2–0 Full time Saturday 31 October

Our pick2–1Correct result

Bournemouth-Leeds preview: A history of goals and hard-to-separate sides

Recent meetings between Bournemouth and Leeds have produced plenty of goals, including two consecutive 2-2 draws. Bournemouth’s home edge meets Leeds’ steadier defensive form in a fixture that has rarely lacked drama.

📍 Vitality Stadium

Preview written: Fri 30 Oct 02:06

All Matchday 9 matches Full head-to-head

Match report

Bournemouth beat Leeds 2-0. Francisco Evanilson opened the scoring in the 31st minute, assisted by Justin Kluivert. The hosts added a second in stoppage time, with Amine Adli scoring in the 90+4th minute after a pass from Eli Kroupi. There were no red cards.

Leeds had more possession, 56% to Bournemouth’s 44%, but Bournemouth led the shots-on-target count 5-1 and registered the higher expected-goals figure, 1.28 to 0.69. The teams had four corners each. Evanilson was the top-rated player, with a 7.9 rating. The result matched the model’s predicted Bournemouth win, though its projected score was 2-1; it gave Bournemouth a 48% win probability, with 26% each for a draw and a Leeds win.

Goals

31'Francisco Evanilson · Justin Kluivert · Bournemouth
90+4'Amine Adli · Eli Kroupi · Bournemouth

Cards

35'Nico Elvedi · Leeds
35'Daniel Farke · Leeds
45+2'Ryan Christie · Bournemouth
62'Ethan Ampadu · Leeds
74'Tyler Adams · Bournemouth

Match stats

BournemouthLeeds

44%Possession56%

11Shots10

5Shots on target1

1.28Expected goals (xG)0.69

4Corners4

12Fouls15

0Offsides1

1Saves3

⭐ Top-rated player: Evanilson (Bournemouth) 7.9

Ratings and statistics: API-Football.

Confirmed lineups

Bournemouth · 4-2-3-1

1Đ. PetrovićG
15A. SmithD
5J. HillD
14António SilvaD
3A. TruffertD
12T. AdamsM
10R. ChristieM
37RayanM
19J. KluivertM
16M. TavernierM
9EvanilsonF

Coach: M. Rose

Leeds · 3-4-2-1

1J. TraffordG
24J. JustinD
30N. ElvediD
5T. MuharemovićD
2J. BogleM
4E. AmpaduM
22A. TanakaM
3G. GudmundssonM
10H. WilsonM
7D. JamesM
9D. Calvert-LewinF

Coach: D. Farke

Match facts

Recent form

BournemouthDLLWW

LeedsWDLDD

Last 5 league games, latest on the right

Goals per game

·	Scored	Conceded
Bournemouth	1.5	1.6
Leeds	1.1	0.8

League position

Pos	Team	P	GD	Pts
7	Leeds	8	+3	11
13	Bournemouth	8	-1	9

Last meetings

2026Bournemouth2-2Leeds
2025Leeds2-2Bournemouth
2023Bournemouth4-1Leeds
2022Leeds4-3Bournemouth
2015Leeds1-0Bournemouth

Absences

Bournemouth

OutJ. Araujo · Thigh Injury
OutA. Scott · Thigh Injury
OutA. Toth · Muscle Injury

Leeds

OutM. Joseph · Knee Injury
OutJ. Rodon · Muscle Injury
DoubtfulN. Elvedi · Illness
DoubtfulD. James · Back Injury

PreviaXI model

Bournemouth48%Draw26%Leeds26%

Model confidence: Medium

Predicted score: 2-1
Expected goals (model): 1.75 – 1.24
Double chance: 1X · 74%12 74% · X2 52%
Over 2.5 goals: 57%Over 1.5: 81% · Over 3.5: 35%
Both teams score: 60%
Clean sheet: 29% – 17%Bournemouth–Leeds
Half-time result: X · 39%1 37% · 2 24%
Half-time / full-time: 1/1 · 30%X/1 15% · X/X 15%
Expected corners: 9.95.7 – 4.2 · Over 9.5: 53%
Expected cards: 3.92.0 – 1.9 · Over 3.5: 56%
Most likely scores: 1-112%
2-110%
2-08%
1-07%
1-27%

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →

Bournemouth seek a response at home

Bournemouth head into Saturday’s Premier League meeting after a mixed start to the season, with two wins, three draws and three defeats from eight matches. Their latest league sequence is more encouraging: two wins followed by a draw, lifting them to 13th on nine points. Leeds are seventh with 11 points, having lost only once in their opening eight.

The recent head-to-head record offers the clearest story. These sides drew 2-2 at Bournemouth in April and shared another 2-2 at Leeds last September. Their previous five meetings have also included a 4-1 Bournemouth win and a 4-3 Leeds victory, making this a pairing with a habit of producing goals at both ends.

Contrasting recent form

Bournemouth have scored eight and conceded eight across their last five matches. At home this season, they have taken one win and two draws from four games, scoring five goals and allowing four.

Leeds’ last five have been more controlled: six goals scored and four conceded. Their overall record is two wins, five draws and one defeat, while they have collected one win and two draws from four away matches. Leeds have conceded just six goals in eight league games, a defensive record that could test Bournemouth’s attacking threat.

A goal-rich recent rivalry

The 2-2 draws in the last two meetings suggest neither side has found it easy to shut the other out. Earlier results underline the volatility: Bournemouth won 4-1 in April 2023, while Leeds edged a 4-3 contest in November 2022. The older 1-0 Leeds win in the Championship is a reminder that not every encounter has been open, but the recent Premier League pattern points toward another competitive game.

Absences on both sides

Bournemouth are without J. Araujo and A. Scott with thigh injuries, while A. Toth is missing with a muscle injury. Leeds will be without M. Joseph and J. Rodon, and N. Elvedi and D. James are questionable.

Players to watch

Bournemouth’s recent attacking output gives them reason to be confident at home: they have scored eight times in their last five matches, and their season total stands at 12. Leeds have shown less firepower, with nine league goals, but their defensive record has been notably stronger.

Our prediction

The recent meetings point to goals, but Leeds’ defensive resilience should make this more closely contested than the 4-3 and 4-1 results in the longer record. PreviaXI’s model leans toward Bournemouth, whose home advantage and stronger scoring numbers give them the edge in a narrow win.

Bournemouth 2-1 Leeds

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