%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
Double leaders set the tone
Both teams sit first in their domestic competitions: Conquense lead Segunda División RFEF Group 5, while Castellón top the Segunda División. That shared position makes this early Copa del Rey tie unusually charged — progression means different things for each club at different rungs of Spanish football.
What advancing would mean
For Conquense, a win would be a statement of intent from the fourth tier, an opportunity to raise the club’s profile and build momentum amid an encouraging league start. For Castellón, already leading the second tier, moving on would reinforce their status as promotion contenders and deliver confidence against lower-league opposition ahead of a busy league schedule.
Recent form under the microscope
Castellón arrive with consistent league form — labelled WWLDW — and 26 points from 11 matches. Conquense have also begun strongly in their division (WDWLW) and have 17 points from eight. Those records underline why both managers will take this tie seriously despite the gap between divisions.
Past meeting
Their most recent recorded clash came in the Copa del Rey in 2018, when Castellón won 1-0. That narrow cup victory for the visitors is the only result on record between these sides in this dataset.
Tactical edge and prediction rationale
PreviaXI’s model favours Castellón and projects a tight, low-scoring game: Castellón create slightly more chances and look the more polished unit against a spirited but lower-league Conquense. The numbers point to a narrow away win rather than a high-scoring upset; Castellón’s second-tier experience should be decisive in a cup tie that could hinge on one clinical moment.
Our prediction
A close cup tie where the visitors’ quality nudges the result. Expect a cautious Conquense approach and a Castellón side content to strike on limited openings.
Conquense 0-1 Castellón

