Newcastle and Everton seek the edge in a tight table

A one-point gap

Newcastle begin the Premier League’s ninth round in 11th place with 11 points from eight matches. Everton are 14th on 10 points, so there is little separating the sides in the table—and a result at St James’ Park could give either club a valuable edge.

Newcastle’s goal difference is -2, while Everton’s is -1. The hosts have scored 12 goals in eight league games, compared with Everton’s eight, but both arrive with reasons to seek a shift in momentum.

Contrasting recent returns

Newcastle’s last five matches brought six goals for and 10 against. Their eight-game league record stands at three wins, two draws and three defeats, while their last five have brought two wins and three defeats.

Everton have scored three times and conceded six across their last five. They have two wins, four draws and two defeats in the league, although one win, two draws and two defeats in their last five show a mixed run. Their season scoring rate is lower, but they have conceded nine goals, five fewer than Newcastle.

Everton have had the recent edge

Everton won 3-1 against Newcastle in the League Cup on October 29, the latest of five recent meetings listed. They also won the most recent Premier League encounter between the clubs, 3-2 in February.

Newcastle’s clearest response in that run was a 4-1 away win in November 2025. With the latest meetings producing goals, the history adds another layer to a contest where the league gap remains only one point.

Fitness questions for both sides

Newcastle will be without E. Jaouen, who has a muscle injury, and V. Livramento, who has a knee injury. M. Fernandez-Pardo and L. Miley are questionable with illness and a muscle injury respectively, while W. Osula is also a doubt with an ankle problem.

Everton’s J. Grealish is questionable because of illness.

Newcastle’s chance to turn pressure into goals

Newcastle have averaged 1.5 goals per league match, including at home, and have scored six times in four home games. The concern is their defensive record: they have conceded 14 across eight league fixtures and 10 in the last five matches alone.

Everton’s away scoring average is 0.8 goals per game, but their lower overall goals-against total suggests they can make this uncomfortable. Newcastle’s greater attacking output gives the hosts a narrow route to the decisive edge.

Our prediction

Newcastle’s stronger scoring record and home production point towards a close victory, even as Everton’s recent results against them underline the risk. PreviaXI’s model also leans towards the hosts, with both teams capable of finding the net.

Newcastle 2-1 Everton